(CRS) or "Smarter than a box of parrots"? (A.K.A. Fast Money)

Fast Money's "Parrot number 3": "Oh-ho, it is all bad out there for metals manufacturers, look at (STLD), it is only getting worse, oy vey..."

(CRS) - what they do:

Carpenter Technology Corporation (Carpenter) is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals. The Company operates in two business segments: Advanced Metals Operations (AMO) and Premium Alloys Operations (PAO).

 

 

Trade PLAN: Within next 2-3 days I would expect (CRS) to move slightly higher, most likely to $16 area, after that it will retreat to $14.50 area were I will start buying it for a longer term trade - many months in duration and I intend to hold it for as long...for as long as trade will continue to make sense.

When trade does not make sense for me anymore? Fair question - here is the answer:

Trade does not make sense when any of these is true:

a.  It loses money - more then 5-10%

b. When it is not losing money, but not making it either (that includes "underperforming")

c. generate signal opposite to the one trade was based on

d. will close on weekly chart under $12.64 (that is one of my requirements to this particular trade)

Stop by when you have nothing to do at work - if you have trading carrier in mind - we have Day Trading Chat room at Paltalk:

Chat room address is http://chat.paltalk.com/g2/paltalk/1192843448

At the current time I am evaluating alternate real time chat provider offering more options, more reliable platform, better granular control, desktop sharing etc - this upcoming version of chat will not be open to public - please, if you are interested in participation - please, reply with "expression of interest" (consider cost involved and benefits provided before just blindly replying "interested" and never "enrolling")  Test drive "free version" while it is sill open to everybody.

In case if you missed...

Market is in the rally mode 3rd day in a row...yeah, today was a consolidation - it is a healthy part of the rally.

Not much to say, I'll let comedians to do it for me (as we know in corrupt societies comedians are the only people allowed to say the TRUTH )

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220510&title=basic-cable-personality-clash

Cramer - EVERYONE WITH BRAINS has two words for you ".... you"

That's right

It is a disgrace that Cramers, banks, CEOs, FED - EVERYONE can shamelessly take advantage of people who don't know better

...and people continue to wave the flag...when enough is enough?

End of rant...

Why for the love of all mighty do they call it "FRENCH" fries?

How many children is enough - 10 or 14? No income verification for that - why not...especially when you are young, healthy and 14 years old...

What do I hate more - "stroboscopic" commercials or companies paying for that annoying crap?

Definitely end of rant now...

You feel better about market now? No more "Tea Party" talks? Of course you do - you always feel satisfied when "they" take away 95% of what you have earned and then, when "they" "give" you back 10% of what "they" took - you feel good, don't you? Could be worse, could have gotten "nottin" back...

Don't you wish sometimes you have just robbed the bank and stole some of 99.99999% of money they lost anyways? (They had to get that money from somewhere - don't you think that was YOU they got it from?). Imagine how good you'd feel now bailing them out with your money you stole from them they stole from you...wait, I lost it - I need to start over....

Sleep well, don't you worry - tomorrow might be a better day and you might even get corporate email that "there are some food leftovers in the kitchen" - rush in!

Am I still ranting???

Find "it" in pictures...

Firstly, I have to say with Cramer's intonation:

"Bear Stern is fine..."  - "What do you want from me - I am just a cable guy..."

Tonight I decided not to labor my tired pointing finger (the one I use for typing) and you will have to find what these charts have in common and why it is important. (Inspired by Keirsten from http://evilspeculator.com forum )

Now I might pretend that I have no integrity and say: "We are FINE..."

DavidDT

This time is no different, never is, just takes longer on the way up...

Louis Yamada Has 1175 Target for S&P 500 Index (Transcript)

July 11,2008 [The DAY The Oil has PEAKED ]

KEENE:  Are you in the $200 oil camp, just here in twenty seconds?

Louis  YAMADA: Well, unfortunately we do have a statistical number out there. But oil has reached all of our targets from $67 to $80 to $100, and $125, and even $140.

KEENE: Where's your target right now?

Louis YAMADA: Well I think you're probably going to get a little consolidation. But we have one little bit higher target at $150, as long as it holds above $120. But the thing has to consolidate at some point.

 

Trading To Win
June 11, 2008

[ One month before oil peaked and Yamada expressed her "confusion".

USO was $112 that week, with all time high of $118 on July 11th and /QM futures at about 148 ]

DavidDT:  Just a quick note on OIL - this is / might be a very good week to go short/get out of long positions. I think so because all the hopelessness and fear all over TV, public restrooms ( glad I don't have to use those too often) and due to purely technical reasons ( set of not widely known extremely tweaked by yours truly indicators), plus one more reason Stated by Morgan Stanley - I'll just repost what I posted at TradeKing's forums ( I am not affiliate of TK, so I don't care if you like them, but I AM an affiliate of Worden TeleCharts and Blocks and you at no additional expenses to you might open TC account using the link on the left side or just tell them magic number 638 ) few days ago ( read below):
" My hat off to Morgan Stanley on OIL
posted 06/08/08 01:38 PM | Viewed 104 times
It is not often that major brokerage house tells you "when to sell"
That was what MS just did ( as oppose to GS $150-200 price target for oil in "some future" )
MS by saying "Oil will be at $150 by July 4th" clearly sends out a message for those who can figure it out - SELL OIL BEFORE JULY 4th when seasonably unfavorable time for energy stocks/resources starts. ( which IS the end of June ).
Even if hysteria will change the normal flow of the energy markets this time - at least MS sent out clear honest message - tighten up your stop by then. Bravo MS!
DavidDT "

 

March 6th, 2009

P.S.

