“You get out there and give 110%”

Our tireless paparazzi team has obtained never seen before photograph of
Stainless Steel Hamster
He looks and acts as crazy as he writes and since today [Sunday] is his Birthday stop by at EvilSpeculator and wish him well.

[If you prefer to treat that photo as an official BLS Unemployment report – you will make no mistake by doing so]

$DXY (/DX)
Happy to report that all Two Ply Dollar needed was few insults by yours truly, that was the last drop and voila – Friday we had one of the biggest dollar moves up since start of decline in the beginning of the March of 2009.  Now – if you expect stock market to start falling off the cliff on stronger dollar – be real, not going to happen.  In the bad economy stock market and currency are inversely correlated, but in [possibly] improving economy – sound currency is an added benefit.  But since I am not a long term trader – I am just happy that 74.10+ long trade worked out so well (and , of course, I am mad as hell for not taking the gold short trade I’ve been advocating just 2 days ago based on that weird “3 days chart”!)

So much contradicting noise on very respectful blogs – it can be expressed in just few words: “What is going on? I/we have no idea/we might go up/go down/stay/changing opinion, but…/why do we even bother”
Don’t blame nobody (pardon my double negative), but is serves as a very good explanation why I DO NOT READ ANYBODY.
THEY ALL KNOW NOTHING, PERIOD. (Including me, of course)
Have a plan, trade the plan, have your exit plan always.

Here is what I think: “How the hell do I know????”
Joking – I know…it just might change fast.

$SPX
Possible down wave sequence was canceled – refer to Thursday’s post 36 minutes chart (no wonder there – a lot of 1-2s are chimeras, but IF caught correctly – very profitable ones with nice 3-5 ride)

Here is a pure speculation of what might happen on Monday (first move down is due to multiple sell setups into the close on Friday, next move up – to build possible 1-2 of down sequence)
Overall, it is quite possible that bulls and bears will be very disappointed with range bound trading till New Year, unless dollar trade will pick up steam (squeeze) – then it’ll be a totally different ballgame.



(IYR) - “we are out of the woods” short


And here comes the daily doze of good news!

And last, but not least, I, as an expert on government lying to citizens and pimping propaganda BS (I am from former USSR after all)  – the answer I’d like to know:

“What loser propagandist moron teacher drilled/trained Christina Romer?” (THAT woman is PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER – watch that video and tell me – HOW TF is she QUALIFIED to “ADVISE”?????)

I am not even asking how low IQ of John Q. Public is that she is allowed anywhere near “advising”

And, would not you agree that interview below was most likely coached by the same person?  Wait…is that the SAME PERSON???

Every Time the Opening Bell Rings....

... a good trader gets their wings. What a great week, even though we had our highs and lows in more ways than one. I always hate to sound so cynical because by nature I'm really so optimistic I make my own self sick... but I learned a long time ago to think like the person on the other side of the trade and how they're gaming to take my money. As mentioned several times today, there were some signs that all is not what it might appear to be in the land of green shoots and holiday cheer. It's seems there was a wee bit 'o distribution going on. So when that bell rings on Monday (or Sunday night for you futures and FX traders) let's be ready to put on the wings and make some money. Before I escape for awhile to go through my boxes of holiday decorations and untangle a few hundred miles of Christmas lights, I thought I'd share good old Macy's with you, as well as Osi's EOD chart to remind us of where we left off this week and where we're going into the next week. Enjoy your weekend and holidays be it Chanukah or Christmas festivities, and please share your charts and ideas over the weekend if the mood strikes you. Thanks everybody for not only a profitable week, but also just a good time amongst like-minded traders. Also, if you have time this weekend to kill, here is the link shared by Otterby earlier on Person’s Pivots. Thanks Otterby!

Osi’s charts

Merry Christmas from Macy’s

“… I know nobody knows where it comes, where it goes,

I know it’s everybody’s sin, you gotta to

lose to know how to win.” Dream on TTWrs.

 

DDT Here, Sunday 9AM EST

As Trader Steve fairly noted the title of this post belongs to this movie (as oppose to our favorite Macy’s mention in honor of “Miracle on 34th Street”):

 

 

Thank you Steve!

Time to Switch Gears?

