Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Sheer Idiocy

of the last two days got me totally confused.
Market is always right, market is always wrong.
Not a big fan of Conspiracy Theory which, of course, is not a theory, but reality...it feels like markets are being totally manipulated.
Or, may be, all smart traders are out of the market now and idiots rule? ( Hmm...was I trading today?)
Closed (XLF), (QQQQ), (SMH), (SPY) long calls positions this morning, average age of positions is about 3 days old, average profit on entire position (about 20% of total portfolio value) is about 30% - shall not complain...thou...when I saw totally meaningless "FED Reaction" and started to "count turkeys" - sadness came upon me - I left AT LEAST another 15% on the table...tomorrow morning it will be way more (?) of money not made, time to say to myself: "I will never catch exact top or bottom" and "Money not made is better than money lost".
Below is an email sent to "Trading to Win Mailing list subscribers" at 2:30PM

"Aug05'08 14:15 FED Statement (Trading to Win mailing list extra )
"The worst thing you can do is to do nothing"
FED demonstrated, once again, total inability to make any kind of
decision (beside waste yours and mine money for bailing out
incompetent insolvent companies), softness is weakness.
Even more - with new and "improved language skills and usage of
present perfect tense in conjunction with "Inflation" word - they just
opened flood gate for new commodities run - I hope I am wrong... "

In light of above, I still like ETFs of commodities "heavy" coutries ( inflation or not ) like (EWC) and (EWZ) - unless they going to collapse going into the end of this week - I'll be a buyer and that will confirm the theory of "next commodities run" - sorry Jeff Macke - you are one hell of a smart fellow, but I would not care less for your way of talking and your crayons. ( Yes, yes, I am a sinner - I watch those shows once in a while - they produce pretty much of the same effect on me as "Dumb and Dumber" movie - funny as hell, but save you from doing anything they do or talk about )

I might be wrong, I am not a one handed economist, but I'll be watching markets very closely tomorrow, without opening any new positions ( I am about 90% on cash now), NASDAQ100 will attempt to overcome $46 resistance ( as a matter of fact QQQQ are trading at $46.20 after hours ), but given today's totally mediocre volume I hope tomorrow morning we'll see quick pop in the morning given (CSCO)'s good ER and CC after hours, then retreat right under $46 and I'll be very happy to see consolidation into the end of this week. Unless that is going to happen, even if resistance will be taken out - the best we can expect is quick move to $47.50 area where I might even go short. ( actually I was bidding QQQQ puts this afternoon but did not get the price I wanted - tomorrow always is another day ... never lose all your chips )

P.S. Not to be misinterpreted, consolidation or not, I think that "the best we can see from QQQQs is about $47.70)