finita la comedia lungo

This is the picture of my pet Timmy – he thinks that he is scarier, stronger and definitely smarter than most of his opponents.

 

 

 

 

 

First I wanted to make a video – then I realized it’ll be more than one 10min part, so I passed on that.

Then I wanted to plaster 20 charts all over the wall of my blog – tired of charts.

So, based on knowledge that my readers are intelligent and disciplined traders – I will throw in just one chart, if you seen that one – you’ve seen them all (or most of them, because they look awfully similar)

 

Oh..in case if you are wondering what the hell am I talking about, you’d better brush your Italian, but to hint you in – at this point all long trades are out of the questions for me for a while, I think RALLY IS OVER,  but shall it continue - all my short positions will be liquidated on weekly SPX close above 981.13 (most likely) – in this rotten trading environment where the only way for “All King’s men”  to overcome meaningful key resistance points is to pump few million dollars into futures in illiquid pre-market session there is no place for logical trader like me.  If, by some corrupt miracle SPX shall close up tomorrow – my bets are off for a while.

(remember that unprecedented Obama statement: “We will do everything to stabilize markets” – what, for God sakes, has Presidente to do with stock market – votes and election campaign money? Best propaganda machine for John Q. Public? Or is it just easier to mess with the market instead of caring not for corporate profits for fat cats, but for stable employment for dumb sheeple?  Or fixing the ROOTS of underlying problem that caused that mess on the first place?)

Let see what is going to happen on Monday August 3rd – that was the deadline UBS (and I suspect a lot of other “caring brokers”) imposed for liquidating UltraShort ETFs’ positions – no wonder move up continued on no volume whatsoever.

There is time when we have to be long market, other times we have to be short – this seems to be a great time to be OUT OF THE MARKET – let them screw themselves.

DavidDT

P.S. This is what I wrote on Disqus at 10:19AM EST today

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DavidDT Today 10:19 AM

“only in hindsight we'll know that today was "the day when shooting star fell from moronic better than worse sky"
...or not...”

Now we know…

The art of chart #N

Take a look at that post as of March 16th 2009

Day Trading /ES off an Hourly Chart

specifically at this HOURLY chart

It appeared multiple times in my posts, during live trading chat, posts - /ES was magnetized by that color – uh-ha – color is the answer.

Do you know where that trendline is now?  Hand drawn, no calculations, not suspecting that I will see it 4 and a half months later …on hourly chart?

 

Before I retire for tonight – I’ll throw in one more chart

 

No question?  Great – I love to deal with people who know all the answers.  Good night now…

Quick Update

After today’s slightly higher high on Cubes DOWN wave on yesterday's 15 min chart be gone, but W5 (on QQQQ – don’t get as confused as I am) is very close to projected target area of around $41

Here is an updated chart of /ES

 

ALL elements of this chart have been in place for a long time - except for adjustment of March low to current high.
It is striking how all major levels suddenly aligned the moment current high on /ES was put in place

A little air for the crying baby bear

 

 

China ready to pullback? Dollar bounce?

Bernanke: This may be worse than Great Depression

Bernanke Explains Crisis to 'Average Americans' - Market Watch

I screwed up

  Somewhere along the lines of my posts, in my charts, videos, Disqus comments – The Market Truth was lost.

Vanity is NOT my favorite sin, but desire to be correct is and somehow the only truth that matters – Mr Mightily Market’s truth – that truth was amiss.

I have never listened to “great” earnings releases at the tops – somehow I was trying to pinpoint inaccuracy and lies and nonsense in ERs and CCs at the current 900 levels.

Thanks God I was deaf to all the bearish arguments at 666 SPX or I would have missed one of the best trades of this year.

"I really can't tell you why all the bearish arguments are wrong..."

Why did that happen?  I became biased, somehow all the actions of all the King’s men got under my skin, causing me to be constantly frustrated by corruptive grotesqueness of unfit rulers of American Universe who put all that excess debt through corporations into throats of greedy people and then made jobless or getting by sheeple pay back to corporations without any chance to default by stealing taxpayers money and raising taxes as I type – the very same money these poor suckers need now to survive (I am not touching the subject that deadbeats had no reason to drive home fantasy equity loans funded BMW’s on the first place)

A lot of perma bears are whining and blaming FED, treasury or their abusive Papa – I have none to blame, but myself … and it is not really a blame – just admittance of making mistake and missing great long trade (as oppose to “losing lots of money on unjustified short trade” – yup, lots of money down the drain, you betcha). You can say “in the hindsight”, but confirmed W2 wave was sitting right there on my charts from July 10th 2009 and the main reason I did not accept 23% retracement as W2’s low – beside extreme unusualness of such shallow retracement as 23% – was my bias and I kept expecting at least 38%=840 and totally dismissed 875 target which I pronounced “less likely” in this post.

