Sunday, April 12, 2009

“You must ask the right questions”


Dr. Alfred Lanning: Everything that follows is a result of what you see here.
Detective Del Spooner: Is there something you want tell me?
Dr. Alfred Lanning: I'm sorry. My responses are limited. You must ask the right questions.

I don’t read much these days... that would be “I don’t read much of other people financial websites” (except for very very few)

“If you know something about the stock I am trading in, something really, really important, please keep it to yourself.  Don’t tell me.”

Bernard Baruch

Now back to my own home made usual hoopla...


Good news first: SPX has been in ascending channel for quite a while now - wonderful - I can keep selling whatever I have accumulated during March 2nd-March 7th period at the much better prices than I could have expected.


Lots of bad news now:

Ascending channels are bearish

Ascending channels where most of the price action happens due to overnight gaps (grey circles) with failure to follow though with strong daytime price action are bearish.

Big green candles right at the bottom of the ascending channel are bearish in a way - they indicate desperation of PPT to keep things rolling.

Busted descending wedge’s breakdown (red trendlines) produced strong upside measured move and it is over now.

860+ is a very strong long term resistance.

Asian markets gaining 40% OFF the PRIOR lows is bullish..for Asian market.  And 20% gain off the lows for American markets is a very poor excuse for the rally after losing over 57% of its value in just few months - we are just where the last snowball got rolling. And it does not prove that USA are gaining strength back, but it does add an extra argument for “Asia in 21th century IS what America WAS in 20th century.  Teach your kids Mandarin please, do them a favor - that would be much better investment in your kids’ future than wasted MBA fees. 

Low, practically inexistent volume during the day time indicates total apathy of big institutional buyers (mutual funds, pension funds etc - just hedges playing around - are not they getting tired yet?)

I can go on about fake Gold downturn, temporary dollar strength ...but you get the point - tight stops, daily research, following your positions (no setting and forgetting)

As for me - I am getting ready to jump out of the long train Monday morning if after touching 860+ on SPX market will start sliding on higher volume - and happy short I’ll be... even happier if market will hold onto gains till the end of OPX week.

...and - I have a very big list of “defensive stocks” I’ll be posting on Contributors Site tonight.