Another short post

Typical last day for bad month, bad quoter, bad first half of the 2008.
Have completed my long calls positions for (XLF), (XHB), (QQQQ), some (LEH), some (JASO), long puts (OIH) and bought lots of (PPH) for IRA account ( I believe neglected/abused pharma is in the beginning of a major turn).
By the end of today, naturally, I was swearing to myself to never trade again, get some lame, but "normal" job and be like everybody - "a slave".
Always happens when you have a plan and stick with a plan, at least it was not bad enough to start writing an updated will :-)

Still, feels a little better after market close to see that most of beaten down to oblivion financials stocks are bidding up aftermaket, obviously on this news:

"Lehman Bros Started At Overweight By Morgan Stanley >LEH

Last update: 6/30/2008 5:15:14 PM

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

June 30, 2008 17:15 ET (21:15 GMT)"

Thanks MS - nice timing.
( Don't forget - MS said: " Oil will be $150 by July 4th" - read: "get the hell out before 4th of July")

Rally is coming

Well, bear run predicted in this post ( as of May 20th) "This time it's different" - NOT materialized in a timely manner and a lot of "Market Gurus" are been caught "by surprise" ...whatever.
But like all "good things" ( in term of been properly positioned for selloff ) it is about to come to an end and it looks like rally I expected by the second week of July might just come a little sooner. ( Not like tomorrow, but it's better be ready )
It is late at night now, so I just throw in few long ideas:
(TRAK), (CHB), (BOOM) ?, (IIG), (CECE), (CHINA), CORS), (GAIA), (WCI), (XING), (BZH), (ELON), (MCHX), (LEH) - a lot of homebuilders and you pick financials yourselves ( at least UYG ).

Although for NASDAQ100 "rally might be just a "kiss resistance goodbye" - I think this rally will be mostly about homebuilders and financials.

P.S. Really enjoyed watching long desperate faces of CNBC's ... well, you name them - I am in a good mood now

P.P.S. Don't forget that there is always a bear market somewhere and this time it is in "Oil and Gas Extraction" stocks. ( Post as of June 24th )

"Laughter can add +8 years to your life"

"Laughter can add +8 years to your life - trust you life savings to AIG"
In what deceptive, low life, cynical, crooked, shameless ...(fill the dots) mind any advertisement similar to that could be born?

Let me rephrase it: "We blew off all the money we squeezed on premiums and bubbles, now we ( AIG) need to survive and we need more of your hard to earn money to bail us out or at least help us to stay afloat"

Would you trust your money to THAT company?



Or would you take investment/trading advise from someone who works for THAT company?



Whatever happened to common sense...

House Passes Energy Speculation Bill

"The House passed a bill requiring CFTC to curb speculation in energy markets"?
None has any clue as of yet what it is and when it is and why it is and if "they" really that moronic and....
Will it be "forced delivery" to pensions funds?
Will it be "curbed liquidation only mode"?
Is it margin change?

Who knows...one thing for certain - we might be up for quite volatile week ahead...what else is new...

Now we all can sleep well - great American Politicians did their job and washed their hands, from now on they cannot be blamed for "$12 gas at the gas pump"

I am too old for that nonsense...

"Doorman Syndrome" #N

Why is it "#N"? Look here "Doorman Syndrome"

Today when I stopped at the full service gas station unwilling to be subjected by the gas sticker shock while fueling myself and sadly watching dollars going nuts and away and while middle aged all American man was scratching my car with nozzle falling from shaking tired hands I had that conversation with "pump boy":

PB: Hope I will not be doing that sh... work for much longer, few weeks ago I've borrowed all the money from all my friends and relatives I could and invested in OIL, RAILROADS, COAL... all that WIN/WIN hot commodities stuff - I heard on CNBC that with that new 30 years Bull Market in commodities I'll be all set for life very soon.

Me: Good luck buddy, just cut your losses short and fast - at least your friends and family might get some money back...

Moral of this story is the same old boring truth - when everyone knows the "secret" there is none left to be a buyer - short it up.

( Sorry house wives who imagined themselves to be new "real estate magnates" )

"You have to Come Yesterday"

Everything looked so good yesterday, at least YOU wanted it to...if you stubborn and and hopelessly romantic and ignored that post on the morning of June 25th
So far we have an oversold bounce

Anyhow, great day, sold most of V puts and could not resist temptation to sell to close (GLD) calls ( bought in expectation of powerless FOMC actions) - over 30% move in Sep2008 calls in one day - I'll take it, even in spite of the fact that is looks like it broke out of symmetrical triangle with possible target of about $95 and volume was good - just don't feel good holding any big position in anything going into holiday week.


