If things were not bad enough...or former's KGB opinion

When people are bullish - they bullish to extremes,
when bearish - apocalypses is unavoidable.
Where is that long lost common sense few of us crave for?
What is common sense today?
Who is right, what will be, who will prosper and who...the rest?

Enjoy your morning flipping pages of what some thought of once as of "reputable financial publication"

USA will split

At least chances for that are not any worse than those who is getting married and will split withing 2 years - 1 out of 2 :-)

Gold anyone? Now?

New Year resolutions...or "should you be trading"

 

(Originally posted in December 2006, reposting for the benefits of Trading To Win community

New Year resolutions...or "should you be trading" )

 

We all humans, we all use dates to make important decisions, we need excuses like
"After New Year I will ..." - and those dots are just what I'd like to talk about.
But first lets have a quiz, simple one, "Yes" and "No" answers.
1. Recently you had a "fender-bender" cause that other person stepped on the brakes all in a sudden.
(Not because you were not ANTICIPATING such event)
Y/N
2. Your kid asked to go to the country fair together and you were too busy studying the stock charts.
Y/N
3. You lost on a trade because of intense argument with your better half ( Hey, the "other" half is ALWAYS better :)
Y/N
4. You did not do something in time ( you were too busy watching delayed YAHOO stock quotes) and your boss did not give you a raise.
Y/N
5. For your portfolio you created 2 separate watch lists - one for stocks in green and you watch it religiously all the time just for the pure pleasure of it, calling your neighbor to show this list and be able to say: "On average those stocks are up 5%",
and
the second list which is substantially bigger in all respects, such as number of stocks and negative percentages, but of course, no more than -50%, of course not - your broker most likely sold that deeply margined position to be safe, and that SECOND list is the one you prefer to never look at, agonizingly hoping that somehow, miraculously you will get your money back, sometime, not soon, but sometime - and you quit smoking in order to be able to live long enough to see that moment
Y/N
6. You come home from work ( let say 7 PM EST) and you run to look at your portfolio and then you say: " I knew it was going to go down - I had to sell yesterday!" instead of "SELLING YESTERDAY"
Y/N

This list can go on and on so I'd rather stop right here before I become even more cranky than I usually am.
THE BOTTOM LINE - If you answered "YES" to one or more questions, then the "dots" in unfinished "New Year resolution" MUST be replaced with
"After New Year I will NEVER TRADE AGAIN"

After you say that, you might
1. ( Most common one) - BREAK YOUR PROMISE, lose your money, lose your job, family
( SAVE YOU ALL GOD FROM ANYTHING LIKE THAT - I, myself, almost lost everything many years ago )
2. Really stop trading ( tough choice - I know )
3. Find the BALANCE between trading and life, family, work, all that really important non material stuff, re-analyze what you did wrong, stop hiding from reality of unavoidable losses, stop blaming someone else for your mistakes, in short "learn to stand the heat" - in this case
YOU MIGHT STILL BE ABLE TO MAKE MONEY IN THE STOCK MARKET
Many Happy Returns, Best wishes to you and your families in New 2007 Year.
DavidDT

Merry Christmas,

Happy Chanukah

and a very Happy New 2009 Year

to you and your families

"Giant on the feet of clay"

"The banking system is a monstrous giant on the feet of clay"

"Never in the history of the world have we faced so much complexity combined with incompetence in understanding it properly"

I came to United States from the country where logical thinking in political and economical terms were not permitted, thou it was achieved by brut prohibition rather than by employing CNBC's cheerleaders selling "endless American prosperity" to uneducated blindly patriotic over consuming John Q Public.

Only under these artificially cultivated conditions such things as

"cream pie fight" could appear funny,

leaving lots of food on the plate was as much as a norm as ignoring existence of hungry surrounding world,

killing Wal-Mart employee chasing after flat screen TV was "an incident" rather than CRIME,

producing high school graduates not capable of multiplying 2x2 was "equal opportunities education" (skyrocketing number of potheads dropouts was ignored...is ignored) rather than inability to maintain proper educational staff as oppose to CLOWNS,

politicians screaming about "illegal Mexican immigrants" and ignoring H1 Visa holders (covered up as "much needed due to lack of American workers in that field" - programming is a good example)

Above list can continue indefinitely, I don't pretend that I "know it all" or "smarter than some", I am not a "smooth talker" (or even "smooth writer"for that matter) and I certainly not a "fighter" anymore.

