Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Trading QQQQ short term

Mr. Chambers of (CSCO) painted gloom and doom picture after the close today.
I have never had much respect for his "stock market forecasting abilities", at least not for my trading purposes.
The last time he spooked the markets on February 7th 2008 his "effect" lasted for about 2 weeks, after that (QQQQ) started powerful multi week rally.
Not so Good Chambers morning to all.

Let see what chart is going to tell us now.
QQQQ closed right on 20MA. CSCO will bring QQQQ down more tomorrow, most likely to the vicinity of $30.80. Friday's jobs report will push it down some more in the morning, and, hopefully QQQQ will touch $29.30+ area. If it will start recovering from there I will be all over Nov30/31 calls for short term trade. I would say QQQQ will be forming inverted head&shoulder on daily ( left shoulder Oct22).
This trade provides reasonable stop under $29 ( I doubt we get there).
On weekly chart QQQQ completed TDSetup (buy) last week, it usually takes 2-3 weeks for price to reverse ( plays well with "Chambers' effect")
If long trade will play out, I will enter short trade (Nov30/31 puts) IF QQQQ will start going down from $33.40 area (which I think it will)
So far on weekly chart QQQQ seems to be starting to form what might turn into "inverted roof bottom" - now it is slightly too early to speculate...

I will be posting my opinion on shippers and some other stocks (to answer questions of regular contributors) on "Regular Contributors' Site" tonight ( Here is how to join )

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Posted on "Contributors Site" Oct17th-Oct22

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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Higher low?

on hourly chart DIA is at count 12 of TDCountdown, I think market will fall tom morning and then move up. or may be even today at close we will see higher low in series - 10/10, 10/16 today - 10/22???

Posted by DavidDT at 10/22/2008 03:49:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

DJX -Dow Industrial

DJX -Dow Industrial moved close enough to my downside target of about ~8500 - low of the day so far 8586.
Opened quick long positions for overnight trades with tight stops.

Posted by DavidDT at 10/22/2008 01:43:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Coal Stocks Bottoming?

Most of Coal Miners/Producers exhibit one or another bottoming patterns on weekly charts and start to flush buy signals on daily charts.
(CNX) - looks like it is forming "Inverted Roof" on weekly + this week is "count 8" on TDSetup.
 image
(BTU) - quite the same setup
image
I might start looking into Coal ( and might be broader energy group for "longer long trade).
These observations playing along nicely with "Solar stocks possible upside" theory.
Of course, there might be shake off this or next week.
Again - for me it might be 2-3 months long trade ( unless I will get stopped in 10 minutes after opening positions :)

Posted by DavidDT at 10/22/2008 10:09:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Possible intraday reversal in the next hour

Refer to my "public" post

Posted by DavidDT at 10/22/2008 10:02:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

(SOL)

I posted my take on (LDK) on main site, but I most likely, will be opening small Nov7.50 and Dec10 calls position on (SOL)

image

 

image
It is highly speculative, it is not playing well with Oil behavior, lets call it "Obama play"
(On each Nov call I will buy 2 Dec calls - entire position will account for only 1% of trading portfolio - since I am fully vested into UltraLong ETFs and getting bored - that is the way to spice up my day to day life :)

Posted by DavidDT at 10/21/2008 10:38:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Friday, October 17, 2008

DIG

DIG is stabilizing above 32.35 support
stop under 32.12

Posted by DavidDT at 10/17/2008 02:30:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Friday, October 24, 2008

"Everything we love we lose"

On Thursday October 23rd at 10:30AM our dog Taffy, lovely active healthy 5 years old Golden Retriever was left for grooming at "XYZ" Kennels "Pet Resort Hotel and Spa".
In less than 2 hours, at 12:15PM, we received a call that "Taffy passed away while in drying cage" ( Shall it be called a "dying" cage?)
The cause of acute (what is so "a-cute" about it?) death is still unknown, UConn Pathology Lab could not find any explanation, results of toxicology will be available no sooner than in 3-6 week.
For the last 4 years our family was going though the chain of sad, undeserved,untimely events - I don't think I have any faith left anymore.

For all the joy and loyalty - Thank You...
For our failure to protect you, please, forgive...
Rest in Peace Taffy...






Wednesday, October 22, 2008

(DIA) against Machine

It is plainly amazing how any fundamental decisions all in a sudden disappeared from day to day trading process and none, but machines (trading programs) is willing to trade.
This is 15 minutes (DIA) chart for illustration of precise following of DeMark Setups during last few days.


And here is daily (DIA) - is is in the process of forming symmetrical triangle, which usually serves as consolidation pattern, given recent huge drop, better chances, from ,my point of view are for beginning of move up after pattern is completed. It might happen as soon as today midday or tomorrow. (DIA) within this pattern might touch 8550 area.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

(LDK) & Other Solar Stocks

Anyone has a feeling that some of the solar sector stocks beaten down to oblivion are about to become hunted by momentum player again? (Of course they still alive - momentum players that is)
Looks like a nice trade with clear stop closer to $18.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

"Trade secrets revealed"

Over the past few years I've been receiving multiple emails asking me to explain in greater details what kind of technical  analysis I use in order to achieve substantial accuracy on direction and timing of major market turns and spotting trading opportunities in individual stocks.

