D-wave update

just caught myself on "honest mistake" AKA eyes want to see etc...
anyhow
I was on 1120 target for a while based on daily w3 of up sequence and never bothered to double check what was the final target of C of down sequence... (my software prints C right at the moment when it is "locked" and then stops)
recalculated - C target is 1113
what does it change? in terms of points – not much, 1120 or 1113 is no biggie.

But it might change MORE THAT JUST A NUMBER.
Well - wave sequence up (green) for as long as wave sequence down (red) has not completed might be just a flick and 1120 w3 and consecutive w5 1250 targets might not hold water for as long as SPX is below 1113 of C target.

And that might sync daily and weekly counts just about now.

 

Doe sit mean that the top for 2009 is in?  Of course not…but it bettering the odds yet a little bit more than before.

Do we need indexes?

This is the chart I posted on Friday somewhere on Disqus

 

Was quite puzzled by morning action, was patiently waiting for wA to print on hourly SPX chart – it never happened.  Traded my way out of short oblivion I placed my day trading account in quite prematurely based on this SPX chart…

 

I have to remind to myself and to anyone silly enough to read my musings – INDEX OPENING PRICE (as well as CLOSING) is a chimera – does not exist, it is by-product of whatever they think it should be as oppose to the REAL trading instrument.

“Would you like a pony?”

Yes, I am talking about that commercial with 1 grown up and 2 little girls.

3 people – none to blame, grown up is a salesman and “You don’t lie – you don’t sell” and little girls are just that – children. The answer I’d like to know is: Why grown up morons never ask “what is the cap of mortgage’s interest rate?”, “Will I be double taxed on cash for clunkers?”, “Will my Health Saving Account evaporate if I leave this job?”. Morons are universal entity – they MUST be taken advantage of. Anyhow…. market…

Interesting action today. Right in line with SPY monthly chart I posted yesterday and 1080.40 TDST weekly… SPX high today 1080.15

I wanted to post few charts, then went outside to smoke and it came upon me that I don’t want to see any more charts today. Instead – here is the riddle:

“Why Bulls need to pray for new highs not to be taken for as long as possible, especially in any months starting from October?”

[here is the hint: “monthly SPX chart and D-Wave]

SPX Monthly line in the sand

Patience, patience…

SPX set new closing high today, therefore perfecting Weekly Sell Setup

Risk Level for Active TDSetup sell is around 1080.40 – has not been violated and lining up with “blue line in the sand” 1082 area on monthly chart.

EUR/USD hit upper channel and primer for immediate reversal

The only REAL Question I have at this point is:

“Will it be [1] just a steep correction to 900-950 area OR [2] beginning of multi months down move?”

I stick with #1 until proven wrong.

Beware the power of cheese …

Meaning – stop double guessing your own analysis and do not try to front run yourself.

On September 16th 2009 I stressed importance of 22.20 area for UUP as w3 target is around that area, plus other considerations – here we are, almost there (22.65 which looks like retest of prior low in the vicinity of wave 3 down target) today before market open.  This is where we go long dollar, I’d say “WHEN”, not even where and it is today.  Especially if TDCombo 13 Buy will be printed today or tomorrow.

 

 

Transports in trouble?

A you can see IYT has been obeying DeMArk’s TDSequential marvelously till now – do you think exception will be made this time to support statement “Recession is OVER” (I will not ask what they are smoking – I do care about my health)

Just in time for Cramer to bring on bunch of CEOs with conversational ability matching those of beauty pageants contest participants – I really enjoyed watching Mr. Bunch today answering million dollars question: “If you would go to G20 meeting – what would you tell them?”

What a bunch of crack…

Now…

watch this video – I think this is a fine example of how mass media’s propaganda works – if people can be bullied or brain washed due to the lack of brains, integrity or simply put – knowledge, media paid by people who caused the the problems on the first place will succeed and Americans might buy this BS story AKA “Everything is fine”…may be this is why American Educational system SUCKS?  There should have been a good reason why Stalin sent all educated people to Gulag!

 

“Expert Witness”

$SPX update

Here is where SPX stands right now.
Weekly TDSequential Sell Countdown has been effectively canceled by new completed Sell setup - which IS an ACTIVE setup now. (there is a developing Combo Sell, but it is to be expected on new Setup and I would not pay any attention to that right now)
Prior Weekly Risk Level has been canceled. (thou it will still be acting as some support now along with prior TDSTs)
New Risk Level for Active TDSetup sell is around 1080.40
Weekly w4 up of down sequence is at around 55%retrace of w3 down.
That's all about weekly
Now, daily
On Friday 9-13-9 sequence completed (one of the most reliable sell signals)
Daily Risk level is around 1088.50 (note - 8 points higher than active weekly Risk Level)
w3 daily of up wave sequence is within the reach from my as of July 9th 1120 target - current level might do (with yet another slightly higher new high)
I expect SUBSTANTIAL CORRECTION (not P3 speaking EW terms) to start next week - in the beginning it will be muted - hourly will go into a-b-c
The final correction level would be around 950 where yet another daily up wave w5 will start and might take SPX to 1250 level (I am one consistent SOB)
I am definitely too lazy to calculate "time projection", but I might... later on.
Analysis of hourly chart hints on momentum exhaustion for current UP wave sequence since 8/24 when w3 substantially undershoot its target. w5 is exactly AT target right now, posted 13 Countdown and MIGHT complete Combo 13 Monday/Tuesday.

SPX Range Projection for Monday is 1066.34-1073.53 – I expect low to be broken and if so, it will indicate short term trend change.

As for Monday’s action – I can speculate for lower open, new high by midday and down the hill from there.
That's all folks

P.S. Oh, here is an oldie but goodies busy chart - you might dislike that channel anything you want, but it has been of a great help since mid June

I am having bad dreams…

In the early 21st century, all of mankind united and marveled at our magnificence as we gave birth to AI [artificial intelligence], a singular construction that spawned an entire race of machines.

The Matrix

 

[sounds like “global financial system to me]

 

 

Why would all the “somebody” officials climb on the podiums at the same time using “anniversary of Lehman collapse” as synonym for “start of recession” [which is as remote from truth as anything for what we don’t know explanation, or know and scared to use one] which in fact started long before with intentional pumping of “balloon money” as the only mean to keep the system on life support till the next elections.

Why would they risk their political carriers and be known in history as “worse than nobody”?  They DO know that NOTHING has been fixed, they do know that tension is building up, they know that there is nothing they can do except postponing inevitable.

Is something is about to happen they know about and they are going to use it as yet another excuse and say: “We did everything that we had to do and saved the day, but THAT was beyond our control”?

Am I paranoid? YES, indeed I AM.

Paranoia kept me alive when I had series of interviews at Deutsche Bank, not at the old Bankers Trust building at Liberty Street, but on one of the floors of The Towers and I hated those express elevators more than anything I ever used for transportation and was so uneasy during the interview that I thought they will never call me for the second one, but they did…and I did not really want to go and kept postponing dates, and then I kept dragging feet on the way in and subway was slow …and it got to Brooklyn Bridge right in time to be stopped.

Today is Rosh Hashanah, Shana Tova, best wishes to all of you and your families and more than anything I wish my bad dream not to come true.

P.S. I think I saw black helicopters above my house and WHO are those people from UTAH who are spending HOURS at my site day after day – what ANYONE can possible do at my site for HOURS???

A Very Good Place to Start

SMH rolled over on perfected TDSetup Sell Daily few days ago, IYT rolled over on TDSequential Sell yesterday, QQQQ / IYR today on Sell Setup, SPX still needs to post higher daily close to perfect Sell Setup - most likely tomorrow / Monday, but nothing really prevents it from falling even without that since most of underlying sectors are all set to go.
Not to be novice sounding ( a lot of DeMark newbie just blindly attempting to buy or sell every signal) - corresponding D-Wave sequences on lower timeframes show apparent failure swings on most sector ETFs as between waves 3 and 5.
FXE - Sell is upon US and mighty American Peso will rise once again and then wave final goodbye to our valets.
timewise -market probably facing rude awakening and will be taught for the next 2 weeks that what goes up for no reason, fall down even faster.

P.S. As I was typing it Nikkei took a beating, mighty American Peso breaking to the upside, unless I was speaking into empty telephone last few days – no damage to your long portfolios will be done…of course all long portfolios are closed…are they?

