Thursday, July 18, 2013

Just one chart (SPX) or WILL it break 1700?

I will not be talking about new highs, I will just mention 1700 on (SPX) viewed as a "done deal", but market does what it does best - tricks everyone into thinking that individual is smarter than the market. So - IF, and I say "IF" market is ready to correct for real (not measly deceiving no more existing what thought to be as A down wave (was not it amazing how the MOMENT conditions for A were satisfied - bounce started? Note to myself - next time treat it as prelude to bear trap and new highs - and, for G-gs sake - be patient when running in front of the freight train) - so if market is to correct for "real" - tomorrow is the best day to start it.

Whole numbers tend to fail after idea fixe been realized, so I think even after GOOG miss - on (SPX) we might see momentary touch of 1700 and then slide will start.

Slowly at first, but predictably accelerating in the process.

Well, my money is where my mouth is, at this moment I do not like that taste - feels like blood ( I started to rebuild short position when "wave B" which is no more, but that lured me into short on July 5 Friday and I have been trading around it adding shorts as market went higher - truth to be said - if not my UCO long position from June 25th - I would not be so comfortable numb. But I believe (otherwise why would I be still short) that my patience will repay in spades and since I kept adding long term out of money puts when VIX was so low and puts had practically no delta - I might just hit it big again)


Anyhow - if you will take a look at the charts posted on July 8th - my price targets have been reached across the board - see yellow squares and it is time to start making money on the short side.

And this chart shows that exact AB-CD completed as well as TDSequential Countdown completed recently and since there was TDSetup Sell in progress I did not care too much for that, but today TDSetup Sell printed 9 ( please note - on the 2 days chart)



P.S. I am thinking about reopening short position in /YG if spot moves closer to 1300 tomorrow morning


UPDATE:   I took a better look at gold and silver ... well, my downside target for gold was around 1100, I covered short /YG at 1200sh ... the problem is I used GLD as a proxy and looking at it right now - I will NOT go short neither gold, nor silver.

Even more (I am not ashamed to reverse my opinion - I am here not to be right, I am here to make myself money ... well if any of the readers will learn something or opposite - will learn not to do what I do - it is a bonus ) - so, I might even go long /YG and most definitely I will buy physical gold from Provident Metals (my dealer of choice) to replenish my position which I sold out (yes - to the same provident Metals on the very not good terms, but better than pawn shop indeed) back in  the fall of 2012 (yeah, I know, it is insanely long time to be short something, but I found that much better profits are made when you "stay with the trend - jeez - I have evolved from active almost/sometimes day trader to someone who appreciate time and as a bonus makes more money with less stress ))

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