Why don't we listen from time to time to really smart people and not to worry about their "timing" - their "time" WILL COME if not "has come already"

(word of caution - you will probably have as much trouble understanding their accents as my writing, but it is to your very own benefits not to laugh as we, Americans, were taught to do when travelling to Europe...and... try not to think of "Black Swan" in terms of charts - it is a totally different animal...)

Enjoy...

The REAL Maverick: Present Economy worse than Depression

I am in "New York State Of Mind"

Well, to be exact - 'in Holiday state of mind"

I don't do a lot of shopping, my 3 ex wives take good care of it, I just go to New York and spend time going to Carnegie Hall, Metropolitan, meet with old friends, they all look really bad nowadays - most of them worked for now gone or about to be gone companies, yes, I did spend most of my work carrier during "New York Times" (before I moved to Connecticut after 9/11) in financial institutions, sounds just like "mental institutions" today, oh well.

Not being able or willing to decipher intermediate term market direction, I just clip few /ES trades daily and sleep well, except for tonight - I got caught in few long /ES @876.25, went out to smoke and saw it down 20 points - will be fine tomorrow. I will not be actively posting or trading till New Year - I think it is time to enjoy soma cabbage I made during this crazy year...

Enjoy Holidays, if not everything is "alright" in your world - think that "it could be worse" and the way it is going it most certainly WILL get MUCH worse.

 

Barbra Streisand • New York State Of Mind • [1977]• " Streisand Superman"

The answer I'd like to know (Kudlow)

Larry, do you have ANY moral standards whatsoever to be able to face the camera and being watched by "-533K jobs lost by REAL PEOPLE" and not to apologize for "Being WRONG on the market, WRONG on economy" and, as small symbolic compensation, offer to redistribute all the money CNBC paid to you into sinking unemployment compensation funds?

8:30am
USD

Non-Farm Employment Change -533K

In the pack - Kudlow

"You are out of your mind!" J.B.

Arrogance, paid cheerleading and just plain stupidity

vs. "Smart, quiet, confident, concerned, honest"

The answer I'd like to know:

"Why they put bagel thief  or pot head in jail and morons you see in this video are still at large?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

In Consumer We Trust?

[ original photo location ]

Roughly 70% of this economy is built on these people buying things they don't need and spending money they don't have. They call "that" sound economy?
Do these people look like they have no closes to wear, no TVs to watch, no food to eat?
WHY ARE THEY STORMING THE STORES???

"Windows XP does not save user settings" - FIXED!

What fixing bug of Windows XP has to do with trading?

A lot! It was driving me totally and utterly insane for quite a while, when after yet another Automatic Update from Microsoft all in a sudden any customizations I made to Windows layout were not there after reboot. Taskbar gone, menus reordered, windows sizes and positions set to some ridiculous forms and shapes.

Finally, after long, really long google search and combining multiple recommendations I found solution which worked (fingers crossed)

For tech savvy solution is below (registry access is needed, save before you tweak it - one wrong move and your system might become non-operational)

Good luck...

Windows Registry Editor Version 5.00

[HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Microsoft\Windows\CurrentVersion\Policies\Explorer]
"NoSaveSettings"=dword:00000000

[HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\Software\Microsoft\Windows\CurrentVersion\Run]
"SystemTray"="SysTray.Exe"

[-HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Microsoft\Windows\ShellNoRoam\BagMRU]
[-HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Microsoft\Windows\ShellNoRoam\Bags]

[HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Microsoft\Windows\Shell]
"BagMRU Size"=dword:00001f40

[HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Microsoft\Windows\ShellNoRoam]
"BagMRU Size"=dword:00001f40

Yet another "mechanical" day

Really boring and totally predictable intraday action.

5AM countdown advised "sell on open"

1:20Pm to 2:30PM buy countdown coupled with buy setup hinted on release of some "good news".

Pivots contained ranged trading quite efficiently - what a boring, but very profitable day.

Order Book

Time	Order ID	Description	Status
11/21/08 13:28:13	********	BOT +16 /ESZ8 @752.25	5
11/21/08 11:50:45	********	SOLD -6 /ESZ8 @758.50	5
11/21/08 11:21:49	********	SOLD -10 /ESZ8 @751.50	5
11/21/08 10:53:39	********	BOT +10 /ESZ8 @751.00	4
11/21/08 10:30:24	********	SOLD -10 /ESZ8 @754.50	4
11/21/08 10:23:47	********	BOT +10 /ESZ8 @756.50	3
11/21/08 10:22:56	********	SOLD -10 /ESZ8 @760.25	3
11/21/08 09:59:52	********	SOLD -10 /ESZ8 @759.00	2
11/21/08 09:58:36	********	BOT +10 /ESZ8 @756.75	2
11/21/08 09:46:21	********	SOLD -10 /ESZ8 @768.00	1
11/21/08 09:39:17	********	BOT +10 /ESZ8 @763.75	1
11/21/08 02:04:07	********	SOLD -10 /ESZ8 @776.00	yest pos.