[not trying to find excuses, but for W2 corrective wave retracement of 62% IS the most likely or “preferred” scenario, but market is there to surprise – surprised I was.  There is yet another reason, so silly that I am ashamed to disclose it, well … I was looking at Cubes A.K.A. QQQQ as a proxy for Nasdaq Composite without even realizing what the hell I was looking at – and NASDAQ100, due to heavy technology/biotech exposure has totally different wave structure and these discrepancies confused me even more…oy vey :( ]

 

I will be revising a lot of my charts over the weekend,  cleaning and unifying,  for now I can say that my original target of 1120 (with pullback or consolidation around 990-1020 – pretty close now and most likely will start after, possibly, slightly higher close on Monday) - which was lost behind growing pile of charts stands, and this bull market’s top (within much bigger and longer secular bear market)  will, most likely, be at 1265 area.

I paid my price for being biased – yet another very expensive lesson.

DavidDT

P.S. 7 words you cannot say on TV ..eh .. on this blog
1. H&S
2. C&H
3. double top/bottom
4. perma bull
5. perma bear
6. capitulation
7. CNBC

Reality Calls

“Knock  knock”

“Who is there?”

“That is your wake up reality earnings call”

OK, that was very bad day to be short and a very good day to exit long positions.

I exited my last long calls VLO position and went “all in short” – added a lot of long puts and inverse Ultra ETFs.

Say that I am 100% net short will be untrue – I am, most likely 150% net short.

Today TDSetup sell completed (perfected) on mostly every single ETF and individual stocks I am watching. Dollar completed buy.  The only thing that complicate short trade at this point is huge highest bar of setup (which is today) and risk level is too far away.  So, I set my stop for short trade based on WEEKLY SPX CLOSE above 981.13

I even was a Good Samaritan today and put my ex-wives 401K accounts in cash – no good deed will go unpunished indeed – one of them [ex-wives] after been in cash since October 2007 asked me back in February 2009:

“WHY AM I NOT MAKING MONEY?”

That dumb thing (I hope she is not reading it) does not understand that not losing 70% of your retirement = making 300% for people who knows simple math.  Oh, I did put those accounts back in equities on March 2nd (the day when I created my “end of the world” portfolio – that makes an extra 40% profit YTD with no option to be short – those f..d up 401Ks designed to suck in your money and pump stock market and GS salaries up – you know :)

NASDAQ Rally to peak tomorrow?

While paying most of attention to SPX, I was keeping my eye on QQQQ as well and today interesting detail jumped right into my face.

Cubes MIGHT complete minimum requirements for W5 Up on daily chart tomorrow IF tomorrow’s close will be just a little bit higher than today’s.  It will happen at the same time as perfected TDSetup Sell signal will be completed.

Therefore, selloff/correction I expected to start tomorrow might be postponed till Friday, but it is simply amazing (speaking with Maria Bart… whatever her last name is  - saying “Amaaaaazing! CEOs are saying everything is fine” – back in Autumn of 2007.) how multiple indicators aligned on the same date!

S&P500 analysis video

 

S&P500 analysis video

...bigger than U.S. Steel...

"Hyman Roth: If I could only live to see it, to be there with you. What I wouldn't give for twenty more years! Here we are, protected, free to make our profits without Kefauver, the goddamn Justice Department and the F.B.I. ninety miles away, in partnership with a friendly government. Ninety miles! It's nothing! Just one small step, looking for a man who wants to be President of the United States, and having the cash to make it possible. Michael, we're bigger than U.S. Steel."

Should that movie be made today I bet someone from GS would be saying that…

Back to charts – in light of an opening quote – does it look like XME is about to go down?