Is the dollar finally going to get the short squeeze a lot of us have been anticipating? It's difficult to guess, but I thought it might be time to review how we can best exploit that trade if this starts to work. The game has basically changed as far as who's leading and lagging today and this is obviously all dollar related. The Dow started lagging early into the tape. These are the stocks that have been relying on the sinking dollar and exports and they seem to be taking quite a lovely hit so far. I apologize for no trend lines on my charts, but my software decided to laugh at me today, but you'll get the gist by just looking at the candles. Anyway... my theory was the RUT would take the biggest hit off of a lower dollar and higher oil, and that trade has worked very well, but again.. it might be time to consider the large caps with international exposure now if the dollar starts a move up. So a few examples in the charts.

I'd also like to say: it was one tough cookie to wake up to these ridiculous UE numbers today, we've been slapped silly for so long it's difficult to stay focused and positive. But dig deeper folks, we've made it this far and they haven't defeated any of us, nor will they. Sometimes we just have to be firewalkers- mind over matter, nothing more. So hang in there, we have an excellent support system here. P.S. as I'm finishing this these charts look even worse. :-D

Me love you long time

“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke today defended the central bank's record and argued to preserve its regulatory powers as Democratic and Republican lawmakers sharply criticized Bernanke and the Fed for serious lapses that contributed to the financial crisis.”

 

Yeah, OK, have not had that much fun for a very long time – what a show they put up.

Money were returned to rich – they are the owners after all, poor served with free soup in order for them not to revolt (those who have nothing to lose might just be stupid enough to stand up to the tanks), middle class have been “loved long time” (here is the problem – if everyone will have nothing to lose – there might be more people who are just “stupid enough”)

 

The very same people in Senate who was/is part of all this betrayal of democratic principles now rushing to criticize FED for having too much power that CONgress/Senate let them to have?  And John Q. Public will buy it?  Sure it will – what is he going to do?

 

Lots of fun indeed, thou there was one part that slightly upset me, that is when Ben Shalomchik (his family is from what became part of Russia in 1918 after all – may be McArthur was right when he jumped out of the window shouting “Russians are coming”) said something like: “None would be able to foresee…blah blah blah”

SO – you are

either STUPID MORON and countless number of people who are LESS economically educated who called disaster in the making back in 2006/2007 (including yours truly) are better suited for serving as FED Chairman

OR

you are so bought that you don’t care what impression you will make on anyone with IQ above single digits.

Make a pick – I, for one, knowing that “hand washes hand” opt for #2.

 

Back to charts

Short term we have multitude of buy signals completed right into end of day.

Here is 1800tick /es

 

 

Longer term view

And finally weekly – nice rejection of “blue channel upper line”

 

 

Back to “Me love you long time”

 

The AAPL of My Eye

A nice beginning to this trading day, but we've been snookered so often I'm sure we all remain paranoid for the rest of the session. On one hand we have the dufusses in Congress pretending to grill Benny for the cameras, and Benny is lecturing them on entitlements in defense of himself! It's like the Keystone Cops! What a world.... Further contractions in the service industries and another 457K lost their jobs, and that's what you get when you've stopped producing anything in your own borders and you have buffoons running things. End of rant. We are in a seasonally positive time for the market like it or not, so any pullbacks may be short and sweet. If not? Then Santa comes early. Trade nimble.

There are a few charts of interest today, including AAPL. Some of us are already short this lovely little stock, and good luck to you on that trade going forward. We also came very close to filling the gap on the VIX this morning with a mere .04 miss so far today. Amgrant, you may not have invented your VIX/VXV indicator, but nonetheless, you brought it to our attention, and thanks for doing so. Every little bit helps as we trade this tape. You really can teach seasoned dogs new tricks. ;-)

Tomorrow's economic calendar includes: November unemployment at 8:30. Factory orders and Charles Plosser speaks at 10:00, and James Bulltard speaks at 1:15 PM. Good trading to everybody!

 

And for my pal Bala today:

When Will Then be Now?

Don’t you think that market action of the last two weeks reminds certain parts of the above picture?  One top, one bottom, another top, another bottom, yet another top…enough already?

 

Here is a quick video with review of some DeMark-ian trades I took during the last 2 weeks (I did not take every single signal, mostly on the short side, but for illustrations purposes it is not that important.

