Anywhere You Go

There's another Tuesday for the record books. Can we expect any less from OPEX week? By the way guys- I'd be sitting on a bucket with you over there too, but I couldn't find a picture with a girl in it. ;-) Either that, or she already ran for the hills when she saw this rally today. Meanwhile, our scalping novice, Mr. Big is taking a prudent approach and we're proud of you, Big!

First of all, congrats to our TTWrs who have traded this long and protected themselves along the way. Well done traders! You're thinking like the crooks and trading what you see. That's the way the job gets done.  The rest of us just need to be patient and prudent at this point, and above all else.. beeeeeeeeeeeeee careful!

Good trading to one and all tomorrow! Be careful and don’t get your lips ripped off or SOH while the dust settles.  Here’s a song dedicated to our current TTW bears.  :-)  This seems to have been the theme of the EOD conversation. 

 

You Snooze, You Lose?

I'm sure you could have stayed in bed today and not missed too much. In fact, I think we just had a three day weekend and didn't take advantage of it!

But.. things happened today out there in trading world of interest as we'll see on some charts below. We're at a 50/50 proposition here, wave counts notwithstanding. They either continue to drift this up on low volume (bullish) or something tips the boat over. Both the NYA and INDU have made a clear retrace to the .618 Fib mark, so I'm monitoring for any pullback and to what level to see if we get a nice bearish Gartley on those charts. The alternate would be a butterfly pattern should we see a retrace up to .786, followed by a pullback that does not exceed the most recent pivot low. The chart on copper today took it in the pants as did gold, silver and oil. Will copper lead the way in the days ahead, or was this just a reaction to the buck doing a little dance?  Patience, patience, patience TTWrs- the trade will come our way.

Earnings of interest this week include: Tuesday: FAST and INFY before the bell, followed by INTC and YUM post session. Looking ahead to Thursday we have JPM and GOOG, and on Friday will be BAC, C and GE.

A big thanks to everyone who continue to share their charts and thoughts throughout the trading day!  Good trading tomorrow if we have a day that actually moves along. :-)

First Blog BOOK!

It is here, as promised (may be not "when promised" though and not "where promised" – had to be distributed only to Members Site Subs, but … )

 

If you want it – come and get it!  File (PDF) is fairly large – about 80Megs in size

 

TRADING TO WIN BLOG BOOK JANUARY-JUNE 2010

 

 

 

 

Time flies – we went through so much together!

Weekly Sector Report | 07/09/10 (by Leisa)

(Click to make larger)

After two bleak weeks for bulls and fatted salmon for bears, the markets reversed with impunity last week.  Not only were the 24 sectors above positive, but there was nary a negative sector in the 148 subsectors.  As is usual, I prepared a sector report for you.  You may download the PDF here.

I also created for you (from FINVIZ data) the short float change from 06/25/10 to 07/09/10.  It is included in the weekly sector report, and it has a primary sort on highest short interest to lowest by the sectors used by FINVIZ.

To give you some teaser information, here are the top/bottom 10 in short interest by industry:

(Click to make larger)



With quarter end behind us and earnings season upon us, actual v. expected earnings surprises combined with guidance for the balance of the year are likely to be critical to sustaining the current move down or reversing.  We are witnessing an epic bull/bear battle at these lines. I wished I could tell you who was going to win.

I wish you good trading next week.

Not all pain is gain

Last 2 months were a real pain to trade (unless you are a scalper – then you might even enjoyed it) and I feel real good about taking as few and as small of a trades as I can comfortably leave overnight/few days without having to constantly monitor it.

 

I'd like to recall "long natural gas trade is over" speculation from the middle of June.

Based on completed Setup Sell + proximity to 23% Fibonacci + Fibonacci Time Series off recent bottom I advised to take long gains or at least keep long trade on the very short leash…as we know today – that is exactly what had to be done.

For now what I think might happen - /NG (front month) might test 4.10 area with intraday low to slightly under 4 (therefore it will retest PRSGuitar's 133 channel's line.)  It just had bearish price flip, daily is on bar 2 of buy setup and if downside momentum will continue further below of TDST at 4.135 – look down below.

(May be you recall that "long nat gas" was in part contradictory trade based on "all commodity down with rising dollar – except for nat gas which is domestic and most of it goes to other countries…for it right or wrong – trade worked.

this is "alternate" count I like to have in front of me for references – 8 setups stay when 9 might get "camouflaged" – try to change settings from 9/13 to 8/14 for current daily /es chart – looks interesting, huh?

