Thursday, November 05, 2009

Needle in Haystack

As we head into tomorrow morning's Non-farm payroll numbers after a big "up" day, it's time to take a look at potential trading set-ups for tomorrow's session. So many good charts with channels, wedges, counts and more have already been shared by other TTW traders, I'm just going to share a closer look at short-term Fib and backtest possibilities, aka my needle in the haystack.

Many have mentioned the lack of volume today, and of course you can't argue the facts, but we also know the history of this rally has been low volume on moves up, so like the good trading soldiers we are, no excuses, Sir! If anything it was a good signal today that the move in price was pretty bullish based on recent history, "if" we remind ourselves that the lion's share of moves up have occurred on low volume. It's almost a no-brainer, and consider me an empty-head because I went short, covered with a profit, and went short again like an idiot who sticks her hand in the fire. Why am I being hard on myself? Because if I'm not, who will be? I put pieces together last week based on patterns and time cycles for a partial retracement to carry through until at least Friday, but oh no.... I thought I could outsmart myself. Doh! So... tomorrow is another day and that good 'ol dry powder will be my saving grace, and congrats to those of you who traded this long today, very well done! Okay.. chart time, with Fib resistance and backtest possible.
Note on TRAN- you'll see overlapping Fibs- one is the recent move, the other is the high from 6/08 to the low of March '09, so this level represents double Fib resistance, and so far it has not surpassed it.

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar: NF Payroll 8:30 AM, Consumer Credit 3:00 PM

Note to self: You can't hurry love, and you can't hurry this tape while
it plays out either...




DDT here.

From D-Wave perspective – nothing changed since yesterday, quite opposite -  market continues to work its way up in wB hourly which started on 11/2 (and was identifiable, no matter how “B”ish B will get – it is still “B”.  Whipsaws, fakes – it is what B is all about.  Repeat after me - ‘B” – pain in the neck to trade, but we are doing our best.  May be slightly higher open tomorrow or move up from the open and we’ll resume downside move in hourly C.


73 min 18 min
2009-11-05_2141 2009-11-05_2151_001
2009-11-05_2141_001 2009-11-05_2151
2009-11-05_2149 2009-11-05_2150







blog comments OCCASIONALLY powered by Disqus