Saturday, July 11, 2009

The week it was…

Quick memory trip first – this is what I wrote on Wednesday, July 01, 2009:

Good riddance of Queen’s Taxes!
Are you ready for another leg down on the market? Are you listening to what Dollar is telling you? Two trading days? Right after 4th of July weekend? “

Now, let see how that worked out


Not too chubby, not at all – except that market participants saw my post and decided to front run me (joking), but all market did – just added to my profits on the short side…

WHY am I writing this? AM I tooting my horn? I would not care less about publicizing my good trades – I do not sell services, I do not make money on occasional Reuters publications, I have dismantled my “private site” (too much work and obligations for few extra grands per month), I am not even managing OTM (“Other people money”) right now.

The sole purpose is to explain to John Q. Public that retail trader in the bear market cannot be reactive, there are no well defined trends, there are no warnings, there are no second chances, there is no “lets do that and if it does not work – we’ll fix it later” (OH! I hated that statement in my “previous” programming life – some dimwitted idiot who caused the problem on the first place when it is time to take responsibility for his/her mistakes – the best they could do was just say: “It is not a time for a blame now, lets fix it”. Damn corrupted brain dead idiots, flawed system where people try to capitalize on low probability positive outcomes and never take time to do things “the right way” from the start. Oh well – one of the best news I had last year – and there were lots of those – a lot of big shots who were buying “AAA rated at deep discount” are foreclosing on their houses and looking for a job now and finally they hear the truth from their “other half”: “YOU are an IDIOT!” No – I am not talking about Kneale – he is just a mediocre puppet)

Okey-dokey… lets answer one sarcastic email I received after I announced my “long term vacation” from blogging. Here is a short version of that email:

“You are acting like prima donna, trying to attract attention to your useless market calls etc etc etc”.

The answer would be (thou I don’t really HAVE to reply to someone who is still on my mailing list while badmouthing me …why is that person still on the mailing list?) – I may decide to do whatever I feel like I want to do right now – it is not a job, I, as oppose to “cubicle slaves” am REALLY free to do whatever I want to do whenever I want to do that.

Now – why I cut my “blogging vacation” short? Because of the many “other kind” of emails:

“Over the years I've met some interesting investors and you rank with the best. I like your renegade style and will never forget your call, just about to the day, that the oil bubble would burst almost a year ago today. Damn, I wish I shorted it .

I wish you good luck and want to thank you for your hard work.


[“Bill” is a patient reader and generous donor since February 2008]

“I hope everything will be well with you and your family, I am going to miss your musings a lot, you are one of the very few traders I still follow who was able to stay the course no matter what media and other “legendary” traders were mumbling. I endlessly appreciate your efforts and I learned A LOT from you, being realistic [skeptical] among many other things, not even speaking of your not so traditional charting techniques


[“Evelyn” is a patient reader and generous donor since March 2007]

(I’ve never managed to personally thank those people who understand amount of hard work and dedication it takes to try to predict the market – I am using this opportunity and would like to say “THANK YOU, thank you very much” without Elvis’ intonations :) DavidDT )

THAT is one of the reasons WHY I started blogging on the first place – trading is THE MOST DIFFICULT occupation and I thought I had something to offer that might be helpful to fellow traders.

Alright – now back to business.

I will be going over a lot of charts this weekend, I have a feeling that next week will be anything but dull and I’d love to use that trading opportunity before market descent into REAL doldrums of the summer.

I will post some thoughts on the dollar, commodities and general market over the weekend.

There was a change made to mailing lists setup – posts will NOT be mailed out, sorry, you will have read it at one of my blogs [I WILL send notification when new post is up]