Get With the Program

Happy Days are here again! That wasn't exactly the Whipsaw Wednesday we probably wanted to see, but the ending wasn't too shabby either. So... I was trying all afternoon to do a video with Jing, but the sound recorder isn't cooperating with me (yet) so once again I'll just type out some thoughts.

As was mentioned by Doc early this morning, the horse to watch was XLF, and although it made a few feeble attempts to crack 15, it just couldn't make it out of the gate. We have more banks reporting in the next few days though, so who's to know if they can yank it up there kicking and screaming. This is OPEX week, after all, and we’re just two trading days away. So with that, here are a few details you might want to be aware of for the next two trading days, and instead of putting up the same tired charts tonight, I have a handful of sector charts instead.

Thursday: PPI, Jobless Claims at 8:30. Nat Gas at 10:30, followed by Crude Inventory at 11:00. 30 Year Bond Auction at 1:00 PM.

Friday: 8:15, Bernanke speaks. CPI, Empire State Mfg. and Retail Sales at 8:30. Consumer Sentiment (would they like to call me first?) 9:55. Business Inventories at 10:00.

Good trading to you all tomorrow. Look sharp! :-)

Gave up the satin shoes today, and no cocaine eyes, but .. can you hear me knockin’ Lloyd?

Flatlined

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Video

China Chart Book (by Leisa)

I've been a lazy toad, and I've not done weekly sector reports.  I plan to resume them as some find them helpful.  I abdicated doing them because FINVIZ has them. However, I like the Stockcharts presentation better, plus compiling the sector report is a very organic way for me to interface with the market sectors.  I'll resume them next week.

To atone for my laziness, I offer this chartbook of Chinese stocks for those looking to do a little weekend homework.  It's a large file, so be patient with the download which you can here.

Don't ask questions if you are not going to like answers

Looking back at the questions I "asked" in this post as of September 9th

 

http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2010/09/questions-questions.html

 

I see that all of the question as we know now had negative answers – and there is not much surprise to it – when bias not even reinforced by DeMark-ian logic – questions will be answered in opposite to the bias way…

 

Grey zone held up (nice identified "grey zone" that was – blowing my horn!)

and "is it a bear flag?" regarding crude oil was negated as well – so much for "classical chart patterns" (no wonder I stopped using those long time ago – I just flip the coin and still do opposite to what pattern tells me to do)

 

And gold travelled to the top of the channeled fork (with only momentary slowdown on aforementioned 13 countdown sell on daily)

 

Now – today I am not asking questions, I saw my answer on CNBS…when I glanced at the screen in the airport today – some grey haired (quite long hair and title "best of something 12 years in the row") gentlemen (looked rather unwashed to be called "gentleman" but whatever) said - "stock will continue go up forever".

Great… now I can be sue that dollar/stocks ratio will screw whatever I had left after government/bankers duet liberated me of what I had before…in favor of those who had nothing (or "all" – it is only those in the middle getting f…d…translation "forked" – and you thought … WHAT???)

 

I heard that song before … in Soviet Russia… : "Those who were NOBODY became EVERYTHING" or whatever appropriate translation of "International" is….

Hate politic and politicians – they only good in the same way as lawyers…on the bottom of the ocean…

Trade well

Nothing Written in Stone

Today was great if you were short some of the tech names or the NDX, and you might have even had a good day if you were short the RUT, but there was nothing at all to write home about regarding the Dow or the S&P. While the dollar is so far finding support at the .786 retracement, it barely budged all day from that spot, and the EUR/USD is still clinging to a .618 retracement level with no visible negative divergence that I can see on the chart. The big name banks ended mixed today with GS and JPM in the green and BAC and C closing red. This was the potential sector rotation I mentioned last Friday unfolding, and I’d sure like to see them all roll over before I get too crazy on shorting. It ain't over 'til it's over, in other words. You can come up with a thousand reasons why we could crash right here, right now, but the cracks just aren't quite big enough yet for me, at least, to get too excited. I like the potential of the timing cycle here, but price remains king of the hill for now. Don’t forget AA kicks off earnings season officially tomorrow after the close, and next week those same big banks kick off their earnings. We could easily be seeing them melt-up for that occasion.. and then again, maybe not. We’ll see.

