Wednesday, January 06, 2010

The Contrarian

"But being a contrarian requires a superior sense of what is real, and what is out of synch with reality. In general few amateurs possess this level of judgment and perspective, and end up just looking silly and eccentric after a few correct calls, taking the opposite position because it is the opposite, proclaiming night to be day, and the moon to be cheese." -

Arthur Cutten

Here we are on day three of the new trading year and still hovering in the upper range. While we are all anticipating something to happen "any day now," to rush in and become the first contrarian is not always the smartest move, nor the most profitable, and sitting on one's hands can actually be pro-active. I do have one chart on gold futures to share, but beyond that we've seen where the VIX is, where the SPX is and the rest of the usual suspects.... so we wait. I think some are anticipating the big jobs number on Friday, but as recent as December a "good" jobs number saw the SPX move down for several days post announcement, so there is no way to predict whether or not the number will move the market up or down... we'll get there when we get there.

Also, please feel free to utilize the Google Document section at the bottom of each thread to share your trade ideas, and if you need help setting up your document just raise a hand for help. I stumbled around with it a little bit last night and look forward to updating it and having it handy to review performance on various pick methods/criteria as time goes by. It also gives us a chance to discuss and help each other with potential trade pitfalls, so don’t be shy.

On the economic calendar tomorrow before the bell will be: Chain Store Sales, Monster Employment Index, Job Claims and the 30 Y Bond announcement. The Natural Gas report will be at 10:30, followed at 11:00 with 3 and6 mo. and 1, 3 and 10 Yr announcements. James Bulltard will also be speaking. Good trading to you going into the afternoon session, and remember it's okay and prudent at times to not do a single thing at all and preserve capital.


Bored on the Trading Floor- and you think we’re nuts around here?!!

You could be trading against this guy!

blog comments OCCASIONALLY powered by Disqus