Just a short LONG list

Last time this year

ALL LONG: (GCA) (SWSI) (BXG) (CLRK) (REDF) (SGEN) (INTV) (IRBT) (PKOH)

See you all after New Year
Happy New Year!!!

New Year resolutions...

We all humans, we all use dates to make important decisions, we need excuses like
"After New Year I will ..." - and those dots are just what I'd like to talk about.
But first lets have a quiz, simple one, "Yes" and "No" answers.

1. Recently you had a "fender-bender" cause that other person stepped on the brakes all in a sudden.
(Not because you were not ANTICIPATING such event)
Y/N

2. Your kid asked to go to the country fair together and you were too busy studying the stock charts.
Y/N

3. You lost on a trade because of intense argument with your better half ( Hey, the "other" half is ALWAYS better :)
Y/N

4. You did not do something in time ( you were too busy watching delayed YAHOO stock quotes) and your boss did not give you a raise.
Y/N

5. For your portfolio you created 2 separate watch lists - one for stocks in green and you watch it religiously all the time just for the pure pleasure of it, calling your neighbor to show this list and be able to say: "On average those stocks are up 5%",
and
the second list which is substantially bigger in all respects, such as number of stocks and negative percentages, but of course, no more than -50%, of course not - your broker most likely sold that deeply margined position to be safe, and that SECOND list is the one you prefer to never look at, agonizingly hoping that somehow, miraculously you will get your money back, sometime, not soon, but sometime - and you quit smoking in order to be able to live long enough to see that moment
Y/N

6. You come home from work ( let say 7 PM EST) and you run to look at your portfolio and then you say: " I knew it was going to go down - I had to sell yesterday!" instead of "SELLING YESTERDAY"
Y/N

This list can go on and on so I'd rather stop right here before I become even more cranky than I usually am.

THE BOTTOM LINE - If you answered "YES" to one or more questions, then the "dots" in unfinished "New Year resolution" MUST be replaced with

"After New Year I will NEVER TRADE AGAIN"

After you say that, you might
1. ( Most common one) - BREAK YOUR PROMISE, lose your money, lose your job, family
( SAVE YOU ALL GOD FROM ANYTHING LIKE THAT - I, myself, almost lost everything many years ago )

2. Really stop trading ( tough choice - I know )

3. Find the BALANCE between trading and life, family, work, all that really important non material stuff, re-analyze what you did wrong, stop hiding from reality of unavoidable losses, stop blaming someone else for your mistakes, in short "learn to stand the heat" - in this case
YOU MIGHT STILL BE ABLE TO MAKE MONEY IN THE STOCK MARKET

Many Happy Returns, Best wishes to you and your families in New 2007 Year.

DavidDT

P.S. For those of you who are still reading - my "New year resolution" would be to start series of posts dedicated to more detailed explanation ( my understanding ) of
"Trading rules"
( I cannot promise that I'm going to start posting videos explaining "why and how" I picked "that" stock - for me it is close to impossible to answer, for me technical analysis are broken down to 2 main elements
First - very basic chart patterns, some technical indicators to confirm and, plus, many years of mistakes. See - I'm not even good with math!)

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Short post or "Stay alert"

Nice day on the market - for institutions when they liquidate huge positions, a lot of blind demand. Oh well, as long as Bull is here - stay with it, but keep an eye on "market leaders" and ask yourself - "Can I call RIMM and AAPL market leaders after the way they behave recently?" Remember - leaders break first, then the rest will follow, all speculative stocks with no profits, no money, just hype...
Good luck and

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Having technical problems with new "Members only" site,
so here is a list ( fresh one as of today :)

long: (WNC) (LIOX) <= on pullback (HOV) (LTRE)

"bottom fishing"
(BHIP) (ENER) (NTMD) (CORT) - I would not commit more than 1/3 of regular position to that kind of stocks.

(BBBB) on pullback - current volume does not support price move

(SMSI) back in show - not ready yet to be called "long", but worth keeping an eye on it ( might move after New Year )

New stock list

Following list has been posted at
Trading To Win Stock Lists (MEMBERS ONLY) site
( with entry/exit/strategy )
on Dec 25th at 10:27PM - 2 days ago

long: (PANL) (PRKR) (REDF) (CHCI) (CLRK) (GTLS) (SFUN) (AIQ) (FALC) (SGEN) (VDSI) (COLY)

short: (EXFO) (TRAD) (IPSU) (RAIL)

In order to access new "MEMBERS ONLY" site you will have to send request to Trading To Win email address. "Membership" is "donationware" based.