Finally, this blog is our trading home, and it’s been a rare occasion that any of the moderators have had to edit or delete comments, but please keep the political banter and length of posts to a reasonable level as the important trading comments tend to get lost, and it becomes difficult on a busy day to sift through them all to find the trading information we’re here to share. Homey doesn’t like that. Thanks for your help and cooperation on that issue. ;-)

Yep, I’m dragging the /ES Gartley out once again that I’ve been tracking for a month. We are at a 1.27 time extension of XA and AD as of today’s daily candle, fwiw, although “legally” the time on this pattern can extend to a 1.618 extension. Still, we could be close now. Regarding copper, you’ll see there’s a long tailed daily candle right at the top of a channel, but for now, the trend remains bullish.

My siren song for a turn in this tape… composed by the one and only Michel Legrand

Quick Update

Here is daily chart from

http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2010/09/dojies-dance.html

In that post I speculated that we might see AB=CD or EW A-B-C (correctional – Thank you Trader Steve), so today target hit, plus Pitchfork almost hit, PLUS TDSetup SELL daily 9 is in place …and perfected.  These were things that might make decision /targeting easier…now here is what screws everything up enormously --- RANGE of today's candle…almost 32 /ES points!  I got thrown out of my smallish long puts position first thing in the morning (took some loss due to volatility crash), but I managed to re-open part of position about 30 minutes before close…so I did lose some money, but managed not to lose as much as I could…- that is another plus :)

 

On weekly chart stochastic continues to be "overbought", but as you all know – it may stay this way until all bears will go broke (since most of them already broke – this time it might work!).  On the fork side - /ES continues to walk that line up with amazing precision…

Relax, slow down, listen for some timeless pieces (I recall when I was much younger we stormed concert hall when Argerich played in my home town and tickets were sold out…we had some other values than $$$ – although I had slightly more rubles than my former compadres back then and could afford my eclectic taste in women…musicians, models…housekeepers…anybody to be exact…WAIT – I could do it without money!  Good to be young…)

 

Welcome to October, Trick or Treat?

I'm going to get right to a few charts, and then I have to ski-daddle out of here for a bit. Hopefully I can be back to huddle with you all later on, as there are important events in the world of Forex this evening that Inna reminded us of before the bell. Before I post the charts I'd like to extend a HUGE thank you to our fellow TTWr, Optntdr, who has generously shared some great new tools for us to all play around with. You guys continue to astound me with the way you watch out for one another and are endlessly generous with whatever knowledge and tricks you have up your sleeves. Good on you all! :-)  And don’t forget- we have back-to-back POMOs this week, so whether or not you’ll be receiving a trick or a treat will depend on how nimble you can trade this thing.  G/L to us all, we’re going to need it.  HA! (what else is new?)  Oh!  One more thing- don’t forget that OPEX is coming up next week.  Weren’t we just dealing with this yesterday?

Zig’s T Chart on DAX

 

 

Just to get you in the mood….mwahahaha!

Dojies Dance

 

Are we observing so familiar by prior topping formation series of dojies glued to the same level day after day? Is FujiSan's AB=CD patters going to work this time? Is Andrews Pitchfork going to stop it this time?  We might ask a lot of questions and make best guesses and place the bets to the best of our abilities.  Quarter is over, economy is in the dumpster, college graduates have no jobs, no income and $200,000 loans – is that the next one WE are going to repay?  I am holding my long puts – in a way I am glad I am not involved as much as before in intraday business – my "other initiatives" starting to come to life little by little – I guess I am growing up and stopping to put all eggs (efforts/money) in one basket.

Booooring….

Not much to report, nothing has changed today, stochastic sell weekly still there, except for bleeding theta nothing changed.  I will hold my long puts position for few more days, I normally go with deep in the money and at least 3-4 months put options, mostly for leverage…

 

http://trading-to-win.com/ExamplePort.aspx

 

If you recall my "example short portfolio" opened back in September 2009 – as of now, 1 year later it shows about 10% loss – nothing to write home about for bulls or bears…and just few weeks ago it was slightly in green – that was surely the year of range bound trading, if not for that May 6th flash crash I could say that I traded that year quite well…but as you know I got hit hard on that day and it took a while to get back to the market…it felt like I was lost in the ocean for a while…little insignificant human being in the middle of market tornado…

 

VIX is still in this falling wedge looking thingie, weekly stochastic buy, but it does not manifest itself immediately.

…and GS posted Countdown Buy 13 on daily (aggressive for now), still – does not look like it is poised to run

…boooring…

Stochastic Sell on Weekly blinking

Here is familiar /ES weekly chart ( featured just yesterday in video) and today has brought us some interesting change of winds…we have (so far) stochastic sell (well – week just started, but ..as of today – that is what it is)

 

 

And the next chart needs no explanations for DeMark-ians

 

 

Trade well