And here is another short beauty – retail holders RTH

SPX Failed breakout?

wrote yesterday on Disqus:

in Bear Capitulation Monday Rub Down on evilspeculator

quote=>>>

this week:
restaurants = short
retail = short (GYMB = sweet)
semis = short (INTC, NTAP, SNDK)
shippers ~ short
Transports = lagging and IYT does NOT truly reflect performance of components
Financials = SHORT (GS, STT, MA, V, HBC, PRU)
FCX, GG, CAT - short
VIX = long and on tl?
People who watch CNBC say Cramer says: "Yeah, wear the blinders and buy-buy-buy - just like back in Oct 2007 - you'll be glad you did"

End of quote

Now, nothing much changed, dollar trying to find local bottom on TSDetup Buy daily

Oil sold off for “no reason”  other than dollar(?), bonds moving up second day in the row, market dived on great CAT ER (great??? selling off PAID manufactured goods???), TNX sees no light in 2010, APPL proved time and again that stupidity of John Q. Public knows no limits (buying I-shit-phones instead of paying off credit cards) – everything progresses as planned for Thursday selloff.  One of the most prominent bears (at least he thinks of himself as “important bear”) declared himself surrendered and admitted not making any money in 2009 (wow – how in the hell was it possible with at least 2 major trading opportunities – down into March and ride up since March 6th [somehow I managed to spot it dead on as oppose to most of “greatest” going long 2 weeks after the bottom] - well – this is what BIAS does to traders – they see what they WANT to see, not what it IS   – time to make some money on the short side now.

It’s a Dollar, Stupid! (UUP)

Wrote in my “trade notes” on Sunday night: “The ideal Monday (UUP) close would be between 23.52 and 23.55.”

Today UUP closed at 23.50 – close enough.

Tomorrow is the day for change of mood…

 

Wonders of the world

before I retire for tonight, I want you to see something, in DeMark "books" it is simply amazing (knowing that 9 such closes are enough for completed Sell Setup)
36 ! it is still a momentum move, no interruption in counts.
I don't know WHEN it will stop (I do expect tomorrow/Wednesday) - but when it WILL STOP and fall - it will be nothing short of spectacular.

 

Painful grind

Since I opened short positions last Thursday (I started few shorts even before that, but was hedging them heavily) in just 3 days SPX is right at my “risk/stop levels”.

If Tuesday/Wednesday there will be no turnaround or market will put on its rally hat again – I am taking my losses (about 7% of portfolio as of today) – it always better think when you are on cash.

Below are two of the same SPX weekly chart – first better illustrates current channels in play and second - “stops/risk levels”

The Devil is in DETAILS

 

TTW 20090719 USD COMP SPX PART 1

 

 

TTW 20090719 USD COMP SPX PART 2

Left out Disqus’ fragment of my imagination

[posted on Disqus yesterday after midnight]

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DavidDT 9 hours ago

You might have to forgive me sisters and brothers ratburgers, it is Friday night and I doubt you were drinking what Mad Russians are drinking, but do I have a good news for you!
The Bear is LIVE! Long live the Bear...ugly H&S beautiful symmetrical in its own Treasury smokikiking ... what was I drinking? - way!
Fortified by inability to CLOSE above 942.45 second day in the row that is probably one of the cleanest r/r [short] trades I've seen in a long time... like 4 days? Sleep well
(pay attention to the differences in highs marked by yellow brick road ..arrows ...who gave me THAT drink...?
AND tdst 912 from 1/9/09 right in the middle...damn - Kandinsky would not do a better crap!
http://screencast.com/t/HAcW5RgIua

Disqus chatter…

[Feel lazy tonight, was reading what I was saying on Disqus today (helps to refresh my ADD corrupted memory]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RagnarDanneskjöld 8 hours ago

Wanna hear evil: People who are beginning to whisper that we are in Wave 3 of some quasimodo-type rally ; )

DavidDT

it might be possible but first SPX needs to CLOSE above 942.45 AND a close above 12 prior bars to confirm W3 up so far we had only 4 of such - too early to pronounce W3 up live and kicking.
if that happens - it will take SPX to 1120 in no time.
http://screencast.com/t/o1yuqB97b

==================================

OK week, difficult to trade, but whoever thinks that becoming full time trader will make life LESS difficult - should stay in cubes :)
only have myself to blame for not spotting the rally
http://screencast.com/t/gBrnfkT8tsj

==================================

don't know about you ladies, but 30min chart which has been very reliable in other signals on D-wave - EVEN if it is UP wave - then pullback to 925 (in line with Mole's projection)
BUT - and I think this is what that is (in spite of RSI being in bull territory) - then W3 down if starts will take us down to 820.
http://screencast.com/t/7N7yVeqHZ
Once again - that 76% retrace is the most unpredictable and painful if caught on the wrong side.
Have a great weekend ladies...
oh... and gentlemen...

