Thursday, March 05, 2009

"I really can't tell you why all the bearish arguments are wrong..."

"I really can't tell you why all the BULLISH arguments are wrong; all I know is that I'm shorting hysteria"

[James Rogers]

Not only stock market keeps sliding for the last 20 days (never mind convulsive jumps to the top of descending hourly channel), but out of 20 days it opened gap down 7 times...SEVEN TIMES - that IS hysteria, if it is not - I need to reassess my views on rational/irrational - that will not come easy.

So, 693 has been breached again, it most likely will be retaken back tomorrow, but it is not an utmost importance question now - while market was sliding, new buy signal was generated and is due to go in full force tomorrow. Not to mention that next week completing BUY signal. As I mentioned before - time is more important than the price, I think - it is TIME now.

It is not for the faint of heart, it is not for someone who has no discipline to cut losses when "theory" is not working...

That hourly channel has gotten REALLY boring, everyone is trading it (just like 810 "long term support" area on SPY) - it is time to "surprise" traders and take market to a different level. Last few days were not particularly good day trading days for me, I am longer term "long biased" - kept "spitting against the wind" - cost of doing business and trying to catch longer term move.

We will know soon...

P.S. XLI caught my eye today (it is not on my "daily watch")

It has completed trend change/exhaustion signal on weekly and about to post "momentum exhaustion" on weekly for the next week - along with many other ETFs...daily buy is pointing to Monday...

This was/is a brutal week - my long positions are bleeding - that is definitely too huge of a falling sword to try to catch.