All stocks profiled on Trading To Win Stocks Lists (MEMBERS ONLY) site will appear on public Trading to Win site with 2 to 4 days delay.

In order to facilitate navigation/loading time of Trading to Win public site all affiliate links will be removed after New Year.

Current portfolio holdings will be posted on Trading To Win Stocks Lists (MEMBERS ONLY) site at the time when position is open.

Site Contributors

Thank you for making this site possible by generous donations, stream of fresh ideas and just plain love to the Great Game of Stock Market!

Mark A. NH
Cindy K. CA
Rob Z. TX
Carol M. TX
BullTrapper
Alex V. NY
Diana S. Spain
Michael G. NJ
Jon R.
George C. NV
Alice K. FL
Tom F. KY
Leon A. IL
Frank J. W. VI
Alan J. CT
Kathy B. MA

And many more...

JSDA or a secret behind "The Cramer effect"

Was not really going to write any more "educational" posts till New Year, but just saw something which really winded me up, so lets talk about ... Cramer.
Who would expect me to talk about Cramer who serves as an entertainer to "1999 like zombies crowd"?
Well, I just would like to point out that so called "Cramer effect" is not caused by extraordinary power of persuasion of Mr. Cramer and ( to a lesser extent ) by stupidity of people who follow his "advise", but by very good team of technical analysts.

JSDA appeared on my scans few weeks ago satisfying my scan criteria: small float, reasonable institutional holdings, nice short interest, close to 52 week high ( I cannot say that I agree about Mr. Cramer statement about solid grows - JSDA missed badly last quoter).
On December 15,18,19 chart of the stock which was poised to go up formed "stepping" pattern ( I'm not really good with fancy candlestick patters, so you'd have to forgive me - what I see and recognize is based on my many years of mistakes ).
Dec 20 stock broke out gaining 14% on above average volume, next day - really big volume, I just wondering as WHO was buying - but stock does not move much and sit sooo close to 52WH where overhead resistance is nearly non-existent.
And here it is 6PM and here comes "Johnny", oh, forgive me - JIMMY, toting JSDA as next HANS and, you guessed it right - stock takes of in after hours trading.
Look at the chart ( I even decided to post the chart which I don't do very often, so you'd see what I saw ).
Enjoy

I'm in New York state of mind...

Yes and no,
to be precise "I'm in Holiday's state of mind..."

As you've noticed I've not been posting too often last 4 days and here is why.
One of "The Rules" says: "No revenge trading" and I normally try not to trade too much during the last 2 weeks of the year, what has it got to do with each other?
Let say I made money for the year already, then I'd be trading to make "just a little bit more.." translation "I have not made as much as I could I want to catch up!" Hmm..
Or Let say I lost money for the year or just did not do well, then I'd be trading in desperation, often not having good reason for a trade except for fear to be down for the year- not good, not for my taste at least
Plus with all that holiday running around, visits to relatives and friends, constant calls, packages and all that noise usually accompanying holiday season - I'd be destructed and pressured to rush in and out of the trades.
As silly as this "restraining from trading last 2 weeks of the year" sounds, - it works for me.
What I usually do last 2 weeks - I try to get a feel of where market will be going and open positions which I'll hold over New Year.
And as of today - I'm ready for 2007 and my portfolio mostly stacked with...that I don't have to disclose UNLESS I post any of the stocks I hold as a daily pick :) AT THE TIME OF WRITING.

Normally I would not post symbols I'm about to post, they all have one thing in common - "bottom fishing", but at this time of the year it is possible to get away with that, here they are:

long: (FORD) (MECA) both are very speculative, of course the worst that can happen - they will go to ZERO ( Not in one day that is for certain :)

I might post more stock lists this and next week, may be even tonight - if not -

Marry Christmas
and Happy New Year!

How to deal with the "Losing streak"

Dedicated to my friend CHELOBES from TradeGuild - good trader, great guy, better father and even better person.

Firstly, I need to make it clear - I don't want to scare anyone away, BUT - loosing is an integral part of trading. PERIOD.
Does not matter "how good YOU are" or "how cooperative market is", everyone WILL have to deal with loosing trades. ANOTHER PERIOD.