Not much to say

All counts stand, run up was expected (September 17th is completion of multiple TDSetup Sells), the ideal for bear case scenario for tomorrow would be higher open and down from there (all Setups have been perfected today, so at least, we don’t have to worry about perfecting those levels few days in the future) – bearish engulfing would be something to dream of.  Even if market continue to go higher into Friday, all counts will stand, plus TD Risk Levels (Stops for setups) will be set for dailies and weeklies.  Next week will be VERY TELLING.  We will find out if massive money printing/fact twisting can be “bigger than the market”

Dollar/UUP level to watch - $22 – that is w3 down target, but I doubt it will go lower than 22.20 – if it does it will effectively cancel UP wave sequence in progress.

Chat of the day – and it is not now…

 

The “death” of The Great Bear

So, here we are in the year of 2009, on a sunny day of September 16th and it has been collectively “decided” and announced by main stream media (if they said it on TV – it mush be the TRUTH – is not it?) that the scariest bear market is history is now OVER.  Every single bearish blog is full of “I need a hug”, “hold me tight”, “Mama , I am so cold”, “THAT does not make any sense – why they don’t see what we see” etc.

 

 

The bear is dead, long live the bear

WELCOME TO THE BEAR MARKET

That is HOW you KNOW WHEN it is OVER

“The key-word here is blackwhite. Like so many Newspeak words, this word has two mutually contradictory meanings. Applied to an opponent, it means the habit of impudently claiming that black is white, in contradiction of the plain facts”.

          George Orwell's novel Nineteen Eighty-Four

Charts Galore

Over the period of the last few weeks I have received number of emails, nicely and intelligently phrased, but still having pretty much the same meaning:

“You [DavidDT], by being bearish and fighting the trend, missing new bull market and wasting your money and energy fighting windmills”

What is fair is fair – setting aside indicators I use, it has been very difficult for any normal person with IQ slightly above single digits to buy into all this crap mainstream media feeds inept American public. (By the way – did you know that there was a close to million people demonstration in Washington right this Saturday September 12th 2009?  You did not?  No surprise here – in spite of crowd size comparable to Million Men March it has received NO coverage in mainstream media, almost NONE. PERIOD)

Now – back to the system I use. 

DeMark Indicators.

Let me ask you – how many of hundreds subscribers of FREE (that is FREE – I share information on DeMark studies which can hardly be found anywhere else on the Internet for FREE), how many have bought this book?  How many even understand the WAY to use all those whacky numbers (that is what MORONS who reviewed this book on Amazon wrote - “whacky system” – without spending time to understand the USE of DeMark indicators and interrelations between them and multiple conditional trading decisions resulting from the SAME SIGNAL, but separated by CLEAR guidelines?)

How many of you? … Exactly…

Now, on the subject of “being bearish”.  How many of you knew that SPX MIGHT go to 1120 back in July?  None, right?  Or it is easy to say NOW: “Of course we did know that”

I kept evaluating multiple scenarios, spelled out all the “IF, ELSE IF, THEN”s (former programmer here)

Thursday, July 09, 2009 – clearly stated 1120 target

Saturday, July 18, 2009 

Friday, July 24, 2009     - explained mistake I made when attempted to do short term short trade

Sunday, September 06, 2009

Sometimes I even wondering – from hundreds of people who VOLUNTIRELY are on my mailing list (and many more through feedburner and such) – how many even read what I write, and if they don’t – why are they still on the mailing list and what am I wasting my time for?

Now, few charts with no explanations - for people who did buy and read this book …. oh, and for those who will “discover” affiliate link in there – use it as excuse to not to buy it.

 

(SMH) Cramer’s Buy-Buy or David’s Bye-Bye?

SPX new video published to ScreenCast (no more youtube)

http://www.screencast.com/t/L3iMpl5PGkQy

8 years of nothing, but bubbles...and counting…(in Observance of 9/11)

 

To all my friends who meaninglessly lost their lives in the flames of WTC - you are remembered, you are forever in my heart...

The last bubble is yet to burst – and it is not US economy…

 

This picture was taken few days later from Merrill Lynch’s building at Broadway 200

Evil Twins

     Interesting to observe how much hyped “Recovery for dumbasses by crooks” rally is just a complete debasing of US currency as the only way out of unpayable national debt to, as delusionally thought out of,  “3rd world countries”

EURO trust (FXE)

 

NASDAQ100 trust (QQQQ) – chart posted yesterday

“Do you think this is an air you are breathing, Neo?”