"Hope" is gone...time to start over

At the time when the last TV personality whore who could not care less about our money for as long as they were getting paid for whatever they were told to say by supervising crooks (long sentence? I don't care), so at the time when hysterically giggling Erin Burnett, nonsense talking Chinese Girl, bullish all the way down curly none knows about trader Peter Costa ( list goes on and on and on) - at the time when they stopped talking nonsense like"America #1" and "Financial Capital of the Known Universe", at such time market is getting close to the bottom.

Time to stop pumping borrowed prosperity, time to stop admiring cheap Chinese goods and start building factories in US, time to kick out Nardelly who screwed up at Home Depot, got obscene amount of money for that and resurfaced at Chrysler because he knew someone, time to stop admiring Warren Buffet (GS is $50 now - great deal he's got at $115) and Brad Pitt for one on a MILLION chance they were given, time to outcast Gasparino who "believes in Big Dick Fuld.

This IS THE TIME

Time to ask ourselves: "Whose fault was that? "

Time to be honest and say: "OURS"

WE let them DO THAT.
WE let them rob us.
WE let them get paid for nothing.
WE borrowed from THEM in order for them to get richer.
WE let THEM outsource our jobs.
WE let THEM leave us with no retirement we paid for.
WE let THEM ask us in an emergency room if WE have money to pay.
WE... WE... WE...
When are we going to stop being stupid lazy politically inert self deluding nation?
When are we going to stop playing "democracy"?
When are we going to stop saying: "Everything is really bad, BUT WE live in the GREAT country"? Huh??? Compared to what? Haiti?

Oh well...time for some charts - there is some light at the end of the tunnel there, some major ETFs completing TDSetup Buy this very week - up we go next?

 

Transports TDsetupBuy

Small Cap - TDSetup BUY

 

Financials - DTSetupBuy

 

Energy - TDSetupBuy 3 weeks ago - holding TDST - buy

 

Dreaded $VIX (why pay attention after they started to trade options on VIX and totally skewed data?)

Not counting "super Spike" - it stalled at the current level - time to retreat?

 

DavidDT

P.S. I am biased indeed, I've got stopped from multiple bullish positions (long calls and short puts) with losses and BIDU long trade initially totaling to 20%(!!!) of my portfolio is off 25% pulling portfolio down over 7% in just one week!!! That is too big of a risk I took and steep price I paid ( Am I talking Yoda?)

Following the wisdom of Tim Knight

One of my readers just spread the word that Tim Knight from Prophet Charts (also chef in charge of Slope of Hope blog) just proclaimed that: "This is a bear market and it will be here for years and any bull will be torn to peaces for years to come"

Great
I listen
to
people
who have
difficult time
to
STOP
in time

BEAR IS ABOUT TO BE OVER?

Just a thought - I love and respect Tim Knight just like I loved my squealing girlfriend back in kindergarten.
And, take my word for it - he is definitely more honest and smarter than Jimmy Pump Boy Cramer

Recap of posts from contributors site Friday/Monday

(BIDU) 1st update

Setting buy order for the first 1/4 of intended position at 138 area.

(BIDU)

BIDU has completed TDSequential Buy Countdown on weekly (cannot be qualified as TDCombo due to first count bar being lower).
Possible TDSetup Buy completion 3 days from now on daily.
Acceleration bands were penetrated on downside (negative), but looking at prior similar scenarios - that penetration resulted in return back into the Acc. Chanel)

I might be opening long position within next hour ( watching possible completion of TDSetup Buy on 15min for better timing)

Possible move up

In this market fundamentals and technicals don't tell us much on a day to day basis, but worth noting that multitude of stocks just have completed TDSequential Buy Countdown day or two ago and no lesser number will complete TDSetup Buy tomorrow.
I think markets are due for a meaningful pop.

Posted by DavidDT at 11/17/2008 09:53:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Possible move up

In this market fundamentals and technicals don't tell us much on a day to day basis, but worth noting that multitude of stocks just have completed TDSequential Buy Countdown day or two ago and no lesser number will complete TDSetup Buy tomorrow.
I think markets are due for a meaningful pop.

Leave Kashkari alone!!!

Stop slamming that poor guy with honest face and clean record (that is why he was picked up to be a patsy)

Don't blame the messenger - get to the roots and weed them out!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41hcO9rdN4o

 

Same old story time and again - nothing will ever change...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEaoITBQEao

One hell of a day

As always, picture worth a thousand words.