There are multiple ways of dealing with losing position

a. Cut your losses at the certain -% point, most widely known advise is 7-8% on closing basis. It is very important - and really easy to do if you don't have love affair with a piece of "electronic paper" going on - I, personally, never do.
As a matter of fact I am so "not connected" to what I trade - that I may close every position I have just solely for the "I want to go on vacation" reason. Not even a LONG vacation, I might want to fly to Bermuda for a weekend to play golf with my former "BlackJack Buddies" ( They play, I drive that ridiculous car around the course - I hate golf ). Why? I don't want to worry about "how market and my portfolio is doing while I'm having fun. How do I have to relax if I'll be holding Treo in my hand?

Another very important reason for closing loosing trade A.S.A.P. is that it is close to impossible ( for me it IS impossible - I'm too emotional, not about loosing money, but about "been wrong" part ) to THINK CLEARLY when agonizingly watching you "hard to come money" disappear. GET OUT, CALM DOWN, RETHINK, REGROUP.

b. Stop trading after 4 or 5 loosing trades in a row ( this is another popular advise ). If nothing wrong with you something is wrong with the market - slow down and figure out "WHAT" is wrong. Mostly it is just another "switch" and you have to sit it out.

c. My personal "strategic" favorite - variable position sizing.
I don't trade "number of shares. NEVER. This is an AMATEUR thing! 1000 shares of .50 stock versus 1000 shares of $50 stock WILL put you in the poorhouse. PERIOD.

I trade "amount". My initial position during the course of "normal" trading is 1/6 of my total portfolio value ( no margin considerations ). Lets call 1/6 of portfolio value "X amount".

So, when the time is right I'd open position for 1*X
If market will confirm I might add in increments of 1/2*X up to 3*x on the way of my trade ( depending on long or short ), but never will add on the way opposite to my trade - ANOTHER SURE WAY to the poorhouse.

Here is an example.
I open 1*X position at $20, it goes to $26. Since I always want to keep ( this is my personal number ) at least 1/3 of the profit on the trade - I have $4 "safety margin", here I might add 1*X at $26 to the total position size of 2*X, but here is a kick - IF TRADE START TO GO AGAINST ME - I will have to close it at $24 - no questions asked and keep 1/3 of the trade profit.
The good news is - if trade continues to work the way I expect I'm squeezing few ( not double or triple ) extra $$$.
The bad news is - as I keep adding to moving position - my "safety margin" becoming smaller and smaller and I have to watch it constantly. The max I can go to is 3*X ( This is "swing/short term trading talk", not a "day trading" - Day trading is a totally different ball game, I do day trading from time to time, but NONE of the picks on this site is intended for day trading - all of stocks I post are "short term")

Now I'm getting to the "loosing" part. If I have 4-5 loosing trades in a row I might:

1. Use "b paragraph way" and take a break ( this is an extreme measure in case if I feel like "vigilantly" - and the only outcome of "revenge trading" is BIGGER losses. While I'm off the market I'll try to forget that market exists and spend most of my "at home time" listening to the very rare find I fell in love with many years ago.

2. My preferred way - I will decrease initial position size to 1/2*X or even 1/3*X AND I will be out of loosing trade way before 8% rule, mostly at about 2-3%.
This way if I continue to be confused by market action my losses will be limited. That is what some famous trader ( Jesse Livermore? ) called "probing"

I prefer this way since market is not constant, nothing is, market is full of talented and rich players, way better than I am, and since I don't want to "beat the market", but rather "flow WITH the market" and using this strategy helps me to get back "in the flow" with minimal damage. ( If I use #1 "stay out of the market" way - I risk missing the major "flow" and getting back in just in time for another "switch"

"Suckers rally"?

Pardon me saying that, it is more difficult for me to say than for most people, I am eternal bull, I believe in progress, I practice O'Neil way of looking at the markets, but... somehow "all time high" with 99 points move with NO SUPPORTING volume does not look so good to me, beside - I knew that it will happen today, of course I did not know magnitude, but as you can recall "weather forecast" predicted "good day on the market ( tomorrow morning will be positive as well - till noon ? )

Every expected and hoped for breakout was quickly and orderly brought down by steady selling into the strength ( that is what I was doing too), looks like major/experienced traders do not think it'll last ( upside move it is )

Still, while we don't have confirmed move to the downside I have more longs on the watch list than shorts - here they are.

long: (NANX) (RDWR) (SFUN) (SWSI) (VDSI) (CRXL) (EVEP) (FIZ) (GCA)

short: (LUM) (STKL)

I'm in the "holding pattern", but will be watching very short term trading opportunities as they present themselves.

Or, what the heck, may be I'll just take vacation till New Year

HAPPY HANUKKAH!