Today on market close $TICK was well under-1000, $TICK/Q was -1100 ( I think), $TRIN, $TRIN/Q slightly above 2 - that lead me to believe that tomorrow morning we'll see at least a bounce - where I will dump 3/4 of QQQQ July calls I accumulated close to the end of the day today.

At least I cannot say any longer "Congratu...Lation - "we"'ve done NOTHING" as at the time of today's post DOW broke any reasonable support, any elastic trendline, any line on the sand you want to believe in - looks like very soon Americans will be applying for housekeeping positions in Sweden - long overdue unless PEOPLE will WAKE UP and TELL Government for corporations and by corporations:
"It is NOT about what WE can do for our country - it is what our Country can do for US after ignoring People's needs for over 30 years now - ENOUGH WITH BULLSHIT PROPAGANDA - it DOES NOT pay the bills"

P.S. Looks like my expectations of QQQQ at 46 by the end of June played out quite well. ( It is somewhere in comments part)

BernankeNess

Can you see his lips moving? He is not a lawyer - so he is not lying, so what is he saying? Or is he praying? I have no clue either...
I used to work with the guy, who quite ironically looked exactly like Uncle Benny, except for his name was Solomon. That was the smartest guy I ever knew, the problem was that by the time he was finished with thinking/explaining/arguing process I was done with the task on hands - and ... it was not any worse than his plan...
STOP TALKING START DOING

So far we have oversold bounce

carried over from yesterday's close - $TICK was -600+, $TICK/Q was -1000.
Closed some short oil related and few long positions.
(OIH) puts performed admirably, knock on wood...
Taking the rest of the day off, most likely will be going long on (QQQQ) during Thursday's selloff.
Count "the waves" after today's 2:15 lips service - the THIRD one is the right one.

CongratuFa...Lation - "we"'ve done NOTHING

That is what considered to be a "Great Economic Power"?
Are those people delusional? Or "they" believe that citizens of this once great country are total degenerates? And patience is forever?
After short lived summer rally we will see (DIA) at 110 before it ever be back at 140. Not even referring to widely known by anyone other than FED/Government phenomenon called "inflation"...
Nothing can be said other than "We Fu...d" Enough said...

Wildcatters and other schizophrenic buy-buy-buy's

Same old song - new tune now...
Is not it funny how the very same week Jimmy Cramer recommends to buy multiple oil/gas exploration companies the very same companies, plus most of slightly higher "respected" like (APA) or (CHK), those companies post DavidDT's SELL-SELL-SELL signal, the very first sell signal after over 3 months of insanely sharp rise?

My regular readers know that I am not afraid to look like a fool and contradict "Known Kings" - better look like a fool than...

In case if you are too lazy to come up with the list - here it is:
BZP MCF PBR SNG DNR CLR CEO RRC ARD CRZO KWK NTG CHQ SWN OXY SGY NBL UPL APA FST SNP APC EOG ECA ATLS BBG XTO ME CHK COG WLL BDE HK DVN BEXP PVA MMR EAC RGNC NFX BRY PTR MWE TXCO CPE ATN STR EVEP GPOR CXG CRK XEC CFW WTI ABP TOT XTXI EPD TGA HNR PGH SFY CMZ E KAZ PXD SM PXP XCO ROSE STO TLM NXY PQ CEP VQ ERF ATPG GSX EGY NGAS DPTR END AEZ GMXR PLLL QRCP FXEN LINE EPL TMR EPEX GDP TMY TRGL KOG BDCO ENT

Summer Rally is coming to town?

View 45street's map

Taken in a place with no name (See more photos or videos here)

"You'd better watch out
You'd better not cry
You'd better not pout
I'm telling you why"

That is just a gut feel as of now, I keep a close eye on daily market action, don't see anything, but doom and gloom all over the places ( not counting ridiculous oil/commodities related bubble )...I'd say too much doom and gloom.

It is just a hitch, but I think that within from few days to few weeks, closer to mid July we will see sustainable rally attempt led by financial and homebuilders.
To be continued...
Image from Wikipedia

Weekly homework - how you do it?

It is probably not a good subject for blog post, but I thought fresh ideas might be helpful.

Here is mine - I uploaded pdf file ( For 62308.pdf ) to this location ( I think you need Google ID in order to get it) - it is fairly big - 2Mb, with lots of charts, it is not quite finished yet, but you'll get an idea.

http://groups.google.com/group/trading-to-win/files

"You are out of your mind!" J.B.

Larry Kudlow: "Happen to be right on the money, right on economy, right on prosperity, right on the business, right, right, right, drill, drill, drill..."
Is he speaking about his "orientation"? Right wing? Going in circles for years? Goldilocks 500 times?
I understand, you are going "right", but do you EVER HAPPENED TO "BE CORRECT"?

Let Joe Battipaglia address that:
"So stock market is going to go up in front of rising rates, falling financial, slowing corporate spendings, lay offs, inflation?
YOU ARE OUT OF YOUR MIND"

I am not saying that J.B. is the one to listen to for market direction, just admire that he speaks his mind.

OK...DIA, SPY, QQQQ, IWM are all back to sell into the rallies ( I, personally, staying away from DIA/SPY in any direction due to high financial weighting), watching for good short entry on UNG and will go long USO puts by Friday close.

Hold it, just HOLD IT.....

One of the many essential qualities any trader has to acquire in order to survive in the market is to change with the market, not to be overly opinionated, not, in essence attempt to say: "I am right, Market is wrong".
Coincidentally that was ( and in a lot of cases still is ) one of the most difficult for me to learn - I am REALLY stubborn.

As of now I am "short NASDAQ into the rallies" kind of a guy, it worked for few weeks now, was on target with "this week up" and "that week is down" predictions. Has it changed?
Was going through the charts, here are the pieces of the puzzle. ( with corresponding ETFs )

Agricultural Commodities is a SELL now ( DBA )
Commodities is a SELL soon (DBC )
Natural gas is a SELL now ( UNG ) was expecting it for few days now.
Crude Oil, soon to be a SELL, but first I think, if no surprises over weekend we might see huge spike ( USO )
Financial is a current BUY ( cashed in on a move on UYG calls from 24.50 to almost 26 ), expected it to be short lived, but, and this is new - it just might develop into something bigger than just an attempt to establish double bottom.

Next, something that surprised me
DIA looks like a buy, SPY looks like a buy, and QQQQ changed from strong sell to "possible sell"/"consolidation"?
How it all fits together?
I think it fits nicely:
If (DBA),(DBC), (UNG),(USO) will let the air out - money will flow somewhere, could be financial? ( substantial part of DIA/SPY )
QQQQ components have had a very nice run, I doubt it will attract a lot of new/rotating money, that is why QQQQ is a "possible sell/consolidation" ( it was "strong sell" just a week ago)

Crazy market, I don't know why they call it "Traders' Market", I think it is a "Widows Maker" market.
P.S. Not to overlook strengthening Dollar
DavidDT
P.P.S. Just stumbled upon my older post
Cramer, (YUM) and blind faith ( where I hinted on price been in $37 range within 3 weeks...well..it took 5 weeks, sorry folks, low as of 6/11/08 is $36.75 )
dedicated to Mr. Cramer's "dedicated segment with ingenious analysis recommendation" - (YUM) - recommended on April 29, 2008 with triple hysterical BUYBUYBUY ( blue vertical line is 4/29/08 )
Here is current chart - time to start USING BRAINS instead of Cramer?

So we got "no inflation"...according to CPeeI

I don't even want to get my hands on what "THEY" are smoking, its got to be a REALLY strong stuff - I am trying to maintain healthy lifestyle ( stress from trading is more than enough for me )
It is hard to believe that government officials are diluting themselves, it is hard to believe that they counting on been able to dilute Americans, so why don't we just ignore this BS

It is pretty much the same kind of garbage they use to compute unemployment data - I happen to be in contact with a lot of good people from my prior places of employment ( even employ then from time to time if needs arrive), they tell me that a lot of people who were shown out of the door were denied unemployment benefits on a grounds of "violation of the company policies of using Internet/EMail" - and local Labor Departments gladly play the hand of "better taxpayer". How those people count in "Initial/Continuous Claims section"?

On a positive note it plays well with my expectation of a "rally" - lets take advantage of it.

QQQQ - what is next?

That was easy, was not it? For the Bears? Well, not for me...after having one of the most worrisome days in quite a while - I loaded up QQQQ June puts on 6/2/08-6/3/08 and had really rough few days right after that, then ...few best days any short might wish for, so finally I unloaded last put ( QQQQ, AAPL, RIMM ) at good profit ( RIMM break even ) and sitting on some free cash now.
I think QQQQ will put in rally attempt to 48.50-49 area within the next few days, I will use it as opportunity to reload on QQQQ puts and this time QCOM ( everyone loves it so much, just like AAPL few days ago )
Unloaded part of UYG calls, riding free rest, will sell when XLF will be at 24-24.50

Now, this is something I like, but I cannot explain "why" even to myself, especially to myself :-)
(TIE) - something is going on, I bought some calls, will be adding soon. This is strange - I was "negative" on metals for few weeks now. Great story - WAS NOT IT?
Good night.

