Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Back to the plan "A"



Chart above was posted on August 18th

S&P500 (SPX) A-B-C corrective D-Wave dates and targets


Then on August 21st morning I think I posted on Disqus that, in a nutshell,

wave "A" is about to "print" and I will be easing on my short positions,

because usually when new wave "prints" there is an immediate reaction, might be not long lasting, but there is one.



What puzzled me at that time (Aug 21st) was that SPX did not get to 2 days TDST around 1606 area and did not get even remotely close to that "gold channel". Coupled with model of my friend who is a very gifted mathematician that called for bottom around Aug 23rd - I decided "that was it" ... never easy.

But now we are back on original track and - surprise - since wave B takes close higher (in this case) than prior 8 closes - I think that "another top around Sep 9th" is still plausible.

I made 5 /es points this morning on a long side and then went long twice via shorting SPXS - as a result I broke even for the day ... duh...

When prior low was penetrated and in a while after it did not hold ( that was when I closed second losing trade) - I went short into tomorrow, my expectation is that in the morning there will be slight continuation of today's selloff and I will try to cover as close to 1610-15 as possible and might even go long till .... broken record - September 9th+, though I was punished time and again for trading against trend ... which is down since August 2nd. But temptation is strong - right shoulder might be forming.


Of course, I could say "I wish I stayed short", but I have no regrets, I needed a brake from trading (yeah, right - what about long /cl on Aug 19 ... or 20th - can not even remember).

And I believe that I will have a chance to reshort at slightly better price again - time will tell.

My final target for the end of this correction into mid-end of October is still in SPX 1450 area

To sum it up: tomorrow or the day after tomorrow - when SPX gets as close to 1606 I will cover today's position and leftovers of original short position (not much, but by holding into it I locked in some extra profits)

And either will go lightly long or will just sit and wait September to remember.


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