Monday, September 08, 2008

(FRE)/(FNM) action opinion?

So, what happened?
Shareholders lost everything - check.
Bondholders - will be paid by USsA government ( remember "good old" USSR? Union of Soviet Socialist Republics?)
China will get their money back - if anyone thinks US government acting out of decency, think again - we are afraid once again - China is the largest holder of US debt.
Housing will turn around? Why? Because mortgage rates might go down? Do you think Big Brother will be able to manage insolvent companies better than prior "I happen to know someone" management? You REALLY think so?
Financials? - that is a good question now.
That is the answer I REALLY want to know.
September 30th quickly approaching - you know what that date is? Do you? Well, since you would not be investing/trading if you would not know, I presume you just forgot temporary that this is when according to FAS157 all level3 assets MUST be marked to market. Do you know what percentage of total assets is in these worthless assets? My best guess is that crooks from financial companies placed at least 50-70% of "New Big Pot induced Everyone Can Buy a House Thing " into this "may be it is not going to happen" place.
Do you think market participants don't know about it?
They do know, so why (XLF) is STILL up?
Because it is becoming "the secret everyone knows about" very soon?
Is it priced into financial markets?

As a trader I am placing my bets on "It IS priced in financial markets...for the time being" - and I am buying (UYG) - 2x financial ETF around $22.80 even after it went up almost 14% from Friday's bottom. My stops are placed hard, which I don't do too often, at $22.40
So far we had "2 waves of reaction" - "UP", then "DOWN" - what the 3rd one is going to be?
This market is loco ... and since stock market is a reflection of mental state of the nation ... "WHATZUP" with the nation???
And economy is REALLY matter what cheerleaders are telling you.
Have you seen lots of people waiving flag lately? (except for politicians)