P.S. That stubborn DUG trade ( core position and dancing around it ) took too high of a tall on my sanity, but payback is coming, looking to go short Oil Mighty Itself and Natural Gas ( may be, most likely..definitely...will see )

P.P.S. Most likely will take some time off - never been in Brazil, what a shame :-)

Mr. Cramer insists "he is an idiot"? Part 2 ( Shippers)

Shipping is Shaping Up - Cramer's Lightning Round (5/27/08)

Quoted below as per Mr. Cramer:
""I happen to like the shipping industry, because I think it's making a very big comeback.""
I think it is very fortunate for Mr. Cramer that the only people who watch Mad Money are "new cannon meat for the stock market" who do not pay attention to "you WILL lose your money" disclaimer - Thank you very much Mr. Cramer and sorry poor suckers - I am gladly taking your money, day after day after day and I am not alone - professional traders, hedge funds ...everybody who knows that Mr. Cramer should not be taken seriously for "stock picking abilities" ... least to say. Although I have to give him credits for understanding the markets ... well - is it possible NOT to understand the markets to certain extent if you have been in that game for as long as Mr. Cramer was? Hmm.. sometimes it IS possible...
Picture speaks the thousand words - so here are few "pictures" for YA...
May 27 2008 is marked by ugly blue vertical line, pictures include "newfound Mr. Cramer's bright idea (SBLK)", (DRYS), (NAT) - which WAS recommended on May 27th show.
Baltic Index held up just 3-4 trading days after that show giving enough time to get out before collapse. (for SBLK you have to go few bars/days back to May 20th - it will be even scarier AND if per Mr.Cramer YOU should not take "Lightning Round" seriously, but you have to respect "good research" he did on stocks presented in dedicated segments - SBLK is the one )





SOMEONE, PLEASE, TURN OFF TV in the next house up the street - I am getting noxious

(XLF) or "Toxic" Financials Part 2

Today was as good as any currently bearishly positioned trader can wish for...supports broken, panic in the air, calls to Cramer "I kept buying HD for YEARS at 15% discount" ( I DO feel sorry for that person, but next time don't get tempted by 15% employee discount, don't put all your nest eggs money into your frigging company stock - have you heard of Enron and Bear Sterns, sell at profit you had over the "years" an most importantly - don't make yourself look, hmm... sound bad asking CRAMER for advise - if he could consistently make money he would not be selling his services )

Now, that been said... I loved what I saw with financial and opened 1/4 of intended long position, will be adding aver the next few WEEKS and to make myself sound even more lame - I will start building longer term Home Builders and related services over the next few weeks, no rush, but time is as good as ever ( well, better I guess )

Just a quick note on OIL - this is / might be a very good week to go short/get out of long positions. I think so because all the hopelessness and fear all over TV, public restrooms ( glad I don't have to use those too often) and due to purely technical reasons ( set of not widely known extremely tweaked by yours truly indicators), plus one more reason Stated by Morgan Stanley - I'll just repost what I posted at TradeKing's forums ( I am not affiliate of TK, so I don't care if you like them, but I AM an affiliate of Worden TeleCharts and Blocks and you at no additional expenses to you might open TC account using the link on the left side or just tell them magic number 638 ) few days ago ( read below):
"
My hat off to Morgan Stanley on OIL
posted 06/08/08 01:38 PM | Viewed 104 times

It is not often that major brokerage house tells you "when to sell"

That was what MS just did ( as oppose to GS $150-200 price target for oil in "some future" )

MS by saying "Oil will be at $150 by July 4th" clearly sends out a message for those who can figure it out - SELL OIL BEFORE JULY 4th when seasonably unfavorable time for energy stocks/resources starts. ( which IS the end of June ).

Even is hysteria will change the normal flow of the energy markets this time - at least MS sent out clear honest message - tighten up your stop by then. Bravo MS!

DavidDT "

(XLF) or "Toxic" Financials

The natural flow of events was broken on March 17th 2008.
Credibility of FED was thrown away ( there were still souls so naive who might have been confused before that day )
Hopeless believers cheered up kneeling and crying - "We saved" ("WHO" are "WE"?) and started to pour hard to get money right onto the laps of rich crooks running rotten financial institution who caused collapse on the first place. Up they went ( financial stocks) for a moment of not lasting glory and resumed torturous downdraft for another 2 months.
What had to happen back in March might just be happening now, volume, panic, babies thrown out with the water ( I might need some help here - where are the "babies" among all those "fine" financial establishments?)

