Patience

First of all, I'm really impressed that we have a group of traders here who can really manage to step away from their computers on a weekend and exploit a little free time. We had quite a week, and I don't know about the rest of you, but my brain feels like it's been playing Twister for about a week. Still... there is always a little bit of anticipation after a week like that and where we go next, but patience remains an important element so we can all keep our wits about us. That's one smart black cat over there- he waits, knowing that eventually what he wants will come out, and so will we. If it's a bounce, a resumption, further slide you want ... it will come to those who wait. I really don't have any "ah-ha" charts to share today, but just a few basics on tap. Zig Zag, on the other hand is sharing another one of his masterpieces, and has been teasing me that he has something even prettier on the VIX for us, so hopefully by tomorrow we'll see what he has up his sleeve. In the meanwhile, here are a few of my simple simon charts, without belaboring hundreds of other indicator charts we all watch each and every day. Please do post them to share with us- as it not only opens our eyes to new things and new possibilities, but definitely takes the work load off as well, and is always very much appreciated by one and all. See you all tomorrow, with more to come. Have a great Saturday evening TTW Crew! ~Keirsten

Zig Zag's Roadmap

The Rout

Shorts gone wild!!! I will post some charts either later on tonight or tomorrow for certain, but for now it's time to take a short break away from the tape/charts. Please keep your good thoughts and prayers directed for our DDT this weekend (note how he's still cracking jokes no matter how sick he must be feeling- you have to love that about him!) Also, please keep Squiddy and his friend in your thoughts as well. We'll huddle together and map out the next steps for Monday and beyond over the weekend. Thanks to every one of you for fantastic analysis, input, charts and good laughs amongst good trading buddies here. Enjoy your weekend and go hug someone you love if you've had a good week, because that's why we fight this battle every day and that's really what life is all about. ~Keirsten

Trick or Treat

SPX managed to send 100% of the gains from yesterday to the graveyard- and it seems like we've got some fairly good swing trading price action from day to day building up to something. What that "something" is remains to be seen, but I have a hunch today will give us more clarity. For now, it's as clear as mud, but we're at end of month and for many funds- end of fiscal year today, so perhaps we'll see them release the monster and scare this tape down, once and for all.... let's just hope it's not another trick.

We have a pattern worth watching today on UUP that could very well turn out to be a nice little treat for those who are short. I know we have quite a few traders who swing the metals and miners, and GLD is at another critical point at the trend line today...

[voice from the basement]

Hi gang, DDT here, would like to say few things before going quietly into the night of the hospital.

1. Keirsten did it again! At 11:07 she did yet another “it is so boring today” post and market plunged right the moment she pressed “publish” button.

2. Glad I held through yesterday’s mayhem – I would have no chance to reload today and I would feel extremely violated should I missed this move.

3. Next TDST support daily SPY 102 area, today marker might attempt to make it back to 105 to kiss it long time good night. (Looks like while I was typing it just did its best)

4. Comments count is unacceptably low today – and it is very good, it tells me that some people make money and don’t want to talk about it (if we’ll know where your money is – we will come and get it, right?) or at least not losing any money today (happens when that was done yesterday)

5. I was told I need to get hooked up to some “respiratory machine” and was assured that my stay will not be long and that is the way I like it – pull the plug and go with honor.

See you all on another side (did I say something wrong ….again???)

Surprise!!! Surprise???

Here is the chart I posted to Disqus thread around 3PM on Oct 28th with comment something like “Bounce is coming, it will be wB (B and 4 are famous to rid you of your profits in no time) – TDSetup Buy completing soon on hourly chart”

Also, as I mentioned in my last video – 105 area is a TDST Support on daily for current TDSetup Sell.