The Pied Piper

My eyes are old – are those bulls?

Intraday “report”

Closed all FSLR/POT long calls, eased on many other long calls, /trimmed /CL long from Friday, added QID. GOOG puts, SRS

“The moment of truth”

[posted on http://evilspeculator.com/?p=9220&success&dsq=12684693#comment-12684693]

the moment of truth is upon us fellow ratburgers!
If following equities will not be able to CLOSE higher than referenced levels before noon - I'll be all over long puts
BIDU @303
AMZN 84.5
GOOG 428
and long calls SRS if holds 19.70
SPX 912 is important, but even more important SPX 915.80 on WEEKLY CLOSE (/es 914.75 today is important as well)
good luck - we are going to need it today (unless most of you are about to desert short train :)

When to hold and when to fold?

Today will give us an idea where market is going to go.

/ES 914.75 area action is the key.

Aggs looking good! (POT),(AGU),(IPI)

Opened few long calls positions today for IPI and AGU  (Sep/Oct) – if in fact they are starting W5 UP – potential targets are almost double. (in addition to POT long calls from yesterday).  I

Watching the yellow brick..eh trendline

S&P500 Videos

 

SPX Weekly

 

SPX Daily

The week it was…

Quick memory trip first – this is what I wrote on Wednesday, July 01, 2009:

“ Good riddance of Queen’s Taxes!

Are you ready for another leg down on the market? Are you listening to what Dollar is telling you? Two trading days? Right after 4th of July weekend? “

Now, let see how that worked out

Not too chubby, not at all – except that market participants saw my post and decided to front run me (joking), but all market did – just added to my profits on the short side…

WHY am I writing this? AM I tooting my horn? I would not care less about publicizing my good trades – I do not sell services, I do not make money on occasional Reuters publications, I have dismantled my “private site” (too much work and obligations for few extra grands per month), I am not even managing OTM (“Other people money”) right now.

The sole purpose is to explain to John Q. Public that retail trader in the bear market cannot be reactive, there are no well defined trends, there are no warnings, there are no second chances, there is no “lets do that and if it does not work – we’ll fix it later” (OH! I hated that statement in my “previous” programming life – some dimwitted idiot who caused the problem on the first place when it is time to take responsibility for his/her mistakes – the best they could do was just say: “It is not a time for a blame now, lets fix it”. Damn corrupted brain dead idiots, flawed system where people try to capitalize on low probability positive outcomes and never take time to do things “the right way” from the start. Oh well – one of the best news I had last year – and there were lots of those – a lot of big shots who were buying “AAA rated at deep discount” are foreclosing on their houses and looking for a job now and finally they hear the truth from their “other half”: “YOU are an IDIOT!” No – I am not talking about Kneale – he is just a mediocre puppet)

Okey-dokey… lets answer one sarcastic email I received after I announced my “long term vacation” from blogging. Here is a short version of that email:

“You are acting like prima donna, trying to attract attention to your useless market calls etc etc etc”.

The answer would be (thou I don’t really HAVE to reply to someone who is still on my mailing list while badmouthing me …why is that person still on the mailing list?) – I may decide to do whatever I feel like I want to do right now – it is not a job, I, as oppose to “cubicle slaves” am REALLY free to do whatever I want to do whenever I want to do that.

Now – why I cut my “blogging vacation” short? Because of the many “other kind” of emails:

“Over the years I've met some interesting investors and you rank with the best. I like your renegade style and will never forget your call, just about to the day, that the oil bubble would burst almost a year ago today. Damn, I wish I shorted it .

I wish you good luck and want to thank you for your hard work.

Bill”

[“Bill” is a patient reader and generous donor since February 2008]

“I hope everything will be well with you and your family, I am going to miss your musings a lot, you are one of the very few traders I still follow who was able to stay the course no matter what media and other “legendary” traders were mumbling. I endlessly appreciate your efforts and I learned A LOT from you, being realistic [skeptical] among many other things, not even speaking of your not so traditional charting techniques

Evelyn”

[“Evelyn” is a patient reader and generous donor since March 2007]

(I’ve never managed to personally thank those people who understand amount of hard work and dedication it takes to try to predict the market – I am using this opportunity and would like to say “THANK YOU, thank you very much” without Elvis’ intonations :) DavidDT )

THAT is one of the reasons WHY I started blogging on the first place – trading is THE MOST DIFFICULT occupation and I thought I had something to offer that might be helpful to fellow traders.

