Tuesday, November 24, 2009

When the smoke clears?

art-with-smoke-1

 

Caught myself on very unsetting thought – for over 2 months I’ve been wasting time, energy and money trying to catch a major move, and, in fact, even manor ones, even those that I did manage to capitalize on – did not worth time spent and mental energy drained.

 

Topping or basing – it does not matter, since mid September SPX is up stunning 55 points – slightly more than 5.5% – under traditional 7-8% stop any self respecting trend trader will have in place.

 

Speaking of individual stocks – it has been even more obvious monkey business – look at all short portfolio “opened” on September 14th – as of today’s close it is down whapping 

-0.56% !

 

Counting that it includes few stocks which would have been stopped out long time ago (marked with blue arrow, even based on 10% stop) and in this case, that all short portfolio would be at about  5% gain while $SPX is up 5.5%!

 

2009-11-24_2133 

WHY ARE WE RACING OURSELVES TO DEATH TRYING TO FIND THAT ILLUSIVE INEXISTING TRADE???

 

This is one of the very few real advantages of retail trader – having luxury not to trade when we don’t have to or there is nothing to trade!

Why do we keep running after these small bits and pieces and by the time next big trade will reveal itself we are totally exhausted – mentally and monetary?

 

What is wrong with us?

 

How did we know that there was going to be no “strong directional trade”?

Too many people were waiting for it, market gurus were calling for it, common sense traders were arguing it was unavoidable (what market has to do with “common sense”?) and, most importantly – market is the very last “sealed door” separating existing political system from anger of awakening mob – and it will not be pretty, not this time, so – who would dig the pit for themselves letting market down sharply or consistently?  Forget the dollar - “they” already bought villas in Paraguay and moved gold in safe places, screw the dollar. (not even speaking of monthly SPX TDSetup counts due to complete in January)

 

End of rant.

 

Chart of $VIX – right at support, this week marks possible 13 of buy countdown.

2009-11-24_2141

Few observations

New intraday high on (SPY) yesterday was rejected, same for (DIA) – both closed below prior high close, (QQQQ) continues to lag, none of above 3 reset in progress TDSetup Buy counts, all at important trendlines, all “somebody” are on vacation already (I spent day in New York City bar hopping with ole’ friends of mine…those who still has not died from excessive drinking or other not so natural reasons :)

 

I think market will be going lower till the end of November at least and I’ll take it from there…

Am I trying to call direction again???

 

 11/25/2009

Futures approx. BO

 

 

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1093.25

1105.25

SPX

1096.68

1106.61

/NQ

1772

1790.25

NDX

1773.14

1789.22

/DX

74.875

75.335

 

Quite a day (morning) tomorrow…do we really care?  We decided that market will go down tomorrow – did not we?

 

2009-11-24_2200 http://www.forexfactory.com

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