I would like to prognosticate a little, but before I do I need to say this:
Activities in Disqus section tell me that I am writing for myself and if so I can just take this site offline and be done with that. That another change you can believe in.
That being said:
Monday’s September 9th SPX close will be higher than today’s close, but high of the day will be lower than today’s.
Therefore perfect short trade’s entry was today right after 2PM EST, but positions can be added on Monday’s “higher close”.
If Monday’s close will NOT be higher – then Tuesday’s higher than today’s close.
We NEED higher close in order for wave B to print on daily SPX.
IF that is NOT going to happen – then it is even MORE BEARISH SCENARIO, because wave A will extend into lows on SEPTEMBER OPEX and then B will print at the end of September, may be as high as 1675 and vicious C down will rule entire October. (chart patterns lovers may calculate downside based on, in this case, materialized head and shoulders 5/22/2013-8/2/2013-9/27/2013
I went short after 2PM today with slightly more than 1/2 of intended position and will press on Monday if it plays out the way I see it.
Below is familiar (SPX) chart, I cleaned it up a little:
- Removed Fibonacci extensions that helped me to calculate Aug 2nd high as AB-CD 4/19-5/22-6/24.
- Removed Andrew’s Pitchfork
- Added “possible” trendline (yellow) which lines up nicely with today’s high and Monday’s possible closing price.
This entire counter trend move (and trend is DOWN from Aug 2nd) from 8/27 closing low was contained in 33% extension of the channel of DWave 5 from closing low on 11/15/2012 – the last attempt to stay with that wave and break of 33% line will be similar to June 18th “3 days bear market”.
Downside target by Sep OPEX is somewhere between 1595 and 1575, but as most of you know – price is secondary for me.
AFTER SEPTEMBER OPEX I EXPECT STRONG RALLY INTO THE END OF SEPTEMBER – DO NOT GET CAUGHT ON THE SHORT SIDE
Chart added few hours later on Sep6th night to pinpoint dates and approximate levels of SPX until September end’s “all in short” time
So … this “war campaign” … how is it different from any other? Change….right…