Interesting move on LMRA

Definitely did not expect it to happen right next day after I posted it on Members Site - therefore only had a chance to open 1/2 regular position in (LMRA) ( way overextended on margin now)
For new ideas visit Members Site
* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

New lists

list #1
(NSM) (PGR) (IDTI) (KRNY)

and

list #2
(WEDC) (OHB) (WPTE) (PACT) (ATSI) (SHRP) (ABMD) (LMRA) (ACTI)

Almost forgot, long is list #... and long is the list #...

Since I pressed on time and it does not make much sense to type same things twice, why don't you just visit Members Site and read it there...good night now

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Quick update

(IDIX) added to the current list on the night of Feb 11th keeps moving.
I'm having fun reading YAHOO's message boards - main question there is "WHY?"
It is not relevant, what is - it is up about 12% from trigger price ( and real time email provided as of this point just as a courtesy to members )

(CPSL) added just yesterday ( in this case there was neither "luck" nor "been good") collapsed at about 2PM today, "WHY?" - it does not matter now - it is at a loss of 4% ( according to "4% any time during the day" stop loss rule)

For more ideas visit Members Site of trading to Win Blog

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Is "IT" happening?

Sinsecato from TagBoard found interesting post:
"I found it on CSCO's summary page on Yahoo, entitled "Bears Bare Dull Teeth."
In a way it is similar to the picture in Wall Street Journal with title "The Bear is dead"

Stocks go down on good news
It is cold ( What it is got to do with market? I don't know - it is cold!)

Market has been in a very tight trading range - has to be resolved - and for some reason I have a feeling that today's action is a very beginning of this "resolution" and the road is DOWN.

As I type all my current long positions are getting closed - if I am wrong - I can always re-enter or just find other opportunities.

Still hesitant to open short positions - I am no good in catching tops or bottoms.

Cash IS a KING now

DavidDT

Some "members site" ideas

Long: (EGOV) (SCLN) (MZT) (XRTX)

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Interesting emails I'm getting lately....

Question
"What was your motive when you closed your January 18th long TWW (triggered on January 25th ). You only made 7.5% when you could just hold on into that stock and as of today your profit would be over 17% in 3 more days?"

Answer:
TWW - bought at 7.36 on Jan 25th, sold on Feb 2nd to protect about 2/3 of profit made.
Lets assume I would hold, then on Feb 6th when in the very morning it touched 7.35 which is already at a loss to fill price of 7.36 - I don't think I would be brave enough to hold on at even money, I would probably ( most likely ) sell to brake even AND would be VERY upset to see it skyrocketing right after I sell two days in a row.
Beside, it could do "CVTX" ( Jan 17th long idea, bought Jan 23rd, sold with -6% loss and after that CVTX proceeded down to -11% loss as of today)

Indeed, I shall agree that only 1 out of 4 "breakout" stocks will move non-stop to higher grounds and 2 out of 4 will descend to pivot point (I call it trigger price for some reason )
But let me ask - what about 1 out of 4 which will just continue to fall until it is too late to sell?

The truth is - there is no universal answer to "when to sell" question.
As long as money is made and losses contained - I am happy...
(one more thing - the real winners never look back after they take off)
DavidDT

P.S. Stocks discussed in this post were profiled on Members Site.

Recently "triggered" stocks

Below are stocks profiled on Members Site from Jan 21st to Jan 29th - all long
(they hit "trigger"/purchase price)

date profiled     symbol   % gain/loss off "trigger price"
22-JAN-2007      (TWLL)             +3
24-JAN-2007      (BLDR)            +4.18
24-JAN-2007      (SPAR)            +3.6
29-JAN-2007      (TKO)            +12.65
29-JAN-2007      (CDL)             +2.54

4 positions have been closed with average loss of -2%

Major embarrassment - (SGMO) long position opened on Jan 23rd was closed prematurely due to "closing below trigger price on day one" AND -
( "coulda-woulda-shoulda" ) would I have more trust in the "system" (there is NO system, just "systematic work") it would be at 20% as of today.

