Sunday, May 02, 2010

Market forecast for Monday/Thursday May 3/6

Posted yesterday at Members Site

For new to Trading to Win people, I'd like to remind that I am using DeMark indicators and one of the reasons WHY is that there is NOTHING "STATIC" about them (not to mention "nothing AssCillating" AKA "lagging" as well)
The beauty of DMs for people who can interpret properly is fully dynamic fluid nature, it is in a way "guiding light" and "first warning system" more than anything else, it can always change up to the moment when signals (counts, waves etc) are finalized ("curved in stone" per se)
Depending on your trade DURATION (which is a flawed concept anyways – will you hold the losing trade 3 months only because you entered that trade "for 3 months period"?)  you have to ACTIVELLY MONITOR signals changes and not to try to come up with excuses when final result of the signal is in conflict with your "preliminary expectations".  Be flexible, life is not permanent, so is market flow.

Based on 60m chart SPY will go to 118.20 area, where it will reverse and move to 120sh(?) by Tuesday, where it turns again an will move to 117sh area by the end of the week.

On /ES extremely important level to watch in the morning is 1177.50 and, IF it breaks, next level 1171 with final max probability turn point at 1162

Again – that "strong dip" some people expecting might just happen overnight.
On a longer timeframe – unless we break new highs it is all NOT EVEN A-B-C on daily for me…yet.

Weekly SPY – don't set your hopes high for "final selloff down to oblivion" – most likely action will be limited by 116 area for now, and then SPY might go for yet another high to print final 13 Sequential Sell Countdown – similar to October 2009 action (although it might be achieved without new highs, but as you recall – 1320sh is a wave 5 target on daily)
Daily SPY chart
Monday in order to sustain downside momentum SPY must close below 118.49
Tuesday – below 119.38
Wed below 120.86
Thursday below 118.81
Now – AM I crazy?  I just kept talking about more downside this week and based on above numbers – it is a totally flat action?  Not quite – these are "extreme case scenario" – even such a "no downside" action WILL confirm "some downside momentum".  Confusing…for those who does not know how TDSetup Works.  Anyhow – that would be a "blue scenario" which I expect for now.
Bonus :)
Dollar / UUP is possibly on the last part of up move, projected target 24.60sh – good +2% still
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