From starting out as 97:3 decliners:advancers day, after rejecting recent lows, ignoring INTC "gloom and doom" forecast, after hedge funds managers McCarthy style Congressional nonsense, after inability of soon to be history El Presidente Bush sound waves to bring market down more  - burst of volume and finish with the ratio decliners:advancers 6:92 (2 SBUX and BEAS unchanged - why BEAS is still there?). And no sweet candy for hopeful from FED?

Just the way I like it...

 

Recap of posts from "Regular contributors site" (Nov11/12/13)

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Closing QQQQ Nov28 calls

will be trading around, with cost 2.06 selling at 2.60 hard to pass
(holding Dec28)

Posted by DavidDT at 11/13/2008 03:51:00 PM 1 comments Links to this post

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

(NICE)...could be nice

Was flipping through the charts today without much enthusiasm, then just to break latest "play reversal routine" decided to run quick scan from good old bull times.
Glad I did - I, most likely, will be buying that Israeli security software solutions (if memory serves me well)

(NAT) attracted my interest as well on the long side, but glad I looked at the news - has "Cramer's kiss of death" all over it - still will be keeping an eye on it.
P.S. One of the readers criticized me for posting my day trades - by the time it is in readers mailboxes a lot of things might and DO change.
So very true...I stand corrected...

Posted by DavidDT at 11/12/2008 10:10:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Well...

Well...
Since my anxiety level reached previously known mark ( "the hell with everything, sell all, get on cash, go to Morocco for 2 months...")
therefore we are at yet another bottom
and I am buying lots of QQQQ Dec28 calls @2.65

Posted by DavidDT at 11/12/2008 03:24:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Sold to close GLD Nov71puts

cost 1.80 sell 2.40 (33% profit 4 days)

Posted by DavidDT at 11/12/2008 10:56:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Buying QQQQ Nov28 calls

for day trade when QQQQ will be in 29.20 - 29.40 range in the next 20-30 minutes.
Desired fill price under $2

Posted by DavidDT at 11/12/2008 10:31:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Some ideas I am looking at

long (soon?) PFE, OMCL, HOLX, SGP, MRK, BMR(have position), HUM, MOH.
INWK looks intresting long for some reason.
Short candidates: MYGN ( I think this one is ready), ISIS(?),
gold miners: RGLD, GG (off25?), KGC

Posted by DavidDT at 11/11/2008 10:13:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Fallout Shelter anyone?

The world as we knew it has ended - at least if you listen to "Financial Info-tainment Shopping networks"

Attempts to call stock market bottom raise McCarthy style reaction: "Do you belong to the organization profiteering on selling stocks higher and covering lower?"

The search for Al-Qaeda is over - everyone knows now that no terrorist could do to the country what uncontrolled greed has done.

Bulls are wiped, bears are totally indecisive now - none has an answer: "Where to?"

No hope, no perspective, no waving the flag.

Japan looks like a sweet place now.

Just one essential component is missing to effectively call the real bottom - the day when major information source will interview people building bomb shelters on their backyards.

 

New 3x ETFs

In the world of de-leveraging some still look for good ole leverage plays

(volumes are still very low...)

If you’re a 300% bull type needing a bit more leverage …

Name	Symbol	Index	Daily Exposure Target
Large Cap Bull 3x	BGU	Russell 1000	300%
Small Cap Bull 3x	TNA	Russell 2000	300%
Energy Bull 3x	ERX	Russell 1000 Energy	300%
Financial Bull 3x	FAS	Russell 1000 Financials	300%

And if you’re a 300% bear looking for inverse juice …

Name	Symbol	Index	Daily Exposure Target
Large Cap Bear 3x	BGZ	Russell 1000	-300%
Small Cap Bear 3x	TZA	Russell 2000	-300%
Energy Bear 3x	ERY	Russell 1000 Energy	-300%
Financial Bear 3x	FAZ	Russell 1000 Financials	-300%

Source: Direxionshares.com

World has not stopped?

Posted on "Regular Contributors Private Site" November 5Th 2008

More charts, more opinions, more often, dedicated email support, and personal trades posted!

(Here is how to join)

 

World has not stopped?

  According to CNBC China slowed down, they don't eat, don't grow, don't produce, don't ship.
Same goes for the rest of BRIC.

And forget about USA's grows prospects for the next 2 years.

It is all might well be true and Baltic Dry ship index collapsed to the levels not seeing since 2001.

The more "they" talk about "it" the more I want to do something in spite of everything being so bad.