I am going out on a limb – correction starts tomorrow

It’s a dollar, Stupid #3

Very disappointing action indeed, unless /dx will close this week above 77.85 TDST I will have to abandon my long position…but wait – there is more!

Today /DX completed TDSequential Buy Countdown on daily chart!  And “Yes” – it is declining, BUT ROC has changed – may be it will not be 0 and we (USsA) will still have to default on foreign debt!

Right close to long term daily TDST Support line…interesting

 

Just a chart

Game plan for shortened week

Difficult to project action due to Labor-Less Holy-Crap-Day, so this is just one of the possible scenarios, shall SPX exceed 1038sh (well, even 1025 will severely damage this plan) – the whole plan will be discarded, losses eaten and new plan shall rise from the ashes of failed one – I have no loyalty to the trades.

Open 1017-1020 on Tuesday, going to 1023 - 1024 by 10:20AM  and closing Tuesday right under 998

Wednesday - above 1016 – that value (or Monday’s high) will be week’s high close week above 1004.09 – that is a “desirable” close in order not to cancel weekly TDSetup sell, but the way it looks now – it is HIGHLY unlikely – Weekly Sell Setup WILL be canceled and decline to next week’s lows will be followed by setting new high by the 4th week of September.

low by the end of the week, big question, but, possibly,  decline to 960+/- area (at least 980)

Longer term view

In about one/two weeks time I'll be able to calculate most likely upside target for w5 daily (shall w4 confirm)
Without having low point of w4 I can only calculate so called "Ultimate theoretical target" and it would be SPX 1265 by mid November/early Dec (and that seems to be slightly far fetched)
Coincidentally, that very same area is an extreme price/volume congestion for a long period before Oct 07 meltdown started.

 

shall we get really deep retrace next week to 960 area, most likely upside target for w5 would be 1070 (1120 was my long term target starting back in March, unfortunately I, just like a lot of people here, got caught by very shallow 23% retracement of w2 and did not use that price swing to my full advantage)
As for possible downside target for upcoming w5 weekly of down sequence I am maintaining 584 (which is "Ultimate target" and cannot be refined unless w4 up weekly corrective wave will be completed ) for March/June 2010

Happy barbequing!

I wanted to say: “Happy Labor Day Weekend”, but stopped right when I had to – there is nothing “Happy” about it and there is no “Labor” left, not unless you live in China or India or Russia or … wherever YOUR LABOR WENT in order to make THEM ENOUGH money to lose on THEIR JUNKIE MONEY HABITS

(Cannot say that according to my sources in aforementioned countries it is any better with labor now – WE, ‘ole “good” USsA successfully plugged THEIR financial systems with our crooked “innovations”)

Here is some REAL “non-CNBC compliant” official employment data from

In simplified math it means that ONE out of SIX willing to work Americans is OUT OF WORK

Cheers

P.S. Patience my friends, patience…it will get MUCH WORSE.

P.P.S. September…to remember?

FASB meetings, G20 meeting, FOMC meetings (not that I give a rat’s arse about that),180 days foreclosures “moratoriums” ending from state to state, healthcare mumbling…

Tomorrow's news today (I wish...) - AKA "my trading plan"

SPX
around 11:50AM EST (OR 10:50 for 15min chart - but it is less likely) I will be looking for 10min bar to set new high
the moment such bar will print - I will submit all queued trailing stop orders for my short term long positions
Why queued? Because I will have no time to do it manually.

Next
Somewhere between noon and 12:30 I will be re-opening short term short positions IF market behavior will confirm my plan.
How high SPX will go?
Don't know yet and again - time is more important to me than price (but I can speculate that it will be around 1012 area)
How high it will NOT go? Not higher than 1020.77 - IF it does - it will be disaster and total change of plans :)

For you "cube slaves"

CALL YOUR 401Ks cASStodians.
TELL them in clear Chinese "Smoke U" and TELL them to give you an option to put your hard earned money (what’s left of it anyways)
INTO CASH
in most 401Ks there is not even an option to have Money Market or CASH option
think
So called  "Principal preservation" funds are just "baskets of safest investments" AKA Treasuries, muni bonds etc - when the time will come - they WILL CRASH AS FAST AS EQUITIES.

Read fine print – these are NOT cash equivalents and are not insured by FDIC or SIPC.
Get off your paycheck players’ asses - DO SOMETHING for YOURSELVES!

Disclosure: net short US equities