Thursday, August 28, 2008

"Silver Bullet" A.K.A. (UNG)

[image from]

Sometimes I do feel like werewolf, I run almost naked in the woods behind my house and I eat animals when hungry and (UNG) is, most likely, my "silver bullet".
Avoiding temptation to revenge trade, still holding seriously bleeding UNG Oct long calls position (and, yes, some Sep calls as well - what's left of it), luckily not initially big (I know my risk tolerance ...sometimes), but nonetheless watching it all the time - as I mentioned before, we might have sustainable rally in energy sometimes mid September ( not like the quick pop after Aug12th).
Today, after 10:35 report I just could not fight it and initiated yet another UNG long calls position at the time when price was under $36 (cost $1.10- Sep40 calls) - most likely could not find open fire for my money at that time - I will sell at any price in exactly one week.
Why? Volume - 2.5x of highest volume. Price - did not break prior lowest low. Season - getting closer to seasonable favorable period. Size of position - mediocre.
First circle - June 2007 top, second - September 2007 recovery, third - June 2008 top, forth (not there yet) - will seasonal trends repeat this year? So far this year was anything, but "repeatable" if you read nonsenses like Traders Almanac - you most likely lost some money on attempts to "mirror" past events.

I closed most of "metals basket" long calls today, only have some ATI left, TIE was a huge winner - be gone. Closed XLF long calls today - all of it - $20 to $21+ produced about 35% on Sep19 3 days - shall not complain, but might even start looking at the short side of the moon (XLF) closer to 21.70.
As of tonight - I am over 90% in cash and already performed my "Monthly ritual" - any profits made for the month in "actively traded account" go into "hard to reach places" - keeps me alert and saves from overtrading.