 

Here is the same as of today’s close (Note TDST Resistance at 107.21)

 

 

107.21 is in line with Keirsten’s “triple  resistance

 

So, lets call it “Quadruple Resistance” now

Within few hours tomorrow (at most  “few hours”) – SPY should stop its ascend at that area and close below 106.91 (if so happen – ongoing TDSetup buy Daily will not be interrupted)

 

Over and out

DavidDT

 

8:37AM EDT Oct 30th ‘09

10/30/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1049.25	1076
SPX	1054	1078.04
/NQ	1692.50	1728.25
NDX	1698.60	1725.66

Some Days are Slower Than Others

It's a funny thing how traders sometimes have to hurry up and wait for the next "thing" to happen, and this day sure feels that way so far. Then again, the last few times I've said this, everything starts moving again, so I'll take a hit for the team. :-) Here is a quick look at the potential backtest of the broken July trend line, as well as an intra-day look at the "old" channel. I'm also posting a potential roadmap for nothing more than a projection of what could happen, but it's just that... conjecture.





































So.... with that, it's probably a good idea not to be too impatient or hurry things along, as you never know what might happen if you do.

 

 

DDT here – quick buck for you…I meant quick chart of buck for you

“Change” – you can put that to MY bank.

And few changes there are.
First – I finally gave up on my presence at EvilSpeculator.com
No, I was NOT banned – I am very surprised I was not – number of sarcastic remarks and constant contradiction to a lot of bears there remotely close to mine would have caused a lot of others (and it did) to be gone forever.
I just had as much of “Napoleon Complex” as I could possible tolerate – you know – that stuff: “My charts are better than yours, my black boxes are finer than theirs, my dick is bigger than yours, people hate me because I am beautiful….” (Pretty much the same reason why I “banned myself” from SOH long time ago – you know…”My house is bigger than yours, my account size is bigger than yours, my shorts are great – no I closed those right before rally” – screw it – go trade for a living day in day out without having paycheck from your owner – OK?)
And what’s with “MY troops”?  I am a grown up and I have made difficult choices in my life, last time I was in someone’s “troop” was back in Russia when I was sent for slaughter in Afghanistan and that almost invisible scar on my chest still reminds me that I will NOT be anyone's private no more.
I guess, my posting of George Carlin’s video clip just yesterday was in a way prophetic  - so let me do it again for those who missed it.

‘nuf said

I expect bounce today, IF this correction is here to stay for longer than priors’ period – wB up will be very flat – that will equally screw longs who hope to close at the better prices and shorts who hope to short at the better levels (most of shorts missed it while dick swinging)



Rydex Market Timers’ action confirm that this is, least to say, more serious and prolonged correction than any prior from March lows.

As you can see from Upper Price Projections – bounce to round numbers/retest to be expected.

10/29/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1025.75	1050.75
SPX	1031.92	1052.95
/NQ	1655.75	1700.75
NDX	1661	1700.94

Last, but not least I’d like you to look at springheel_jack’s chart (it is a huge benefit of having good community here – I can use someone else’s charts instead of my own “weally weally noisy” charts ….and still take some benefits :)

 

P.S. Pagination poll has been closed.  Overwhelming majority is fine with no pagination (we don’t really have 400-500 comments monsters yet and it is not really our goal to have it – we welcome everyone to participate, but not blackmailing to do so)

 

Unhappy Day on the Long Side

I guess if you were long it could have been worse, like this expensive two car pile up. No reason to quibble over the 3 cent short change on the gap fill today for SPY, and they did manage to hold it over horizontal support by EOD, so we'll play the game again tomorrow. IWM on the other hand, my Sunday indicator, tells another story as you'll see in the chart. I know I'm a broken record, but this really has been a concerted effort by all of you, so let's get some rest and get ready for more tomorrow. ~Keirsten

Remember: GDP and Unemployment Numbers before the bell, plus a POMO...and I'll edit this later with earnings tickers...

Fait Accompli?