We all heard "On the left side of the chart it is science, on the right side it is art"

That "right side" for me was always DeMark studies ( over the years I applied my own interpretations and some modifications to DeMark's indicators, but books below served as essential reference to most of my trading)

Book Reviews

Unlike other technical analysis books, DeMark's two volumes on his exclusive indicators give you ready-to-implement formulas, and he discusses the logic behind those ideas. Whereas other authors discuss head-and-shoulders ad nauseam, DeMark gives you new ideas. You can implement his indicators (most of which don't work all the time, unsurprisingly), and can then think of ways to improve them. Of course, in the end, you have to keep in mind that the market is more or less a legalized casino, where only a lucky few can come out ahead in the long run. Luck is probably the most important trading system you'll need.

If you're an experienced trader, you must read this book! If you trade based on any type of Technical Methodology, then this book should be on your book shelf. Granted, it could get complicated for novice traders, but once you've grasped the basics of Technical Analysis, don't hesitate to purchase this classic. Anyone that sees this title in the used section, grab it quick, the price is a true disparity!!

I've been struggling for weeks now to recreate many of Demark's indicators for the Ninjatrader platform in C# - relying soley on the original explanations in Tom Demark's book. There are a lot of very detailed logic rules for these indicators that , if you blink, you'll miss a step in the procedure. Jason Perl's book is exactly what I have been looking for.
He breaks down each indicator in a top down pseudo code step by step format that makes understanding and code translation a breeze. There are also numerous Q & A's that I found extremely insightful.
HIGHLY RECOMMENDED!

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Hedge Fund Founder Retires

Andrew Lahde ran a hedge fund that had returns of 800% last year. He
just quit and published on-line this letter. A look into a mind that
is truly greater than mine.

"Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is
experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing
to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous
letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I
am writing to say goodbye.

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a
hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund),
was quoted as saying, "What I have learned about the hedge fund
business is that I hate it." I could not agree more with that
statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit,
i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the
Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often)
truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly
received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and
Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior
supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to
find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God
bless America.

There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my
success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor
accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the
endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.

I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have
enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have
arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised
that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine;
I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass
nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck.
Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months,
they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which
they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices.
What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway.
Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I
do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten.
Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy
life.

So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not
expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time
frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the
dissolution of the fund. And don't worry about my employees, they were
always employed by Mr. Springer's company and only one (who has been
well-rewarded) will lose his job.

I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to
participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market
right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse
for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines
and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from
the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was
destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years,
as well as my entire life -- where I had to compete for spaces in
universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management --
with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not.
May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be
established.

On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest
proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation
was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years,
which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now
mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the
coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this
legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an
outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas
Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a
dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused
on improving government.

Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems
become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated
that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is
that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come
together to create a new system of government that truly represents
the common man's interest, while at the same time creating rewards
great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in
government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their
interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used
to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft's
near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is
clearly broken.

From Portfolio: Who Got Screwed in the Wall St. Bailout?
Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring
attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won't see it
included in BP's, "Feel good. We are working on sustainable
solutions," television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM's
similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years
for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced
from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is
the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The
original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was
printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II
by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war
was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-
sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in
this country?

Ah, the female. The evil female plant -- marijuana. It gets you high,
it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it
does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this
innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be
alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only
conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which
owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other
additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without
some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is
ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign
energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing
at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European
nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying
attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate
on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people,
let's stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly
become self-sufficient.

With that I say good-bye and good luck.

All the best,

Andrew Lahde

Friday, October 17, 2008

CNBC: "Beeeeest DOW week!!!"

If you don't like rants and like to wave "Star&Stripes full of holes" banner - don't read.
It is just sickening how low of opinion producers of CNBC shows have of Americans.

After DOW losing over 25% since just beginning of October, going up about 8% is a great ... achievement?

How about that in order to recoup losses of 25% - DOW shall go up over 33% just to break even? Just for October?

Why CNBC's women anchors voices have been trembling lately?
Why they swallowing every second word?
Are they having gun pointed to their heads?

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Get ready for sustainable move higher.

Not an insane spikes, not a short lived runup, but long awaited cease of volaility and market coming back to normalcy after complete and utterly insanity of late.

The fact that market was able to move higher today without "pre-expire" Plunge Protection Team actions is a very good news for Bulls.

Climb will start next week from Tech/Biotech ( A.K.A. QQQQ), Semiconductors (SMH), will be followed by MidCap (MDY), SmallCap(IWM), then (SPY), (XLF),(RKH) and finally in 2-3 weeks (OIH), (RTH) and (XHB) will follow.
Once again, no crazy stuff - just a steady move up starting next week.
I am fully invested in UltraLong ETFs as of last week [in order of positions sizes]
(QLD)[50%], (UWM)[25%, (YUG) [15%] and some individual stocks positions (totaling for just 10% of portfolio) - no options due to expected volatility crash on wild scale, that makes me 100% net long, no puts, no shorts, no margin indeed...
All positions obviously slightly underwater [about -12%] - but I fill very comfortable for as long as recent lows are not broken.
DavidDT
P.S. If my point of view will prove to be correct I might even use some margin for the amount of 1/2 profit I will have in my account - IF I'll have it.