Tuesday, April 06, 2010

"Logic is an enemy and truth is a menace"

TheObsoleteMan.JPG"You walk into this room at your own risk, because it leads to the future; not a future that will be, but one that might be. This is not a new world: It is simply an extension of what began in the old one. It has patterned itself after every dictator who has ever planted the ripping imprint of a boot on the pages of history since the beginning of time. It has refinements, technological advances, and a more sophisticated approach to the destruction of human freedom. But like every one of the super states that preceded it, it has one iron rule: Logic is an enemy, and truth is a menace. This is Mr. Romney Wordsworth, in his last forty-eight hours on Earth. He's a citizen of the State, but will soon have to be eliminated, because he's built out of flesh and because he has a mind. Mr. Romney Wordsworth, who will draw his last breaths in the Twilight Zone."

It is a shame to have to add anything after quoting one of the best of Twilight Zone, so I'll be brief – set stops on your long positions, all of them, trailing stops, fixed stops, trendline break stops – you can even set senti-mental stops (if you are capable of honoring those) – if you were on the long side – you have made a great deal of profits – KEEP IT. Do not say to yourself – economy REALLY has gotten better – we all know that it has been in the shitter for over 10 years now and existed only because of the endless GuberMint monetary injections in the number of ways.

It will not stop, they have NO WAY of stopping it, but as far as I am concerned – stock market right now is in the no man's land and death of meaningless butterfly ("meaningless" under normal conditions) might cause event you will have no time or guts to react to.  If it will NOT happen – your long positions will be intact, but if it will – you did what you had to do to protect your chips – you set the limit. 

Trade well




gatopeich Today 04:40 AM

I am busy today so I am giving it a fast shot now:



Shape odds wise, same scenario as yesterday (23-23 => ?). That means:
* Single most likely shape at 26% is another 23. That would mean dipping under 1183 just to bounce back and close 1189~1192.
* On the bearish side there is a combined 51% odds of visiting 1173,5, a requirement for three likely shapes (31, 32, 33). After that dip, a bounce back to 1179 would be likely (32, 33).
Targets estimated assuming an opening at 1185,7 (Commerzbank current guess), if opening is very different, targets change but shape odds not (23 will still be 26%, etc).
Good luck!



Economic News for today:

MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET


EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET


William Dudley Speaks
12:15 PM ET

10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET


Ben Bernanke Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Tom Hoenig Speaks
2:00 PM ET

Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET


Checking offerings of our fine sponsors – all day and priceless!

blog comments OCCASIONALLY powered by Disqus