There is nothing like laying out a plan, watching and waiting for solid signals and planning your trades, and I know many of us have been doing all of this and more for not just days, but weeks on end, so pat yourselves on the back for a job well done, and putting some faith and trust into your TA work. From keeping an eye on gold, oil, the trannies... you name it, it takes a lot of diligence and hard work to make what outsiders think is "easy" money. It's anything but easy money, as we all know. Moving on.. here is my current look at SPY (forgive me, but my feed is not letting me generate a chart on SPX currently,) and what I'm tracking in the short term. My only advice is: don't jump the gun if you're trying to scalp long here, as the game seems to have changed considerably, and there is more heavyweight economic data coming out tomorrow morning, as well as what is supposed to be the last POMO auction as far as I know. Good luck and good trading!!! ~Keirsten

Added: Consider the psyche of those who are still long as you trade as well- and let volume be a good guide going forward. Yes, there will be bounces, but those who are caught long are most likely in fear mode if this continues, and we can use that to our advantage. ;-) How do I know this? Because I've been on that side more times than I'd like to count.

Channel Grandeur

The answer I’d like to know – how is it humanly possible to stay within this channel for over a year now?  Computers are not smart enough to do trading within bent lines???

 

 

10/28/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1052	1064.75
SPX	1056.09	1067.95
/NQ	1696.50	1734.50
NDX	1700.52	1737.06

 

Transports, Commercial Real Estate and more Stupidity

Enough said, now to the charts

 

Here is my take on Transportation ETF (IYT)

As you see on the daily chart w3 has printed (note – at the same time it did not overshot wC of sequence down which raises the question about validity of developing wave sequence up ) and w4 satisfied minimum requirements.  Unless high of w3 will be exceeded – we have bearish case on hands and I intend to trade accordingly – short the rips.

 

Next one up is Commercial Real Estate (IYR)

 

Everything that being said about (IYT) can be applied to (IYR) PLUS its bearishness is reinforced by new wave sequence down starting to develop – w1 has satisfied minimum requirements already.

 

Here is a bonus – up to the minute chart of /NQ (NASDAQ100 Futures) – unless 1714 low will be violated in overnight session I expect bounce tomorrow.

 

 

Here something else – when you post comments with links to your blogs, PLEASE, make sure that you contributed to discussion FIRST and people would not treat you like a spammer.  (Yes, I am not the nicest person on Earth, but I was told to be quite fair – I would hate to ban someone who otherwise might have benefited to the cause)

 

And here is my favorite part

 

Tuesday Wrap Up

The Transportation Index continued to fall today, and you'll see in the chart below, it's inching closer to support, but this is not a sign of confidence IMO that green shoots are growing much. IWM also closed below trendline support from the March low, if only a little, so the M pattern there continues to be a factor. In after-hours, Visa is not looking too well, and neither is the education sector, so you might find some good trades for tomorrow and beyond.

Good trading today, and good machine-gun style calls out to each other while trading. Who could ask for more?? I don't know about the rest of you, but my own trading has substantially found its way back to where it should be lately, and I have to attribute that to this group of fine traders, so thank you all! ~Keirsten


Zig Zag's Fractal Chart on $TRANS

Notable earnings tomorrow include: pre-market: BWA, COP, HES, WLP. COP could give us a hint of things to come with XOM reporting Thursday AM before the bell. Post-market includes: AKAM, AVB, CBG, CERN, ESRX, FLS, ORLY. Again, the REITS will come into play for those trading IYR/SRS.

Economic Calendar:
Pre-market: Durable Goods, 10:00- New Home Sales, 10:30- Petroleum Status

Also be aware that on Thursday before the bell at 8:30 AM, they'll announce both GDP and Jobless Claims. Good trading!

 

DDT here 8:45PM EDT

Just a few charts with lame notes on today’s levels/logic/action

 

 

 

Tuesday Limbo

Unless you're trading momentum stocks today, we seem to be stuck on stupid for now, as we once again bounced off of lower support/pivots but we're either basing to go up or down, take your pick. IBM's buyback announcement, as well as strength in XOM, CVX, COP seem to keep the Dow from falling into the abyss.. so far. I did note that IWM managed to keep the original channel line today, but I'm moving the furniture around on the SPY chart.

