Friday, June 13, 2008

Hold it, just HOLD IT.....

One of the many essential qualities any trader has to acquire in order to survive in the market is to change with the market, not to be overly opinionated, not, in essence attempt to say: "I am right, Market is wrong".
Coincidentally that was ( and in a lot of cases still is ) one of the most difficult for me to learn - I am REALLY stubborn.

As of now I am "short NASDAQ into the rallies" kind of a guy, it worked for few weeks now, was on target with "this week up" and "that week is down" predictions. Has it changed?
Was going through the charts, here are the pieces of the puzzle. ( with corresponding ETFs )

Agricultural Commodities is a SELL now ( DBA )
Commodities is a SELL soon (DBC )
Natural gas is a SELL now ( UNG ) was expecting it for few days now.
Crude Oil, soon to be a SELL, but first I think, if no surprises over weekend we might see huge spike ( USO )
Financial is a current BUY ( cashed in on a move on UYG calls from 24.50 to almost 26 ), expected it to be short lived, but, and this is new - it just might develop into something bigger than just an attempt to establish double bottom.

Next, something that surprised me
DIA looks like a buy, SPY looks like a buy, and QQQQ changed from strong sell to "possible sell"/"consolidation"?
How it all fits together?
I think it fits nicely:
If (DBA),(DBC), (UNG),(USO) will let the air out - money will flow somewhere, could be financial? ( substantial part of DIA/SPY )
QQQQ components have had a very nice run, I doubt it will attract a lot of new/rotating money, that is why QQQQ is a "possible sell/consolidation" ( it was "strong sell" just a week ago)

Crazy market, I don't know why they call it "Traders' Market", I think it is a "Widows Maker" market.
P.S. Not to overlook strengthening Dollar
P.P.S. Just stumbled upon my older post
Cramer, (YUM) and blind faith ( where I hinted on price been in $37 range within 3 took 5 weeks, sorry folks, low as of 6/11/08 is $36.75 )
dedicated to Mr. Cramer's "dedicated segment with ingenious analysis recommendation" - (YUM) - recommended on April 29, 2008 with triple hysterical BUYBUYBUY ( blue vertical line is 4/29/08 )
Here is current chart - time to start USING BRAINS instead of Cramer?