Saturday, September 14, 2013

Twerking with fire… or whatever that is…

Random thoughts….I do not remember any of the girls I knew when I was that age to be so dumb… oh well…




I hope those of you who observe had an easy fast and your names were scribed in the Book Of Life for the year Tishrei 5774

“For on this day He will forgive you, to purify you, that you be cleansed from all your sins before G-d.”

Leviticus 16:30



Back to business as usual…

On July 20th


I posted this chart




same chart today – I just love properly placed Andrews Pitchforks … which I just recently “cleaned” – I need to stop trying to tidy my charts – I need all that old stuff!!!



Work of beauty, of art I’d say … A La Kandinsky




Below are two charts – of 2011 and 2013 – similarities anyone?


( I know I presented my case before, but these charts use Fib Fans and Time Ratios – different toys)








As I said before – risk is limited (should I have not traded against myself ) and reward going into the end of October might be great.



I added a lot of November IWM and others puts today … Monday is going to be another day.

Glad I foreseeing upside day today – and that upside was within the limits I thought it would be.  But… walking on the thin ice here – a little more upside and my short position will be crashed … well – damage will be sizable indeed




Firstly – should I have stuck with my original “Top 9/10th Sep” based on 10th close SPX is only 3 points up.


BUT!!! The impatient parody on the trader I am I build most of short position on Sep 6 – morning of Sep 9th and it puts me in SPX terms around 1663 (wit latest addition of mount of IWM Nov puts at is around 1670 SPX cost, but – some call it sending good money after bad – we shall see quite soon) – good 25 points against the move…not the first time in my trading life though.. I am NOT trying to find the reasons to hold onto a bad trade, I still believe market topped August 2nd and I will let the market to prove that to be wrong – till then – I am short


Next ..when I say  “top or sell” that is not necessarily “short” – it might be pointing onto period of sideway consolidation – which we had last few days.

Now – with this “agreement between US/Russia” news we might see some more upside (but pay attention to this phrase “It was not immediately clear whether Syria had signed onto the agreement, which requires Damascus to submit a full inventory of its stocks within the next week”) – namely SPX might hit 1692-94 intraday, but realistically – that (“agreement”) is what market was pricing in since Obama backed off (Is not that is what most people who are in love with the sound of their voices do when meet strong logical opponent … can someone stand up and oppose ObamaScare???? Please??? ). With that possible UP open on Monday VIX will go down and reach my desired target at TDST.


My prognosis “bottom Sep18th, next shortable top – Sep 27th” became absolutely screwed by “War on, War off” rhetoric and I am holding big short position which I expected partially close by now should my prior scenario play out… but it did not. If there is going to be some downside on Monday/Tuesday – I will hedge that position a little more with either /ESz3 long on Sunday night or SPY calls Monday/Tuesday. (But I think it will be quite stale trading till Wednesday to bleed theta out.)


Because changed short term prognosis says now: “SHORT FED MEETING” – and I am REALLY surprised by that – upsides risks of FED ANNOUNCEMENT are far greater than downside. Imagine for a second they will say: “no taper” or “smaller than expected” – if Wall St pundits believe that “taper is priced in already” – can you imagine what kind of rally will ensue???


All overall – it is a very delicate point of time in the markets now, I personally, dislike that market makes higher lows, I thought it would match that of June 24th – but if my updated scenario will play out – that is what will happen next (hit June 24 low)

And, of course, shall SPX breach prior highs – I will swallow sizable loss and take some time off as I do if I screw up (in order to not to revenge trade – which, in spite of many years of trading I still DO)


BUT … my “mechanical” system says: ‘GO SHORT FED” and I am really confused and therefore I will try to preserve my capital (by hedging)

There are multiple TDSell Setup on different indexes on daily timeframes and plus to that – VIX is pointing on possible volatility increase on Tuesday/Wednesday going into triple witching Friday.





As well as that grey area being quite congested on both /es and SPX charts







Oh.. and – oil almost done with consolidating over that messy rectangle prior congestion and … are they pricing in $122 oil as well?????




And last, but not least – everyone’s favorite parody on index – NIKKEI – looks like one ugly short to me. That descending bullish wedge’s upside target was hit, so it might just fall off the face of the channel now.



Oh… one more thing – I am watching closely “real bottom” in Gold/Silver and miners, I am really anxious to go long term long silver via PAAS (company got some bad rap recently due to its hedging moves). I have standing buy order at 10.64 and 9.90



Don’t you hate to go though too many charts as oppose me just saying:





P.S. And for all of those who keep whining: “RUT is setting new highs day after day!!!”

Morons … yeah – you, morons – RUT has been setting new highs since 2011 ended and 860ish prior high was broken, AND it was making new highs every day back in 2007 … and back in 2000 – that is WHAT SMALL CAP STOCKS DO – THEY GROW – why all of a %^&*ing sudden are you making such a big fuzz out of it NOW???



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