Thanks to all for charts, counts and the kitchen sink while we try to extract our profits from the beast. ~Keirsten

P.S. For the Beetlejuice reference from our faithful leader, you might as well have this song stuck in your head like I do now too. :-)

Daily Range Projections Oct27th

10/27/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1050	1077.50
SPX	1052.80	1079.53
/NQ	1723.25	1762.25
NDX	1724.07	1762.68

 

 

 

(SPY) Video Update

Road Trip

Today it was the bull's turn to take a stroll down memory lane to the downside. Although volume started out light, there's nothing to complain about on the selling volume today at all, and although we've become accustomed to seeing a bounce after days like this, we'll cross that road when we come to it. We'll do our homework tonight and prep for another day tomorrow...

I know a lot of traders in here were really on their game today- congrats to all of you, whether you were trading AMZN long or XOM short, well done!!! I think some of us need neck braces from trading in and out! :-) Have a good evening, and enjoy a job well done! ~Keirsten

P.S. Tomorrow is a busy day on the economic front: Before the bell: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, Red Book and S&P Case-Shiller. At 10:00 AM is Consumer Confidence, and later at 4:00 PM, Turbo Timmy will speak.

Notable earnings pre-market include: JCI, SCHN, X, VLO, WYNN, and post session include: APOL, BXP, CEPH, MEE and NSC

Few intraday Charts – bounce coming

Thirsting for Information

Spending some time away from computers and charts for a day and a half had me thinking a lot about how we, as traders, often over-complicate things to the point we are left motionless to take a trade, or even worse... act on the fear of not being in a trade. How do I know this? Because I'm guilty of it all the time. Sometimes I not only want fairly good risk/reward on my side, I want the perfect trade- and the odds of that happening trade after trade are pretty slim.

This picture of a glass of water is a good example: if I decide to think too much about it, I might decide it's not really a glass of water, but a glass of Stoli, bleach, or 7-up that's gone flat. But on first glance, it's just a glass of water on the first pass with my eyes. My protective instincts will cause me to explore it by taste or scent before I indulge in it, but if I really wanted to get crazy, I might also want to know the mineral content of the water, and about a thousand other things. Meanwhile, I'm thirsty! So why not just drink the darned glass of water and move on? It's the same way with trading sometimes: the human mind tends to believe that if something is too simple, it cannot work. So... we complicate things, and possibly find ourselves unable to get with the rhythym of our own trading set-ups. Just food (or water) for thought going into this week of trading.

In keeping with my own effort to KISS the trading this week, I'm sharing my chart on IWM. Unlike the SPX/INDU/COMPQ, it failed to not only make a new high, it failed to even breach the old highs. That has my attention, as these are riskier based stocks, so amongst all of the other risk indicators out there, this one is pretty darned basic, but surely worth a good watch during the week. It also has some very nice patterns shaping up here, and maybe this will be the thing to foretell where we're going. I'm including both the daily and intra-day chart for your amusement. ;-) I have another data point I'll try to share later on, but still waiting to make sure there are no copyright infringements in that effort. If there is, I'll share a link to data I think you might like to keep an eye on. Also, the video below is a different sort of view of the state of things, and while I don't agree that we're in "post" crisis mode, it's a not so doom and gloom view of the belt tightening behavior of the US consumer, that really isn't a bad thing afterall. I hope all of you TTWinners had a great weekend, and I can't wait to dig in with you all and trade this tape for the next five days! ~Keirsten

IWM: Daily



IWM- Current Intra-day


$TRAN: I'm showing the data from StockCharts that it did close below the TL, but on my own charting platform, it's still a bit above it, but closed EOD below the 50 EMA

About a month ago I found a good chart showing Long-term money flow, so decided to investigate what's been happening in that arena since then, so here's my graph with data from ICI. Follow the money.

John Gerzema: The post-crisis consumer

 

 

 

DDT here – just few charts, few coughs, few complains – same old stuff.

Don’t know about you, but I’ll do my best to bring market down next week – 920 would be really sweet as compensation for suffering.

 

 

 

Monday Oct 26th 8AM ETD

 

Daily Range Projections

10/26/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1062.25	1086
SPX	1067.38	1087.70
/NQ	1733.75	1756.50
NDX	1737.30	1765.5

Overnight action, if any, was all about hammering the dollar (within reasonable limits) – let see what first hours will bring to the table.  I am leaning to the dark side, but doubt that it will be an easy trade.