I think I have been overly cautious lately, hope market will breakout of that narrow trading range soon ( one way or another - indecision is hard to "swallow" )

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

(TKO) or "What do we know"

Nuisance trade in (TKO) long on January 30th, which failed breakout and got stuck on my account due to "TREO 650 sudden death syndrome", turned around and posted 6.5% gain off the trigger price ( total move today as of close = +9.9% ( was as high as about 12%).
Interestingly enough during the period from Jan 30th till today (TKO) only once touched "stop price" of $3.11 ( never went below ).

Flexibility...sometimes pays off ( sometimes it does not - but this is what differ traders from ... hmm.. "investors"? :-)

P.S. (TKO) was profiled on Members Site night of January 29th

They Shoot Horses, Don't They?

Very delicate subject indeed...
You did you home work, you identified a "pivot point" on the chart, you went through the balance sheet, you researched potential revenue based on products/services offered by the company, sector is hot - everything is in your favor ( speaking of long, for short - it'd be quite the same just more difficult and in reverse) and yada-yada-yada.

So, you pull the trigger and buy XYZ1, XYZ2 and XYZ3
2 weeks later
XYZ1 is up 15%, XYZ2 is flat and XYZ3 is -7%

You make executive decision to sell your XYZ3 looser (This site is not for bagholders - YES - feel deep disrespect for such), to take profits on your XYZ1 winner ( could be justifiable) AND keep your laggard, namely XYZ2 a little longer - give it the benefits of the doubt).

You are happy - you just made 2.65% on portfolio

So you replace XYZ1 with XYZ4 and XYZ3 with XYZ5 and you wait another 2 weeks.
After end of another 2 weeks XYZ4 is up 8% XYZ2 is still flat and XYZ5 is up 4%
At this point of time you begin to pay more attention to XYZ2, cheering it like a horse on a race, you say: "Come on baby, everyone is doing soooo good, wake up now..."

You stop paying attention to XYZ4 and XYZ5 and few days later they drift to negative territory, but that is fine with you - you are still up for a month.

Then you wake up in the morning, and finally XYZ2 IS MOVING, just not where you wanted it to.. it is down 40% on ...whatever news it might be ( but trust me - everything else given and stock is not moving in the direction expected 70% of the time that news WILL BE BAD)

What happened? You thought you are smarter than a market ( millions of other players),
you thought that market will discover how smart you are and your stock will go up big sooner or later.
In reality - there was a good reason for XYZ2 to lag in spite of all the good looking results of your home work - someone KNEW the truth about what will happen to the company's stock - and, believe you me, it was not pretty.
So, you wiped all profits, you are sitting on losses because of your ego ("how come I am wrong about potential of this company and stock), but from now on - it will get worse.
You will be keeping XYZ2 ( not a laggard anymore, but -40% overnight loss which you truly were not able to sell, since it gapped down right on the market open),
so you are keeping your looser, because "it is too late to sell" ( no such thing - sell it and forget it - you already lost!), guess what - it gets even worse from here - you are so terrified to see XYZ2 go down another 2%, then another 3% that you completely stopped to pay any attention to other positions and red color is all over your portfolio.

Am I making it up? If it is more convenient for you to think so, then think so.
But the truth is - if stock lags when peers outperform there are only 2 possible outcomes
1. ( best case scenario) - laggard will bring your portfolio's return below where it could be
or
2. (not so pretty) - laggard sooner or later will wipe out all your profits, demoralize you and as a result sooner or later you will go to the poor house

SELL LAGGARDS

Happy trading!

P.S. Almost forgot to tell you - SELL LAGGARDS

Really short post

There is nothing much to say - major top is still in a process of forming
Few long ideas added on Members Site

(LMNX) (IMOS) (CRYP) (HEES)

and (ZOLT) - very questionable, but interesting...

GUARD YOUR PROFITS!

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *