Hmm...
Iran "taking over the World" does not push oil higher for any meaningful amount and move fails.
Bullish Crude/Gasoline Inventory report does not push oil higher for any meaningful amount and move fails.
Does it make you want to go long oil or (USO)? If it does - good luck and ... you are on your own...
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Many ways to scan a cat...
When different traders come to the the same conclusion using different methods - it might well deserve some attention.
My friend Brandt from TRADE GUILD just posted The Case For a Bounce with multiple charts based on his very own 3c indicator. Silly me - looking at the charts while vacationing - I'd like to reinforce his point of view using "my indicators".
I think SPY, DIA, XLF are about to bounce and since IWM and QQQQ only show "bounce signals" on a daily chart - I believe that "bounce" will be attributed mostly to financials.
Just to prove the point I'm posting charts of inverse ETFs as well ( as Brandt did ) and as you probably figured out already, since those are inverse - and red bars are sell signals - for "regular ETFs" that implies BUY-BUY-BUY
My friend Brandt from TRADE GUILD just posted The Case For a Bounce with multiple charts based on his very own 3c indicator. Silly me - looking at the charts while vacationing - I'd like to reinforce his point of view using "my indicators".
I think SPY, DIA, XLF are about to bounce and since IWM and QQQQ only show "bounce signals" on a daily chart - I believe that "bounce" will be attributed mostly to financials.
Just to prove the point I'm posting charts of inverse ETFs as well ( as Brandt did ) and as you probably figured out already, since those are inverse - and red bars are sell signals - for "regular ETFs" that implies BUY-BUY-BUY
Monday, July 07, 2008
Bye-bye Fast Money A.K.A. Market Bottom?
Is not it amazing how repeatable history is?
Back in the midst of 2000-2002 bear market Larry and Jimmy suddenly disappeared from TV into the thin air, now CNBC takes 8PM Fast Money show off air all in a sudden?
Go away in peace - you will NOT be missed and take the Bear with you ( also, PLEASE, take off the air extremely bullish as of June 5th Peter Costa trader - his "expert" opinion just a waste of bandwidths, Dennis Kneale who is right twice a day just like a broken watches and a lot of other REALLY-REALLY annoying and not-so-helpful so called experts )
Or, may be, just may be, leave them ON and glue a Post-It with "FADE" written on it to their foreheads.
Back in the midst of 2000-2002 bear market Larry and Jimmy suddenly disappeared from TV into the thin air, now CNBC takes 8PM Fast Money show off air all in a sudden?
Go away in peace - you will NOT be missed and take the Bear with you ( also, PLEASE, take off the air extremely bullish as of June 5th Peter Costa trader - his "expert" opinion just a waste of bandwidths, Dennis Kneale who is right twice a day just like a broken watches and a lot of other REALLY-REALLY annoying and not-so-helpful so called experts )
Or, may be, just may be, leave them ON and glue a Post-It with "FADE" written on it to their foreheads.
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Strategic Petroleum Reserve HOAX
Just woke up in the airplane seat [ vacation!!!! ] in cold sweat - I had a dream that I am LONG OIL and it is Monday and Great American Government and FED decided to be consistent with the full loss of control and do one more dumb thing - RELEASE some symbolic number of not really needed to anyone [ there is no shortage, don't be an idiot, yes, I am talking to YOU ] barrels of OIL. OMG - I just lost ALL MY MONEY!!!!
Then I woke up - thanks God it is still crazy for other people Thursday July 3rd 2008 and I have no position in oil or any of oil related "garbaaaage" [with French accent]
Then I woke up - thanks God it is still crazy for other people Thursday July 3rd 2008 and I have no position in oil or any of oil related "garbaaaage" [with French accent]
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Faces to remember
Now that
materialized just 1 short week after appearing on this not so fine financial blog, I thought that before I go on vacation I will offer you few photographs of "people to remember and watch out during THE NEXT BIG THING".
PEOPLE WHO SAY
"THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT"
Ken Heebner CGM Focus fund
Jim Cramer
Larry Kudlow
Fast Team for your Fast Gone Money
GUY ADAMI
PETE NAJARIAN A.K.A. "Coal IS A REAL STORY"
KAREN FINERMAN A.K.A. "C is a VALUE Girl"
JEFF MACKE - well, you DO have to listen to him and realistic folks from
minyanville.com
And I would like to express my deepest condolences to Jeff - his father passed away last week.
I can go on and post thousands of pictures of people who are
getting paid NOT based on how much money they made for YOU
but.. you get the point - stop watching/listening/hoping
THINK
LEARN
READ
[pictures from CNBC, Wikipedia, Forbes]
"Doorman Syndrome" #N
materialized just 1 short week after appearing on this not so fine financial blog, I thought that before I go on vacation I will offer you few photographs of "people to remember and watch out during THE NEXT BIG THING".
PEOPLE WHO SAY
"THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT"
Ken Heebner CGM Focus fund
Jim Cramer
Larry Kudlow
Fast Team for your Fast Gone Money
GUY ADAMI
PETE NAJARIAN A.K.A. "Coal IS A REAL STORY"
KAREN FINERMAN A.K.A. "C is a VALUE Girl"
JEFF MACKE - well, you DO have to listen to him and realistic folks from
minyanville.com
And I would like to express my deepest condolences to Jeff - his father passed away last week.
I can go on and post thousands of pictures of people who are
getting paid NOT based on how much money they made for YOU
but.. you get the point - stop watching/listening/hoping
THINK
LEARN
READ
[pictures from CNBC, Wikipedia, Forbes]
Oh my... or prelude to a market bottom...
Below is an extract from IM conversation which took place yesterday night with my trading buddy
Quoted:
=========================================
"DavidDT (7/1/2008 10:17:27 PM): the more I think about today, the more I browse financial sites, the more uncomfortable I became with the whole notion of "establishing the bottom" today. too many cheering, downtrending channel continues, SPY still closed outside of acc channel ( by a notch, but still) - I think "someone" is going to get whacked tomorrow
DavidDT (7/1/2008 11:16:28 PM): Also, as I look not at the volume, but dollar weighted volume - today's volume is 60-70% of prior reversals volume [- not good enough for reversal]
============================================
And guess what? I totally ignored my own analysis and stayed long QQQQ calls and added a lot of XLF calls. NO. IT. DOES. NOT. FEEL. GOOD. AT. ALL.
That been said...I think tomorrow $VIX will spike on open ( Jobs report, Triches ECB action - I don't care...) Selloff will follow ... and that will signify short term bottom.
Plus, looking at after hours QQQQ action attributed to NVDA fiasco ( surprise, surprise - is it?), last price is somewhere at $44.50 and that price fits perfectly into symmetrical triangle from New Year up until now, plus QQQQ is sitting on volume support...
In short... if QQQQ will hold $44+ tomorrow, we'll see that "second week of July rally" I was expecting.
Not to overlook that today's action in oil with vicious short covering in the last 10 minutes due to 6% margin requirement been raised looks really "toppy" to me...
( reminder: Morgan Stanley said: " Oil will be $150 by July 4th" - read: "get the hell out before 4th of July")
IF, which I think, is HIGHLY unlikely, QQQQ will break $44 area on downside...oh well...let's think positive...I am not even looking at market tomorrow, low volume, high volatility, I had enough of that for this week - will get "the news" on Monday.
Happy 4th of July ( kind of lost some significance due to " a lot of taxation and no representation" recently )
Don't keep your eyes in the line of firing of fireworks - well, if you are grown up and dumb enough to do that - then...good luck.
P.S. I am taking long overdue vacation, regular posts will resume in few weeks.
Quoted:
=========================================
"DavidDT (7/1/2008 10:17:27 PM): the more I think about today, the more I browse financial sites, the more uncomfortable I became with the whole notion of "establishing the bottom" today. too many cheering, downtrending channel continues, SPY still closed outside of acc channel ( by a notch, but still) - I think "someone" is going to get whacked tomorrow
DavidDT (7/1/2008 11:16:28 PM): Also, as I look not at the volume, but dollar weighted volume - today's volume is 60-70% of prior reversals volume [- not good enough for reversal]
============================================
And guess what? I totally ignored my own analysis and stayed long QQQQ calls and added a lot of XLF calls. NO. IT. DOES. NOT. FEEL. GOOD. AT. ALL.
That been said...I think tomorrow $VIX will spike on open ( Jobs report, Triches ECB action - I don't care...) Selloff will follow ... and that will signify short term bottom.
Plus, looking at after hours QQQQ action attributed to NVDA fiasco ( surprise, surprise - is it?), last price is somewhere at $44.50 and that price fits perfectly into symmetrical triangle from New Year up until now, plus QQQQ is sitting on volume support...
In short... if QQQQ will hold $44+ tomorrow, we'll see that "second week of July rally" I was expecting.
Not to overlook that today's action in oil with vicious short covering in the last 10 minutes due to 6% margin requirement been raised looks really "toppy" to me...
( reminder: Morgan Stanley said: " Oil will be $150 by July 4th" - read: "get the hell out before 4th of July")
IF, which I think, is HIGHLY unlikely, QQQQ will break $44 area on downside...oh well...let's think positive...I am not even looking at market tomorrow, low volume, high volatility, I had enough of that for this week - will get "the news" on Monday.
Happy 4th of July ( kind of lost some significance due to " a lot of taxation and no representation" recently )
Don't keep your eyes in the line of firing of fireworks - well, if you are grown up and dumb enough to do that - then...good luck.
P.S. I am taking long overdue vacation, regular posts will resume in few weeks.
Is that what it is?
Could not be a good idea to waste bandwidth of investment site by posting Music Videos, but I think thas is what a lot of swing/position and even day traders were thinking yesterday during wild swings.
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Metals and laggards
Was not going to do yet another post tonight ( that is the 3rd one - I definitely overworked and underpaid :), but while glancing over the charts spotted something that might prove to be an interesting long ideas - some laggards among burning hot metallurgic sector.
Alcoa (AA)
- underperformed ( not knowing "funny-mental" things about company, my best guess would be due to HUGE electricity costs needed for aluminum production ).
Today's low bounced off long term priceline - could that be a beginning of leg up?
China Precision Steel, Inc. (CPSL)
Same story here - off the long term priceline
Titanium Metals Corp. (TIE)
(Holding long calls at the time of writing )
Down with BOEING ( and the rest af "Aero") - could that be that no more bad news left?
Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD)
Do you see what I see? Ugly Cup&Handle? ( I am not a big fan of C&H, but at least stop is clearly defined on this chart - just like on first 3 charts - that is the way I like it)
Alcoa (AA)
- underperformed ( not knowing "funny-mental" things about company, my best guess would be due to HUGE electricity costs needed for aluminum production ).
Today's low bounced off long term priceline - could that be a beginning of leg up?
China Precision Steel, Inc. (CPSL)
Same story here - off the long term priceline
Titanium Metals Corp. (TIE)
(Holding long calls at the time of writing )
Down with BOEING ( and the rest af "Aero") - could that be that no more bad news left?
Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD)
Do you see what I see? Ugly Cup&Handle? ( I am not a big fan of C&H, but at least stop is clearly defined on this chart - just like on first 3 charts - that is the way I like it)
Exhausted...and like "solars" once again
What a day, what a day... the one I've been waiting for in context of "upcoming rally during severe bear market".
It felt really bad to be holding long calls on (XLF), (XHB), (QQQQ) in the morning, but the feeling of despair in the air was so strong that I did something I don't do very often - in spite of the fact that "I have completed long calls on (XLF), (XHB), (QQQQ) (per yesterday's post ) I closed my eyes ( not the way to deal with the stock market indeed) and raised (XLF) and (QQQQ) calls position ANOTHER 50% - oy vey...somehow that just happened at almost at the low of the day at about lunch time.
The next thing I know - market uses "better than expected horrible news" of GM's heavily "given away" numbers and what do you know - market rallies!
Have to confess - I've been a pig and did not sell any of long postions, instead I got out of (OIH) puts with small loss ( If waited - would be break even - I just did not feel right and it proved to be correct decision, at least for today )
If market will hold it straight tomorrow I'll be looking at some long positions in Alternate Energy sad universe, namely
(FTEK), (AKNS), (ASTI), (JASO) - have long pos. already, and, last, but not least (SOLF) - all with clearly defined stops under today's lows.
It felt really bad to be holding long calls on (XLF), (XHB), (QQQQ) in the morning, but the feeling of despair in the air was so strong that I did something I don't do very often - in spite of the fact that "I have completed long calls on (XLF), (XHB), (QQQQ) (per yesterday's post ) I closed my eyes ( not the way to deal with the stock market indeed) and raised (XLF) and (QQQQ) calls position ANOTHER 50% - oy vey...somehow that just happened at almost at the low of the day at about lunch time.
The next thing I know - market uses "better than expected horrible news" of GM's heavily "given away" numbers and what do you know - market rallies!
Have to confess - I've been a pig and did not sell any of long postions, instead I got out of (OIH) puts with small loss ( If waited - would be break even - I just did not feel right and it proved to be correct decision, at least for today )
If market will hold it straight tomorrow I'll be looking at some long positions in Alternate Energy sad universe, namely
(FTEK), (AKNS), (ASTI), (JASO) - have long pos. already, and, last, but not least (SOLF) - all with clearly defined stops under today's lows.
July 1st morning update
Was kind of hoping that "rally" I expect would come without usual panic selling first, looks like I could not be more wrong - futures improved some, but still pointing to a rough open in financial markets.
If market will dive on the open and not recover by 11:30AM - 1:30PM I'll be getting out of some of long positions. And if rebound will not happen tomorrow - I'll be "gone in 60 seconds" back in cash.
May be (OIH) puts will finally start working
Widows maker market - had to take that "Brazil Vacation"...
If market will dive on the open and not recover by 11:30AM - 1:30PM I'll be getting out of some of long positions. And if rebound will not happen tomorrow - I'll be "gone in 60 seconds" back in cash.
May be (OIH) puts will finally start working
Widows maker market - had to take that "Brazil Vacation"...
