Friday, July 24, 2009

I screwed up

2009-07-24_2251  Somewhere along the lines of my posts, in my charts, videos, Disqus comments – The Market Truth was lost.

Vanity is NOT my favorite sin, but desire to be correct is and somehow the only truth that matters – Mr Mightily Market’s truth – that truth was amiss.

I have never listened to “great” earnings releases at the tops – somehow I was trying to pinpoint inaccuracy and lies and nonsense in ERs and CCs at the current 900 levels.

Thanks God I was deaf to all the bearish arguments at 666 SPX or I would have missed one of the best trades of this year.

"I really can't tell you why all the bearish arguments are wrong..."

Why did that happen?  I became biased, somehow all the actions of all the King’s men got under my skin, causing me to be constantly frustrated by corruptive grotesqueness of unfit rulers of American Universe who put all that excess debt through corporations into throats of greedy people and then made jobless or getting by sheeple pay back to corporations without any chance to default by stealing taxpayers money and raising taxes as I type – the very same money these poor suckers need now to survive (I am not touching the subject that deadbeats had no reason to drive home fantasy equity loans funded BMW’s on the first place)

A lot of perma bears are whining and blaming FED, treasury or their abusive Papa – I have none to blame, but myself … and it is not really a blame – just admittance of making mistake and missing great long trade (as oppose to “losing lots of money on unjustified short trade” – yup, lots of money down the drain, you betcha). You can say “in the hindsight”, but confirmed W2 wave was sitting right there on my charts from July 10th 2009 and the main reason I did not accept 23% retracement as W2’s low – beside extreme unusualness of such shallow retracement as 23% – was my bias and I kept expecting at least 38%=840 and totally dismissed 875 target which I pronounced “less likely” in this post.

[not trying to find excuses, but for W2 corrective wave retracement of 62% IS the most likely or “preferred” scenario, but market is there to surprise – surprised I was.  There is yet another reason, so silly that I am ashamed to disclose it, well … I was looking at Cubes A.K.A. QQQQ as a proxy for Nasdaq Composite without even realizing what the hell I was looking at – and NASDAQ100, due to heavy technology/biotech exposure has totally different wave structure and these discrepancies confused me even more…oy vey :( ]


I will be revising a lot of my charts over the weekend,  cleaning and unifying,  for now I can say that my original target of 1120 (with pullback or consolidation around 990-1020 – pretty close now and most likely will start after, possibly, slightly higher close on Monday) - which was lost behind growing pile of charts stands, and this bull market’s top (within much bigger and longer secular bear market)  will, most likely, be at 1265 area.

I paid my price for being biased – yet another very expensive lesson.


P.S. 7 words you cannot say on TV .. on this blog
1. H&S
2. C&H
3. double top/bottom
4. perma bull
5. perma bear
6. capitulation