Friday, August 03, 2007

Market Thoughts

As you noticed I’ve been mostly staying away from markets for a while now, the name of my game at the moment is “preservation of capital” – I am a perpetual bull, shorting is the last resort for me.
Forced myself into looking at the whole 9 yards of market/credit story - here what I think.
I don't think FEDs will cut rates just yet, what they will do they will change phrasing,
Admit seriousness of credit crunch (they brought rates too much down on the first place and that caused all bad credits not backed up by any meaningful collateral). Market will run first,
then, as my friend Chelobes from TradeGuild noted, will trade sideways for a while with 1999 year end kind of rally.
Meanwhile, the most promising sectors
to play on the long side are:
biotech ( not all of it, but mostly research substance makers such as: AKRX, GLGC, MGRM, MZT, SNUS),
defense contractors ( such as LMIA, LMT, KRSL, RTN last one run up on Cramer comments),
office supplies ( OMX ),
and - laugh all you want - homebuilders ( such as LEN, KBH - will keep my fingers crossed)

And here are few of my current positions: MOH, HNSN, OSUR, PAET and HINT (will, most likely close on Monday), ABBI and RMKR ( opened today),


Anonymous said...

I would prefer to see your charting work. Pretty interesting also that you´re sold your portofolio yesterday as SP500 retraced at .618, I actually started to buy even more.

I didn´t recognice most of your tiggers, do you trade qqqq stocks at all ?

DavidDT said...

I will try to post snapshot of my current trading spreadsheet (tonight) and few charts tomorrow. Just to clarify - I sold ( as planned ) PAET and HINT also closed MOH for quick profit. Today sold OSUR and ABBI ( I feel uneasy with all that volatility since I don't day trade, not often least to say, I am looking for most probable sustainable move )
So, I did not really went on cash 100% just trying to keep things in check now.