 

Have to worn you – obviously my thought were somewhere else and video came out as vague as it gets.

 

 

 

 

 

When Will Then Be Now?

Fly Me to the Moon

Wednesday finds the $RUT going parabolic in terms of the rest of the tape, with $TRANS also outperfoming. As we watch the intraday moves I thought I'd draw your eyes to what's going on with the trannies, and airline sector in particular. Thanks for that reminder MoneyFarm. Oddly enough, it appears that $BDI is making a pullback, so that's also worth a look and something to stay aware of as a potential early signal for any correction. I'm making this short and sweet this afternoon as I have to take off for a lunch out, and will be back for the afternoon session.

As mentioned by one of our posters, always follow your own trading rules and system. That said, what we do that is extremely special on TTW is compare notes constantly with our various methodologies and forecasts as a group, but take our trades as individuals. Let's keep it up because we all benefit from all observations, and that is the purpose of a trading forum afterall, or we would just be sitting in our own little corners talking to the wall. ;-) Good trading to you today!

Goodbye “Three Drives”

For moon phases believers – tomorrow is full moon, may be we’ll get some good ‘ole fashioned Obama style “change”, may be even few quarters of change, wooden ones AND market will orderly go down from the highs of w2 of possible new sequence down.

 

Anyhow, last week was a total roller coaster, up 2 days, down 3 days, up… you all saw that picture.

Here is what it was in light of D-Wave and 3 drives pattern (which is “no more” and so far what I said on November 18th:

“What am I saying is that, yes, market might and probably will go higher, but for the purpose of “3dp” conversation – I think this “current hump” is finished.”

held water 100% )

 

Here is chart ( 2 charts, but second is just a zoomed version of first) to demonstrate “departure” of “3 drives”

 

Entire “3D”

 

Zoomed A-B-C of the chart above

 

12/02/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projections	Low	High
/ES	1100.50	1120
SPX	1103.57	1117.26
/NQ	1778.75	1811.50
NDX	1784.90	1800.91
/DX	73.995	74.794

 

And to finish up on my usual upbeat note – here is a brand new 2009 shopping video (I don’t know how credible that video is – looks quite real to me)

 

The Road Less Traveled?

Tuesday brings us right back to the same place on the journey, wondering if we're about to see a turn or just more upside. As mentioned often here, the big moves happen before the market even opens, and just take a look at my intraday chart on SPY and tell me how in to trade that chart with any semblance of sanity? Really and truly, to stay away from this tape unless you see an extremely high probability of a decent trade is about the smartest thing anyone can do at this point. But... some of us are more nimble than others and can and will find trades to capitalize on. Yes, it's tougher trading, but it can be done, so all is not lost. Other than that, I really have no pearls of wisdom to share at this point, nor charts that you haven't already studied yourself diligently looking for clues. We know these charts better than the back of our hands.

So with that, tomorrow's economic calendar includes: Challenger Job Report at 7.30 AM, Tim Geithner at 9:30, Petroleum Status at 10:30 and Beige Book at 2:00. Thursday finds our friend Ben testifying before the Senate Banking Committee.

Good trading into the afternoon and be careful.

Can you find a solid way to trade this chart?










This tape reminds me of Mike Rowe trying to sell a $35 cat bag.

Morning rant

I’ve been doing some thinking and the answer I’d like to know: “WTF do I have to analyze intermediate term charts if chances of being right are as good as 50/50 and they do tend to change in about 15 minutes so everyone – bulls and bears can have enough time to shout famous last words “I told you so” and get rid of their money almost the same instant?


Why anyone in good mind would do anything else, but day trade in this market?
Day trade it is now…

But again -
WTF has happened at 3AM EST?
Nuclear explosion for 10 upside /ES points please?
May I buy meteor strike for 15?

12/01/2009 Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection	Low	High
/ES	1088.75	1102.50
SPX	1090.94	1101.93
/NQ	1758.50	1783.75
NDX	1759.16	1779.15
/DX	74.443	74.969

Leisa posted yesterday in comments:

I found this quote from a couple of years ago by George Soros. I'm going to put it by my computer.

“Economic history is a never-ending series of
episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the
path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise
is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited."