Most of the ideas played out by now or will play tomorrow ( so it is too late to follow any of those). [Charts are not posted here]
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Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Posted by DavidDT at 9/23/2008 02:11:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post
Posted by DavidDT at 9/23/2008 10:39:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post
out of XHB with +1.6% profit overnight,it is going higher most likely
Posted by DavidDT at 9/23/2008 10:34:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post
The process of establishing the "bottom"
This is the PROCESS, not a one day event, especially after disaster of this magnitude - I-Banks are gone, model broken, entire system (not just financial) is in distress.
Expect extremely volatile trading (like it was not volatile yet)
As long as major indexes will not undercut September 18th closing values markets ARE IN THE PROCESS of attempting to establish higher lows. Expect sudden selloffs - FED/Government are quite out of options and it does not look like that they have time to carefully evaluate impact of their desperate measures on the market ( I refrain from saying "they have no idea" - why state the obvious)
I will be doing very short lived trades (and the moment I will place the trade on equity I WILL place HARD stops 2-3% away from paid price) or if things get messy again ( and they might get even messier any moment) - I will just stop trading all along, keeping 80% in cash equivalent.
Expect losses on many trades in this trading environment or stay away to preserve capital.
Posted by DavidDT at 9/23/2008 08:40:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post
Monday, September 22, 2008
Expecting (XLF) bounce in the morning
XLF finished the day on selling note, long players abandoned "no rules" game, short sellers outcasted, volume mediocre, FED will have to come to the senses to avoid further bloodshed and instead of "short selling ban" I think they might switch back to uptick rule.
XLF sits on reasonable "line on the sand" now ( 1 day charts) and still managed to close above downtrending channel on 2 days chart. I am trading small ( except for "life savior day trades" in order to keep cash balances in my IRA accounts out of "money Markets" - 3 days till settle date it cannot be swept into money markets)
Posted by DavidDT at 9/22/2008 11:34:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post
Bought 1/2 of intended XHB position @20.05
Posted by DavidDT at 9/22/2008 03:40:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post
Posted by DavidDT at 9/22/2008 02:36:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post
Posted by DavidDT at 9/22/2008 02:17:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post
Posted by DavidDT at 9/22/2008 01:54:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post
I would stay away from any short positions in UltraShort financial ETFs and not touch puts on any financials - they are incorrectly priced due to current "ban"
Posted by DavidDT at 9/22/2008 12:50:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post
Thursday, September 18, 2008
"CRL" Bought few GRMN Sep40 calls @0.10
pure lotto just to keep myself busy
Posted by DavidDT at 9/18/2008 10:11:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
I opened XLF Oct22 long calls position @.47 today based on $VIX hitting level not seeing for years. Why would you ask?
Back in Aug2007 VIX spiked higher, same in Jan 2008, but this is just it - "Spiked" - it did not close that high, nor was rising above 30 for 3 consecutive days.
The second reason is that XLF in spite of extreme panic mode did not undercut July's lows, as a matter of fact today's and yesterday's lows were slightly above July 14th and July16th lows and volume was real high.
Of course I did overpaid for calls - implied volatility was insane today, even if XLF will go up tomorrow my calls' premiums are going to go down, but I am willing to accept it if XLF will hold the double bottom and if it will - move up might be fast and furious.
SMH long calls trade has less reasons and more of a "gut fell".
Posted by DavidDT at 9/17/2008 09:39:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post
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