Works every time…almost…

TDSequential Countdown Buy 13 completed on July 2nd, established TDST at 1006 (13 in this case was the lowest bar). 1006 is very close to TDRL for prior Buy Setup (Since bar 8 was the lowest - Bar 8th range from bar 8 low) plus that steep yellow trendline/TD Demand Line held up on closing basis – and we got expected bounce.  (I always keep forgetting that futures counts in most cases are more accurate than those of SPX/SPY)

Looking at Fibonacci Time Series we are in between 21 and 34 and in a lot of cases price ends up flat in between those.

worth noting volatility trailing stop – it has not been violated on closing basis during last 2 up days, I think it will be hit Thursday/Friday and IF price will close under stop – next week will produce some downside.  Also I am watching that close to horizontal yet another yellow trendline, not discounting possibility of up move up to 1080 area.

 

Based on weekly ongoing setup, price can go almost up to 1085 and developing setup will not be affected.

Fork-ology

What we have looks like fork on the fork on the fork…enough – this is where I am getting confused.  Really curious to see what will happen if we touch sub 1000 level – will we bounce first and then accelerate to the downside?  TDSequential Countdown Buy is still in progress (current bar 12), but at the same time new Setup Buy Started which (normally if it goes to at least 4) might signify more downside.  But forks first…

You Can't Make This Up

I hope everyone had a nice holiday away from trading, but we're about to enter a month of more fun and games starting tomorrow morning. Personally, I'm looking for quite a bit of volatility for the remainder of the month and into the mid portion of August, but we'll see what the clowns have in their bag of tricks.

Two items of interest looking ahead- there will be no FOMC this month, and OPEX is on July 16th, so plan accordingly. Just some quick charts, and I also plotted for a Plan B bullish bounce should that unfold tomorrow or the next several days.  Stay nimble and trade safe.  Just as the theme of 2009 was “don’t try to pick a top,” 2010 might very well be a theme of don’t try to pick a bottom.  Good trading to us all this week! 

 

Ready to bounce?

I spent the better portion of the trading day with CNBS on in the background today, listening to them drone on and on about the "death cross." They must have mentioned if a thousand times during the day. The only thing that makes me paranoid here is they were also suddenly technically aware of the head and shoulders in play last July, and we know what happened after that. But for now, and for me at least, this isn't the same thing. Statistics seem to favor bull markets no matter what is going on with the moving averages, and for certain, bounces will occur, but it seems to me if CNBS has to make a huge deal out of this technical marker all day long I don’t smell a bouncing cat, I smell a rat. The late afternoon commentator on there actually tried to spin it into a bullish sign- I kid you not! Anyway, let's make sure we are aware the cross-over is in play, as well as the full spectrum of MA cross unders and other technical markers we stay on top of. Watching the very same cross-overs in multiple global, other index and indicator charts over the last few months helped us all tremendously get short in front of this move down. Does past history guarantee the same results? Of course not. Looking back there are plenty of instances where the DC took place and the tape bounced back up, but what's more important than just the 50/200 cross-under is the complete bearish order of most, if not all shorter term MAs here. I was taught in the simplest of terms: when the MAs are in bearish order, short the bounces. And so it goes for me until that changes on the daily charts. Tell the $SSEC chart the DC doesn't matter. HA! Another thing I was taught was to simply look at the direction of the MAs. Are they pointing up or down? Top left hand side of the chart to lower right, or the other way around? Believe me, this isn't rocket science. Lagging indicator? Yes, but technically important, lagging or not, and further resistance to price advances. Okay- the Death Cross Queen is off her soapbox now, and let's look at some charts, and see where we’re at. We know the shorter term time frames are in the oversold zone on many charts, but not all. We know this could bounce, but our job needs to include figuring out where the bounce ends should it be the real deal, and be ready to take the other side of the trade as best as we can and when we can. By the way traders- you have done a stellar job of not only trading this week, but keeping each other informed and ready to go. You're in the zone for sure. Congratulations to all of you. I'm extremely proud of everyone. I will be away for the weekend and into the first part of next week, so if I don’t get a chance to say it before then: please have a wonderful holiday weekend and stay safe and sane. :-)

Btw: for cycle watchers, I played with the Gann calculator yesterday and came up with this data from that, so that’s one reason I mentioned the July 11-12th time frame earlier as a potential change in trend coming up. Where it says SD it means “Secondary Date,” PD is “Primary Date.” Most of you loonies also know July 11th is a full solar eclipse and new moon as well. Additionally, post bell on the 12th is the kick-off to earnings season with AA out of the gate.

Gann calcs for July 11-12
5/12 pivot - July 11 S/D
6/1 pivot - July 11 S/D
6/21 pivot - July 12 S/D

JoeyN’s chart on XII (thank you, JN)

Gloomy Picture till the end of this week?

In the short lived moment of temporary reanimation of my internet services I am looking at current D-Waves and all I see is red down waves – if any UP waves existed just yesterday – they are gone now. Targets are quite contradictory, ranging from SPY 100 to down to 96.  (If Members recall I speculated that we'll see SPX 1000 "in 2 days" – that was just yesterday and today we are 11 points down around 1030 (1000 area is where two forks meet :)

 

We might be nearing short term bounce (at least) – Thursday afternoon/ Friday morning.