Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Back to the plan "A"

 

2013-08-18_1219[2]

Chart above was posted on August 18th

S&P500 (SPX) A-B-C corrective D-Wave dates and targets

 

Then on August 21st morning I think I posted on Disqus that, in a nutshell,

wave "A" is about to "print" and I will be easing on my short positions,

because usually when new wave "prints" there is an immediate reaction, might be not long lasting, but there is one.

http://www.trading-to-win.com/2013/08/quick-update.html#comment-1010824831

 

What puzzled me at that time (Aug 21st) was that SPX did not get to 2 days TDST around 1606 area and did not get even remotely close to that "gold channel". Coupled with model of my friend who is a very gifted mathematician that called for bottom around Aug 23rd - I decided "that was it" ... never easy.

But now we are back on original track and - surprise - since wave B takes close higher (in this case) than prior 8 closes - I think that "another top around Sep 9th" is still plausible.

I made 5 /es points this morning on a long side and then went long twice via shorting SPXS - as a result I broke even for the day ... duh...

When prior low was penetrated and in a while after it did not hold ( that was when I closed second losing trade) - I went short into tomorrow, my expectation is that in the morning there will be slight continuation of today's selloff and I will try to cover as close to 1610-15 as possible and might even go long till .... broken record - September 9th+, though I was punished time and again for trading against trend ... which is down since August 2nd. But temptation is strong - right shoulder might be forming.

 

Of course, I could say "I wish I stayed short", but I have no regrets, I needed a brake from trading (yeah, right - what about long /cl on Aug 19 ... or 20th - can not even remember).

And I believe that I will have a chance to reshort at slightly better price again - time will tell.

My final target for the end of this correction into mid-end of October is still in SPX 1450 area

To sum it up: tomorrow or the day after tomorrow - when SPX gets as close to 1606 I will cover today's position and leftovers of original short position (not much, but by holding into it I locked in some extra profits)

And either will go lightly long or will just sit and wait September to remember.

 

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