For your weekend enjoyment take a look where we are now and think very hard about "great investment hype" - even in the "good times"

Here is the link to the great find of Paul from http://novicebear.marketturbulence.com

Below 1966 Levels

That is exactly what I have been arguing with dimwitted confused propaganda inflicted bagholders A.K.A. “investors” ever since the beginning of times.
One would wonder - why American educational system stinks? It is easier to lie to people who don’t know better.

P.P.S.

Still double guessing if this is a bottom?.. Stay tuned...

 

"I really can't tell you why all the bearish arguments are wrong..."

"I really can't tell you why all the BULLISH arguments are wrong; all I know is that I'm shorting hysteria"

[James Rogers]

Not only stock market keeps sliding for the last 20 days (never mind convulsive jumps to the top of descending hourly channel), but out of 20 days it opened gap down 7 times...SEVEN TIMES - that IS hysteria, if it is not - I need to reassess my views on rational/irrational - that will not come easy.

So, 693 has been breached again, it most likely will be retaken back tomorrow, but it is not an utmost importance question now - while market was sliding, new buy signal was generated and is due to go in full force tomorrow. Not to mention that next week completing BUY signal. As I mentioned before - time is more important than the price, I think - it is TIME now.

It is not for the faint of heart, it is not for someone who has no discipline to cut losses when "theory" is not working...

That hourly channel has gotten REALLY boring, everyone is trading it (just like 810 "long term support" area on SPY) - it is time to "surprise" traders and take market to a different level. Last few days were not particularly good day trading days for me, I am longer term "long biased" - kept "spitting against the wind" - cost of doing business and trying to catch longer term move.

We will know soon...

P.S. XLI caught my eye today (it is not on my "daily watch")

It has completed trend change/exhaustion signal on weekly and about to post "momentum exhaustion" on weekly for the next week - along with many other ETFs...daily buy is pointing to Monday...

This was/is a brutal week - my long positions are bleeding - that is definitely too huge of a falling sword to try to catch.

In CNBC we trust - God help us

After a day like today (nothing unusual to see wild swings/drops before market turns...yes, I still on "the bottom" bandwagon) we all need some good (and not even that good of) laughter.

My "love" to CNBC dimwits is widely known (to CNBC original dimwits as well as to "guest hidden agendas speakers") - I think you might enjoy watching this video.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220252&title=cnbc-gives-financial-advice

Farewell to the King (Dollar)

Regular readers probably remember one of the posts where I used word "Farewell" - post as of April 7th 2008

Stock Market Sectors Watch or Farewell to the Sick Bull

As I stressed many-many-many times before (I am getting old - repeating words one too many times indeed) - NONE will ever be able to tell you "The Price" - price where selling will start and would not stop for a very long time and vice versa. It is "TIME" component of prediction that MATTERS. On  April's 7th 2008 (SPY) closed at 136.96, one month later (SPY) posted highest close ever - on May 19th 2008 it closed at 143.05 (intraday high was 144.30).

Yes it took over a month for prediction to materialize (one month accuracy is damn good for timing of prediction for collapse of this magnitude with drawdown on the short side of only about 6%) and as you all know now (SPY) lost over 50% since then.

I am not "tooting my horn" - I am trying to communicate time and again the very same ideas - patience is a virtue, margin is evil, time does matter , price is secondary.

Now, I am posting 3 charts - /DX FX Dollar futures, UUP Dollar Bullish ETF, and, previously posted on group's site chart of /6E - EUR FX Futures.

For lovers of fancy colorful technical indicators I included triple stochastic, triple cci, valuechart - stare at those for as long as you'd like - I don't use those...but my analysis tell me this:

Within the next few week (may be as soon as THIS week) something might happen which will send Dollar down, EUR up and market soaring. It is all lining up with trade signals )

 

 

 

And don't forget to remind me to keep building long UNG position

End of the world - LONG PORTFOLIO

Yes, I know, it is all bad, it is all hopeless, economy is in ruins, financials are insolvent, Obama is a lefty villain, investment bankers are criminals, houses worth more when they burnt to the ground, there is no demand for oil and it'll never come back, yada yada yada...

But today acting on what I thought was just an impulse I opened long /ES position @707.50- instead of "closing all at the market and hiding in the bomb shelter (as I mentioned in prior post) .

I have no idea if I will not change my bias tomorrow morning - what do you want - I am a spineless market listener - market will change and I will follow in pursuit of profits.

But here is what I did today after market close - I looked over roughly 500 charts and decided to create "example long portfolio" - it will be permanently displayed HERE for myself and readers to judge if I was correct in my expectations of bottom (even intermediate bottom). All securities listed were "bought" at today's closing prices - good enough for few months experiment...

It just might turn to be a "good day"

On February 23rd I posted finalized analysis of /ES here is the same chart I used, no modifications.

Today /es almost touched the bottom of the risk zone ( the new one, bottom at about 693) and there is an hourly buy signal in progress, which, if not disrupted, will finalize by the end of the day.

In spite of my plans to go flat, I opened /ES position at 707.50 which I intent to hold overnight. 693 is to be watched closely - if breaks - I am out

/6E EUR FX Futures possible reversal.

This is a chart sent to contributing readers at 6PM EST today

(with detailed arguments and explanations)