Happy Birthday Brandt!

I'd like to wish all the best to my dear friend Brandt from Trade Guild who jumped into the full time trading during the one of the most difficult market periods and successfully making it!

In the pack - Kudlow

I just thought that if I disgraced myself reacting to Mr. Cramer's un-treatable personality, then posting some info and reaction of NORMAL people on Mr. Kudlow would be appropriate to finish up my not so busy week.

Time for Bears To Step Up Risk? By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Oh, just in case if you will overlook the date of that article - it is November of 2007

The answer I'd like to know:"Don't those people understand that they make EVERYBODY SICK? And if THAT is the real face of capitalism - is not it time to change it?"
WOOF-WOOF-WOOF - "you just listened to part of Kudlow and Co. broadcast"

Mr. Cramer insists "he is an idiot"?

As been polite person ( sometimes ) I dislike to label people, especially people who proved their ability to make money, if not in the stock market, but at least, on "self marketing" - you better be lucky than smart...
Anyhow, just caught segment of "Mad Money for Dummies" where Mr. Cramer announced that he is an idiot because he bought Citrix Systems ( CTXS) in the Spring of 2006. In this particular case I really have to respectfully agree with Mr. Cramer, especially since he probably bought it from me - I sold CTXS on the week of May 1st of 2006. Not because he was anxious to buy from me, but because I wanted to sell the stock which exhibited the signs of possible collapse. Below are weekly and monthly charts of CTXS with sell signals for that time period.

"Mad Money" rules! At least for as long as hopeful lazy ignorance exists - which is - forever.

Dollar is a King? Soon?

This might just be the last reason to be short US equities markets - Dollar Bullish ETF ending month of May 2008 with "perfected" buy signal. Guess what will happen with USA when it will no longer be on sale for "No Longer 3rd World Countries"?
Have a great weekend - sleep well if you are SHORT :_)

Chart of about to be rotten (?) Apple ( AAPL)

Picture worth a thousand words, take a GOOD look at weekly AAPL chart with DeMark buy/sell signals and DeMark trendlines - I think that depending on today's ( 5/30/08) close Bear might just have another New Year's present. I am short AAPL, RIMM, QQQQ
On a positive note I have to express my admiration for CNBC who...s who try really hard to "keep straight face during the loosing game" - that is what they getting paid for - right?

Boring...

Nice week - when you get the action right indeed...
Completed building QQQQ long puts position, might add few if market will gap on the open tomorrow.
DUG long and OIH puts ( so few left that it is no relevant really) doing just fine, although I expect DUG to fail run on $30 tomorrow, pull back to $29 where I might add to position and, for some reason, I have a feeling that, since $30 is a really strong short term resistance area - DUG will just use some excuse and gap up on Monday morning.

Here my new trade ideas
Hope financial will dip some tomorrow - I will load up UYG,
same goes for homebuilders ( much smaller than UYG intended position )

Here is something very interesting - health care is coming back to life (?) - XLV is moving up, attempting to break out of slightly ascending price channel - why ? Democrats/Republicans - who cares -they don't care - why would I or health care care ( what was THAT?) - I guess it just cannot get any worse - will be a buyer for my IRAs.

These are the trades I will stay away from for the next few days:
Metals, agg commodities, other commodities, semiconductors...even in spite of the fact that all of them have sell signals, but I think there going to be high volatility on those - I think I need some sleep, good one.
P.S. Trying to come up with some lame reason "why financials will go up" - why not? If NASDAQ will go down and commodities trade is on a downslope - where the money will go? Mattress?
I need a drink, or two...
Any ladies here - I am single...no?..
b o r i n g ...

Tuesday Playbook

Just a guess...
DOW - drop on the open 100-150 points, then reversal and attempt to go up to 12700 area in few days, resuming downtrend after that.
Same ( with different "numerical" targets) goes for S&P, NASDAQ, RUSSEL.

Commodities related ( SLX, DBA, DBC, USO ...) will resume uptrend
Oil Services look really interesting - I think the break is in order, no matter oil up or down, OIH had few big fat full bodied black candles which for my unsophisticated mind indicates steady selloff - and institutions do not stop selling that easy.
Here is a pretty picture of SPY in descending channel with mechanically generated buy/consolidation and sell/consolidation signals. ( weekly and 3 days timeframes)




Have a good 3 days weekend, remember fallen soldiers, be smart and don't let anyone to fool you and force to fight for other people money.

CNBC Q&A session

QUESTION:
CNBC Talking head: Why is that energy stocks selling so badly 2 days in the row?
ANSWERS:
Commodities King: Cause I made a Lying Fool out of myself
Dumb Mutual fund manager: Bluh-bluh-bluh-luation...
Maria Full of Grace: Traders say - they got bored with making money
Gasparino: Cause my pumping and FED's deceit stopped working and people realized that real inflation is somewhere in the range of 10-12%

CNBC Talking head: Ah-ha! Makes perfect sense

So, why?
DavidDT: Hopefully you can see Fibonacci extension right at the top of XLE chart

"This time it's different" - NOT

Interesting market action yesterday, just few hours after my "Market Correction" post.
And don't listen to CNBC "talking heads" ( I wonder - why this term is so applicable to Maria Bartiromo - they don't even show lower part anymore, for the amount of money they get paid - at least some respect to viewing public and descent diet is expected, we don't ask too much, we don't expect any smart predictions/explanations, but ... what with the view??? ) and alleged affect (SNDK) had on NASDAQ ( what about a lot of others, non related to technology sectors, hard selloff?)

Yesterday afternoon, most of "hot" sectors, such as Agricultural Chemicals, Oil Services, emerging Markets ( Brazil, Africa and so on) posted WEEKLY SELL signals. This can change during the week, it is still in progress, but this is the first time during last 10 weeks I observe new weekly signals. If these signals will be confirmed at the end of this week, I would expect, least to say, either
1. Volatile Consolidation
or
2. Hard multi weeks selloff.
(Which I suspect will happen, based on multiple "ugly" Head and Shoulder patterns on a lot of "Hot Sectors" stcoks charts.
Time will tell - keeping long stops tight ( on whatever long positions I have left) and adding more short positions/long puts ( YES - I AM a sucker - I DO BUY options )

Market correction

This is a really short post - sometimes during this week I expect market to begin correction ( short or long lived - if I knew ...)
Locking into long profits, building up short positions.