May be I am just biased ( I am a perpetual bull, unfortunately), but somehow Coal Producers and Shipping Companies look very interesting long with clearly defined risk ( I am not sure that is this market any risk might be "clearly defined" - the best we can do is to trade small and honor stops no matter what) 

 

 

• 
• 

Recap of today's posts on "Regular Contributors Site"

"Regular Contributors Private Site" (Here is how to join)

===============================================

Friday, November 7, 2008

GS might stage rally on Monday?

Just a thought - that is why after the close.
Have a great weekend

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 03:59:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Speculation Friday - (ICO)

The WORST of any coal company, but somehow I have a gut feel ( or think I do) that it just might be decent replacement for cowardly dropped BTU position.
Bought 1/2 @3.20

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 03:55:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Tough decision to make

Decided to hold all new positions, including few GLD Nov71puts ( @1.80) over weekend.
See you Monday

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 03:43:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Bidding few GLD Nov71puts

@1.80
delta .39
IVol only 44%

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 12:18:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Buying XLF Nov13 calls for day trade

.XJZKM
IV 81% ( ok)
delta .71
bidding @1.52 ( might move higher)

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 12:07:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Bought to close INTC Nov13puts

Bought to close INTC Nov13puts @.24( avg sell price .44.5)
45% profit overnight

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 12:03:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

So much for the "bad math skills" :)

Yesterday's miscalculated QQQQ down target when I had to leave after 2 PM, order was set for 30.17 was not reached by just 23c, well, money not made in this market better than money lost. Bummer... (should I be watching QQQQ action I would buy 10 Nov31calls @.80+ when qqqq was at 30.50 reversing to the upside - another good 60% profit missed.
BTU stop at 28.07 set due to the same reason ( business meeting) took me out of otherwise profitable trade ( today's high 30.06, so reasonable sell would have been 29.80 - on $20000 position (about 700 shares) - $1000 not made.
Due to this morning meeting missed sell point for EXM at about 11.40+ - another $1000 not made.
Why am I talking "coulda-shoulda- woulda" when it makes no difference?
Just to remind myself, that is this difficult market with sudden changes, positions MUST be monitored constantly and I broke the rule by "setting it and forgetting it" - IDEAS were good, execution smells badly
Being right on the market does not automatically makes you money...
Oh, well, I am back home - may be will spot something to trade - thou doubt it - not willing to hold anything over weekend ( since my downside target for QQQQ around 29.4+ was not reached - at the point where it is now - I don't know what direction it will go...

blue dotted line is CMF14 ( Chaikin Money Flow ) centerline - looks like more distribution to me.

solid blue - is CMF

on hourly yellow line - my expected down target yesterday.

on weekly yellow - important zone of support

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 11:52:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Hunting QQQQ Nov31 calls

Unfortunately, have to leave the house for few hours ( still have not mastered PALM based ThinkOrSwim trading platform, which IS cool, but not for my eyes)
Setting up DAY conditional order to buy 1/2 of intended position in QQQQ Nov31 calls when QQQQ last <= 29.82
Stopped out of BTU position at28.07 yesterday (loss 28c = 1%)
Holding EXM (cost 10.90)
Hope to be back by noon
Good luck.
P.S. If anyone using software with built in DeMark studies, I would appreciate such person posting his/her take intraday at real time chat
http://www.tangler.com/forum/trading-to-win

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 08:58:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Thursday, November 6, 2008

BTU starts to worry me

Most likely will sell at break even ( or will set stop at 28.07)

Posted by DavidDT at 11/06/2008 02:33:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

QQQQ acting in line with expectations

Posted by DavidDT at 11/06/2008 02:29:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Selling few more INTC Nov13puts @.47

Hope to be back by the end of the day

Posted by DavidDT at 11/06/2008 01:54:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

"Why EXM long?"

I hope this chart speaks for itself, don't hesitate to ask if you have to

Posted by DavidDT at 11/06/2008 01:22:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Bidding for few $VIX Nov55put @4.20

Also, sold few INTC Nov13puts @.42

Posted by DavidDT at 11/06/2008 01:15:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

$VIX intraday

So far looks like $VIX might stop climbing after 2PM.
It plays well with "sell before weallllly bad Friday's jobs number"
I will be monitoring QQQQ calls I intend to buy - will have to decide if it has to be done today or tomorrow first thing in the morning.
The problem with "buy today" for me is that I will have to leave for busyness meeting at 2PM - might not make it back in before 4PM.
So far I am setting up conditional day order to buy 1/3 of intended QQQQ Nov31 calls position when QQQQ last = 30.17