Monday, October 19, 2009

Hanging in Suspense

Most of you that know me, know I'm not a perma-bull or perma-bear, but in all honestly I'm more than ready for a correction at this point. I continue to be befuddled by some of the moves I'm seeing on this tape, and although I have no problem taking profits in either direction, every time I do trade to the long side I feel like I'm really pressing my good fortune. Because of that, I'm probably not allowing my winners to run like I normally would either, but I have no time to look back. I'm a daytrader/scalper at heart anyway, but it would be nice to really just sit in a position for more than 15-30 minutes, and I'm sure a lot of you feel the same right about now. What's left to say at this point? We're at yet another level of resistance, be it a wedge, a Fibonacci, a wave count.. the whole enchilada, but we have to be patient and let this story write itself. My arms are getting pretty tired of hanging on the rope though, as I'm leaning into the short side.

SPX- this is the same simple weekly chart I posted last week with the 100 SMA. The value has moved down slightly from 1106 to 1103.17. I've marked the divergence on the MACD oscillator, but that story is getting worn out like the boy who cried wolf.

As I mentioned yesterday regarding oil- look for it to hit $80, and by gosh, today it went to 80.05 before pulling back slightly. Copper is also pressing 300, so keep an eye on that chart too. $TRAN, however is still lagging behind
... but not by much.

The Baltic Dry Index is also coming into some resistance again:

With AAPL going parabolic this afternoon, we'll have to see if the Fib resistance will hold on the Qs or not. I have two Fibs to watch: the first is based on the low set in November '08 and prints at 43.60, with the second one close by from the March lows at 43.92. Both are the .618 retracement. Tomorrow there will be several DOW components reporting before the bell. Will they beat or will they fail.. we'll know soon enough. On tap will be: KO, DD, PFE, UTX, CAT

One last thing I wanted to share was an indicator Gred mentioned. I personally rely on the 5 EMA myself when scalping or short term swing trading. I think as traders we sometimes over-think it all when it can be this simple at times.

Rest up traders... flu season is upon us, so be sure to take extra good care of yourself, as this work can really cause some stress at times and wear you down. I'll be with you in the trenches tomorrow- and thank you for all of your help today! ~Keirsten




Futures approx. BO



Daily Range Projection
















Please, refer to any of DeMark books listed in sidebars for proper understanding of usage – trading interpretation depends heavily on “where it will open, where it will trade first etc” – these are NOT curved in the rock ranges.

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