Today's list was one of the most time consuming for the last 6 months and in spite of preaching on a subject of patience I gave up - too many run away overextended stocks, but this is what you get in run away bull market, so I decided to start from most heavily shorted, closest to 52wh issues, warning - now MORE then ever you want to make sure that you will be at the profit at the DAY ONE, don't say: "there is going to be tomorrow", so watch for reasonable entry points ( most of them are really "unreasonable" any way you slice it )
WAIT for PPI to come out, don't trade premarket, let PPI to sink in.
I did not have time to check earnings dates - PLEASE do so!
Unless company is fundamentally solid - don't do earning play, it requires KNOWLEDGE of the company, LOOK EARNINGS UP, PLEASE!
EARNINGS CALENDAR for your convenience
Most stocks on this list are thinly traded - use limit order, don't chase!
All long:
1. these are stocks with the high short interest
TRLG ( if volume will be strong from the very morning )
IIG(if it'll start moving closer to 16)
MNKD (careful with this one)
AIQ ( my past favorite since Sep 6th - made a bundle )
FALC(SMSI for alt play)
SGK ( today was 5x volume with only 0.3% drop - why? something is cooking? otherwise - this is a laggard)
CYPB(!)
LMIA
KFI
"just longs" :)
2. REDF ( is Cramer curse over? not my favorite, but someone might like it :) ) CHDX(?)
SGEN ( slightly further from the base, but as I said - beggers cannot be choosy, is it bull market so far)
DPM
KEYN(unusual volume last 2 days, fundamentally is not the best one, careful) URGI ( close to 52wk, strong volume last few days )
Monday, October 16, 2006
Saturday, October 14, 2006
For today's post
Please, visit
Trade Guild blog post as of October 14th " And now for something completely different..."
Trade Guild blog post as of October 14th " And now for something completely different..."
Thursday, October 12, 2006
Rotation, rotation, rotation...
Nice green day on the market, mostly anyone who knows popular stocks could make money today - that troubles me some.
Would you care to ask - why? OK, today is 12th - so what you ask, tomorrow is 13th - you think I'm nuts and cannot get to the point because there is no point - wrong you are. Tomorrow is a big 401K inflow day, but at the same time it is Friday, it has been quite good week so far, so I think what was happening today is that money managers started to rotate money out of few well performing sectors, such as health care providers (which is starting to get hammered lately and I see some nasty MACD divergence on XLV ), Big Pharma and "too good to be true" overachieving other stocks and put money into well known names "safer names", not necessary just tech names - just well known names and they used some of cash reserves they had in portfolios, so what I'm saying - whatever had to happen tomorrow - happened today, purchases meant to be made tomorrow were made today. If it holds water, then we are going to see a pop in the morning and then choice of stagnant trading throughout the day or selloff after noon. Don't forget Wall Street mentality - it is still October.
As game plan for tomorrow - biotech has pulled down some, tomorrow it'll most likely go down so more in the morning at least- I'd use it to add/open positions in biotech cos recomended on this blog and on Trade Guild blog for the last 2 weeks.
If you hold "fancy" retail stocks - I'd start to ease up on those, take at least partual profit
I think next substantial move will be in nanotech stocks, some were up lately, take a look at PXN I'd say it is C&H
Gold/commodities stocks criping higher - I would not be a buyer yet, but I think this might change somewhere from 1 day to 1 week - be alert.
Here is a bad(for consumer) / good (for invested in oil) news - I think it is about to reverse and go up, so keep an eye on OIH and USO ETFs and oil related stocks - a lot of oversold goodies there - just throw a dart.
No new lists today stick with the winner from last 2 weeks ( remember that if I'm not in particular stock - I rarely monitor it for longer then 1-2 weeks )
Would you care to ask - why? OK, today is 12th - so what you ask, tomorrow is 13th - you think I'm nuts and cannot get to the point because there is no point - wrong you are. Tomorrow is a big 401K inflow day, but at the same time it is Friday, it has been quite good week so far, so I think what was happening today is that money managers started to rotate money out of few well performing sectors, such as health care providers (which is starting to get hammered lately and I see some nasty MACD divergence on XLV ), Big Pharma and "too good to be true" overachieving other stocks and put money into well known names "safer names", not necessary just tech names - just well known names and they used some of cash reserves they had in portfolios, so what I'm saying - whatever had to happen tomorrow - happened today, purchases meant to be made tomorrow were made today. If it holds water, then we are going to see a pop in the morning and then choice of stagnant trading throughout the day or selloff after noon. Don't forget Wall Street mentality - it is still October.
As game plan for tomorrow - biotech has pulled down some, tomorrow it'll most likely go down so more in the morning at least- I'd use it to add/open positions in biotech cos recomended on this blog and on Trade Guild blog for the last 2 weeks.
If you hold "fancy" retail stocks - I'd start to ease up on those, take at least partual profit
I think next substantial move will be in nanotech stocks, some were up lately, take a look at PXN I'd say it is C&H
Gold/commodities stocks criping higher - I would not be a buyer yet, but I think this might change somewhere from 1 day to 1 week - be alert.
Here is a bad(for consumer) / good (for invested in oil) news - I think it is about to reverse and go up, so keep an eye on OIH and USO ETFs and oil related stocks - a lot of oversold goodies there - just throw a dart.
No new lists today stick with the winner from last 2 weeks ( remember that if I'm not in particular stock - I rarely monitor it for longer then 1-2 weeks )
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
YAHOO MB "short noise" is down...is it?
It is this scary time of the year and none scared? No selloffs? No panic?
I cannot find any decently looking short setups ( Surprise-surprise-NOT - I am a bad short after all)
Today was not a "distribution day" - just a reality check? but somehow it did not feel quite right, sudden spikes in volume, ups, downs, searching for direction? Looking for excuse to sell? Idea of not so great economy is gradually sinking into excited traders' minds? High flyer SYX down 30% AH?
We'll stay in check, for now I thought I'll just post new long watch list, but first few short candidates
Short: GPRO RMD
Long: ICOC LPSN KBALB HTRN GAP LUB OO VRGY CERS GCA OSTE AMRN BUF ATRM RMKR
and last, but not least RNAI ( which I bought ) - courtesy of CHELOBES from Trade Guild's TagBoard
I cannot find any decently looking short setups ( Surprise-surprise-NOT - I am a bad short after all)
Today was not a "distribution day" - just a reality check? but somehow it did not feel quite right, sudden spikes in volume, ups, downs, searching for direction? Looking for excuse to sell? Idea of not so great economy is gradually sinking into excited traders' minds? High flyer SYX down 30% AH?
We'll stay in check, for now I thought I'll just post new long watch list, but first few short candidates
Short: GPRO RMD
Long: ICOC LPSN KBALB HTRN GAP LUB OO VRGY CERS GCA OSTE AMRN BUF ATRM RMKR
and last, but not least RNAI ( which I bought ) - courtesy of CHELOBES from Trade Guild's TagBoard
Monday, October 02, 2006
Fall in New England
It is upon us - the most gorgeous ( and in my humble opinion - the only ) season in New England. Took my laptop to the deck pointing to the untouched woods, meditated for few minutes? hours? Well suffice to say that very nice Dominican Davidoff cigar ended its existence while I was "meditating" - so, I guess I was there for a good hour... OK enough already, lets start October on a profitable note
long: PPD ACMR EPIC ILSE TG IMGN OSTE ESPD(NO CHASING) KBALB PCTI ( GCA CERS SOLD DMC SBSA IONA PFWD JRTPWAV KFI)
SHORT: SMOD NRMX WIRE CTCI ( ICGE AEOS HPOL CLDN AEIS TTEC )
note: GS starting to look like a potential short
long: PPD ACMR EPIC ILSE TG IMGN OSTE ESPD(NO CHASING) KBALB PCTI ( GCA CERS SOLD DMC SBSA IONA PFWD JRT
SHORT: SMOD NRMX WIRE CTCI ( ICGE AEOS HPOL CLDN AEIS TTEC )
note: GS starting to look like a potential short
Sunday, October 01, 2006
Long overdue article A.K.A. "My trading style"
[this article applicable to bull/stagnant market - bear market calls for entirely different approach]
The idea behind this blog was not so much to gain popularity ( I did not expect to discover that somehow, without me advertising this blog people started to visit this blog, ask questions, criticize, use ideas), but to have an organized "journal" of "when, what, why" kind of.
But, like they say: "If you build it, they will come".
Now it is a really good time to explain my trading style in greater details.
First and foremost "Set of Trading Rules" is a cornerstone for disciplined trader ( especially the one who wants to be making money, not just trading for adrenaline rush).
Here is how I use my own ideas:
When I make a selection, mostly night before ( I don't do day trading, I do all research after the market close), sometimes - once a week, I'm not necessary rushing in the very next day and buy/short out of prior night's selection - I BEGIN TO WATCH candidates listed - I do not expect my picks to skyrocket or fall right away, as a matter of fact - I try to STAY away from stocks someone might expect to skyrocket during the short period of time, I dim that kind of trading hazardous for people who are not watching screen 24/7 - and I DON'T sit in front of monitor all the day long ( may be once or twice bi-weekly).
Sometimes, if I am in the mood to watch market open and I see that currently listed ideas begin strong intraday move in direction expected (or not) - I MIGHT jump in, but then I feel "obligated" to continue to watch such "surprise" move very closely and if I get 5-10% in 1 day - I mostly will CLOSE that position and look for pullback to re-enter. That was the case with LEA, profiled on the morning of Sep 21st, I shorted it in the morning, covered next morning, since there was no continuation of the move and I tend to think when there is no such that prior day's move was an overreaction/temporary/reversal prone move.
UPDATED on October 28th
Speaking of LEA and mentionned above "overreaction/temporary/reversal prone move" it proved to be just the case - LEA reversed and added 70% in 4 weeks. This is a very good illustration that not only you have to be flexible, but you have to always monitor ALL stocks you follow on a daily basis in order to capitalize on reversals, which in many cases are "fast and furious". I broke this rule - and only made 10% on downside and missed ROCKET move UP of 70% in 4 weeks.
END OF UPDATE
Next, "how long I wait for expected move for "candidate" trades.
Mostly somewhere from 1 to 2 weeks at most ( If not much changed in "Why I selected those stocks" ). If move continues ( even at a slow pace ) in the direction expected and I have position I continue to monitor the stock to ensure that the "reason" is still there, if I think the "reason" begin to change or no longer there - I close position EVEN if direction does not change - I know that I will never get out at exact "turning point" and I'd rather keep $5 and watch "un-made profits" go to $10 then been able to make $5 and forced to get out of position with a loss of $3, you getting the point.
"Stay with the winners" - I think the only way it is possible is when entire sector for stock I have position in continues to move in direction of my trade, when sector changes its pace - even if my position continues to go into profitable direction - I watch for an exit - if entire sector weak - almost no stocks will be able to continue insulated move contrarian to the sector direction.
Now it is time to talk about "8% loss rule" - it is a must to obey, but... as traders gaining experience, sometimes it pays to go with "the gut feeling" and distinguish between 8% drop which WILL continue and "shake off" and following reversal into direction expected. How can one tell? There is almost no way to say when it is and when it is not. Very sad... Well, in my experience, most of the stock poised for substantial move attract a lot of institutional buying - and "they" LOVE to get it at cheaper price - this is their extra margin - who would mind? This is why I, myself wait until I see such "shake off".
Trailing stops - I hate those - specialists on the floor - LOVE them, so I don't use trailing stops in most cases.
That is it for today - might be continued.
The idea behind this blog was not so much to gain popularity ( I did not expect to discover that somehow, without me advertising this blog people started to visit this blog, ask questions, criticize, use ideas), but to have an organized "journal" of "when, what, why" kind of.
But, like they say: "If you build it, they will come".
Now it is a really good time to explain my trading style in greater details.
First and foremost "Set of Trading Rules" is a cornerstone for disciplined trader ( especially the one who wants to be making money, not just trading for adrenaline rush).
Here is how I use my own ideas:
When I make a selection, mostly night before ( I don't do day trading, I do all research after the market close), sometimes - once a week, I'm not necessary rushing in the very next day and buy/short out of prior night's selection - I BEGIN TO WATCH candidates listed - I do not expect my picks to skyrocket or fall right away, as a matter of fact - I try to STAY away from stocks someone might expect to skyrocket during the short period of time, I dim that kind of trading hazardous for people who are not watching screen 24/7 - and I DON'T sit in front of monitor all the day long ( may be once or twice bi-weekly).
Sometimes, if I am in the mood to watch market open and I see that currently listed ideas begin strong intraday move in direction expected (or not) - I MIGHT jump in, but then I feel "obligated" to continue to watch such "surprise" move very closely and if I get 5-10% in 1 day - I mostly will CLOSE that position and look for pullback to re-enter. That was the case with LEA, profiled on the morning of Sep 21st, I shorted it in the morning, covered next morning, since there was no continuation of the move and I tend to think when there is no such that prior day's move was an overreaction/temporary/reversal prone move.
UPDATED on October 28th
Speaking of LEA and mentionned above "overreaction/temporary/reversal prone move" it proved to be just the case - LEA reversed and added 70% in 4 weeks. This is a very good illustration that not only you have to be flexible, but you have to always monitor ALL stocks you follow on a daily basis in order to capitalize on reversals, which in many cases are "fast and furious". I broke this rule - and only made 10% on downside and missed ROCKET move UP of 70% in 4 weeks.
END OF UPDATE
Next, "how long I wait for expected move for "candidate" trades.
Mostly somewhere from 1 to 2 weeks at most ( If not much changed in "Why I selected those stocks" ). If move continues ( even at a slow pace ) in the direction expected and I have position I continue to monitor the stock to ensure that the "reason" is still there, if I think the "reason" begin to change or no longer there - I close position EVEN if direction does not change - I know that I will never get out at exact "turning point" and I'd rather keep $5 and watch "un-made profits" go to $10 then been able to make $5 and forced to get out of position with a loss of $3, you getting the point.
"Stay with the winners" - I think the only way it is possible is when entire sector for stock I have position in continues to move in direction of my trade, when sector changes its pace - even if my position continues to go into profitable direction - I watch for an exit - if entire sector weak - almost no stocks will be able to continue insulated move contrarian to the sector direction.
Now it is time to talk about "8% loss rule" - it is a must to obey, but... as traders gaining experience, sometimes it pays to go with "the gut feeling" and distinguish between 8% drop which WILL continue and "shake off" and following reversal into direction expected. How can one tell? There is almost no way to say when it is and when it is not. Very sad... Well, in my experience, most of the stock poised for substantial move attract a lot of institutional buying - and "they" LOVE to get it at cheaper price - this is their extra margin - who would mind? This is why I, myself wait until I see such "shake off".
Trailing stops - I hate those - specialists on the floor - LOVE them, so I don't use trailing stops in most cases.
That is it for today - might be continued.
Thursday, September 28, 2006
Possible short squeeze alert
NASDAQ short interest numbers just came out and
SUF
now has about "26 days to cover" - if this puppy moves up - it'll be "fast and furious"
SUF
now has about "26 days to cover" - if this puppy moves up - it'll be "fast and furious"
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Windows dressing is almost over
and with it short covering which is helping to propel markets to new highs will be gone too. All or most of latest short ideas are still short - just at the better entry prices.
Here what I think might be most promising trades:
shorts:
TEX - right where it is - if higher - even better
SHLD - same
RATE - somewhere at 27-28 depending on how it'll go ( don't worry about high short interest - none is going to cover anytime soon :) )
long:
COLY 11.20 - 11.40 stop 11.08
ILSE 19.30 - 19.60 stop 19.05
SFUN 28.55 - 29.10 stop 28.09
Commenting on PCTI action today - at the time when it was shaken down SemiHolders sold off quite hard, still long at 10.30-10.50 with stop at 10.11
"I make rules - I brake rules" - here what I traded/trade ( As I explained before - I dislike to open my cards in order not to affect anyones decisions )
SLXA profiled on Sep 20th, pick of BullTrapper of Trade Guild investment blog, put up quite a performance lately, bounced off $8 area - nice going BullTrapper!
I picked it up on Sep 22nd at 7.90 ( as I say in my trading rules - I don't chase stocks - "Money not made better then money lost") and closed today at 8.66 missing extra .30 pop - did so due to anticipation of coming market selloff, I'm about 70% short now
RIO short, pick of BullTrapper of Trade Guild investment blog opened short position at 21.06, with soft stop right above 22
APOG - closed position on pop at 15.94, might re-enter long pos. at 15.35 +/-
VRTX - covered, institutional defence is not done pumping this one
GRMN - quite a pop, good short opp., if tomorrow morning goes up - 48.50-49 would a perfect entry for short position, with stop at about 50.28
SUF looks like it is recovering - this is high risk/high reward long trade.
NXG - went up with minning stocks, I think GLD will continue go up for few days at least.
others candidates of interest:
long BUF DUSA GAP IMGN JRT PFWD
short: CCU RS TIE SNX ZOLT and last, but not least - FMCN looks like this time it IS breaking down
Here what I think might be most promising trades:
shorts:
TEX - right where it is - if higher - even better
SHLD - same
RATE - somewhere at 27-28 depending on how it'll go ( don't worry about high short interest - none is going to cover anytime soon :) )
long:
COLY 11.20 - 11.40 stop 11.08
ILSE 19.30 - 19.60 stop 19.05
SFUN 28.55 - 29.10 stop 28.09
Commenting on PCTI action today - at the time when it was shaken down SemiHolders sold off quite hard, still long at 10.30-10.50 with stop at 10.11
"I make rules - I brake rules" - here what I traded/trade ( As I explained before - I dislike to open my cards in order not to affect anyones decisions )
SLXA profiled on Sep 20th, pick of BullTrapper of Trade Guild investment blog, put up quite a performance lately, bounced off $8 area - nice going BullTrapper!
I picked it up on Sep 22nd at 7.90 ( as I say in my trading rules - I don't chase stocks - "Money not made better then money lost") and closed today at 8.66 missing extra .30 pop - did so due to anticipation of coming market selloff, I'm about 70% short now
RIO short, pick of BullTrapper of Trade Guild investment blog opened short position at 21.06, with soft stop right above 22
APOG - closed position on pop at 15.94, might re-enter long pos. at 15.35 +/-
VRTX - covered, institutional defence is not done pumping this one
GRMN - quite a pop, good short opp., if tomorrow morning goes up - 48.50-49 would a perfect entry for short position, with stop at about 50.28
SUF looks like it is recovering - this is high risk/high reward long trade.
NXG - went up with minning stocks, I think GLD will continue go up for few days at least.
others candidates of interest:
long BUF DUSA GAP IMGN JRT PFWD
short: CCU RS TIE SNX ZOLT and last, but not least - FMCN looks like this time it IS breaking down
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Monday, September 25, 2006
Got it all wrong for the market
got it quite OK for picks. Tired, stubborn in believing that "controlled inflation at the cost of recession" should not move Mr. Market higher - so, let say quarterly window dressing started earlier, let me see - will it end on Wednesday instead of Friday? Could be - stay alert, keep your long profits.
Lists ( I try to list tickers in "expectaion" order )
Long: SFUN STEL PFWD LUB GAP JRT ILSE ( ? DUSA GTI IMGN ?)
Short: GRMN RMD RATENUE TIE RS OMX SNX
Lists ( I try to list tickers in "expectaion" order )
Long: SFUN STEL PFWD LUB GAP JRT ILSE ( ? DUSA GTI IMGN ?)
Short: GRMN RMD RATE