Watch it now, watch it closely - now or soon might just be the time to buy into (XLF) or for greater RISK ( and may be even return ) (UYG)
I am watching, watching....holding my finger on the "buy" button

P.S.
"economy is fine - it is not sinking - it is just your sick anti American imagination...and who gives a rat's ass that your money is no good here anymore" FedSpeak
"GOLDILOCKS! GOLDILOCKS!!" 300 times per show, at a rate of five "GOLDILOCKS!" per minute, or one "GOLDILOCKS!" every 12 seconds. "- that will help - as long as there is medical insurance.

"I know crap about economy"/"Who said that nonsense? - oh...I did???" McCain

Slope of Hope and Tim Knight

"Wall Street never changes, the pocket change, the suckers change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes"
Jesse Livermore

This is as much as this post will have to do with trading - quit reading now.
For me this is the only way to respond to Tim's post - he graciously banned me from been able to post on his fine blog.
( In spite of his statement that "this is a free country" - I always say "it USED to be a free country?") ( There was a problem with Comments System - My bad )

Tim, once again, with all due respect to your good job with Prophet.com/charts, with all due respect to you for been a good businessman - Tim your approach to trading/technical analysis seems to be INFLEXIBLE, Bearishly biased at ALL times ( good or bad), not so well timed and I've seen a few traders even before all this "blogosphere era" during my many years, as I like to say, of making mistakes.
Just my humble opinion, I might be deeply mistaken indeed.

I am NOT bashing TAs - I use TAs, different ones all the time, nothing works forever, especially at the time when every startup brokerage offer "pattern finders", "trendline trading" and all the plethora of tools previously been available only to institutional traders - when "SECRET" is out - it aint secret anymore, only for suckers.

Trader is more of a mindset/experience ( even with TAs )

I did not want to offend you, I admit my language was a little more strong than occasion called for, and for that - please accept my apologies.

But the point been - market is ever changing, but you approach staying the same, same methods, same bearish bias ( I can be Bear or Bull - I am bearish now - whatever makes me money - I have to pay my living expenses trading, don't work for Nobody No More )

It always amuses me how grown up manly man can be so easily set off by simple open critique - no real trader will defend his "honor" so vigorously because of few critical comments.

Tim, forget disclaimer , people ARE looking up at you, I hope you DO feel responsible
Thank you for publicizing my lonely blog - here is the link to yours - the only time when it'll appear here - I am going to miss good folks at your place.

Peace
DavidDT A.K.A. David Dumb Trader

P.S. Tim - there was no blame on my side - we are in the different time zones on market timing :-)
Peace

P.P.S. Tim - even suggestion to release my email which is confidential per Disqus user agreement is illegal and immature, but your admirers are welcome to use the one "at the top of my site"

Look for a motive

Today was ... been positioned short, today was NOT a good day for me, not a little tiny bit. Now that been said...

Today was as weird as it gets
Volume - low...
Lagging industries - not many if any...
Dollar - indecisive
Oil - insane
Technically there was NO technical breakout...
Technically...that was as hysterical as it gets - has everyone gone mad at the same time?

May be it is just me? I was curious and watched a lot of financial TV tonight and I saw faces of seasoned traders with eyebrows raised in disbelief...none understands what was going on, "short covering" - all anybody could say...

What fueled it? Forget reports, market tanked after reports...

Why?

The only explanation I have is based on "who has a motive?", "who is benefiting?"
It has got nothing to do with "conspiracy theory", not to worry.

If dollar will strengthen - who will lose? Oil producers ( companies and countries, especially "countries")
If dollar will strengthen - who will loose? Those who is buying America right now just like Japan was buying back in 70ties

I think what we saw today was "last chance to buy cheap", to buy equities, oil, commodities - EVERYTHING on sale for not much longer.

Crazy? May be.
I'd like to see what went into Saudi's of the world accounts today. I would love to know...

Very Important - best technical analysis ever

For you educational and viewing pleasure and indisputable proof that US equities markets are doomed.

The very rare black swan formation

Another way to see upcoming crash

HomeBuilders

Going long HomeBuilders
DHI, CTX,PHM
Stop ( on market close) = today's lows + ATR
Disclosure - I am long SPF 8 days, XHB 2 days