Alright – now back to business.

I will be going over a lot of charts this weekend, I have a feeling that next week will be anything but dull and I’d love to use that trading opportunity before market descent into REAL doldrums of the summer.

I will post some thoughts on the dollar, commodities and general market over the weekend.

There was a change made to mailing lists setup – posts will NOT be mailed out, sorry, you will have read it at one of my blogs [I WILL send notification when new post is up]

DavidDT

It is all starting to make a lot of sense now - on D-WAVE

Multiple timeframes have resolved counts and I am kind of pleased to see that my "presumptions" (due to incomplete minimum requirements for some waves counts) were not that far off.

Here what we have on S&P500 cash index weekly.

There are 2 alternate waves, but based on RSU staying firmly under 60 (and most of the time under 40 as well), it is a major wave down (RED ). My prior thought were that 38% would be sufficient for W4 retrace – I did not have daily wave charted due to lack of minimum required conditions. Now daily is all set and it plays well with weekly. To finish with weekly – I’d say that now it is reasonable to expect W4 to run its normal course and extend to 1120-1250 area.

As you can see on daily there 2 alternate waves as well and here RSI serves our purpose well – plus major down (RED) is in corrective final stages and presents no interest to me.

GREEN… Major UP is in W2 down which is reasonable to expect to extend down to 740-780 area – and it is “slight” disappointment to me – without seeing formed daily W2 I expected more of a surprise with less downside, I thought 847 (which by the way is still a 38% retrace) – would suffice..well – it still might and I am not discounting that possibility as of yet.

Hourly…that would be tough call if major UP (green) would not have been in final corrective stages, so we’ll take RED one instead.

it plays well with my prior 875 pullback(which already happened) and then up, thou W4 has not been defined yet (no minimum count exists yet) – so if tomorrow SPX will fail to set lower than today’s low and proceeds to 900+ area – we will know that 907-914 is around the corner.

As you recall 914.75 is my magic number and I will be VERY unhappy to see SPX above it on daily close.

So, to summarize:

Up to 907-914, down to 740-780, up 1120-1250 and then “Armageddon upon us” – but timing wise it is highly unlikely to happen this year. (As you recall monthly wave count calls for “this is just a beginning of the end” scenario.  Just to make it clear – I am no bear I am no bull I don’t really give a UFO about “where” market is going, I just want to be, in this computerized world of “What GS allowed to do none else allowed to do”, on the RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRADE)

The art of chart (SPX)

You all saw that chart many times, nothing from the past is removed (except for some not anymore needed drawings), just new drawings are being added as time passes by.

/ES S&P500 Index Futures Roadblocks

 

I’d expect SPX to be at 847 level by next Tuesday July 14th IF if will fail to close inside prior (invalidated as of today un-perfected daily buy signal during ongoing weekly perfected sell setup) risk zone.

That “yellow circle” which was on this chart for almost 2 weeks – this is where we are now. Check.

Not advocating that “TA RULES!!!”, just saying that there are some people who don’t know how to use it.

P.S. I do a lot of INTRADAY posting on DISQUS – shall anyone care for such things as calling top in OIL on June 11th 2009 or “Short GS at 149-150 on June 29th 2009 – you are welcome to subscribe. (Surely you will have to deal with some “noise” – I have lots of friends :)

P.P.S. Do everyone a favor – send Dennis Kneale email and express your deepest sympathy – that is how we treat “special” people (instead of telling them the truth), it surely not fault of his, he was just born that way.

(AMGN) Trade Quiz #2

 

As a follow up to  (AMGN) Trade Quiz here is the next question:

“Do you know what AMGN price is now?” Good – so we all made a lot of money. 

 

Unless you prefer to watch CNBC’s own Cramer who came up with yet another idea to force you to to borrow what is left of your money to bankrupt government on disadvantageous for you terms – VERY disadvantageous terms.

 http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=1173522516

Well, I guess John Q. Public deserves to lose all his money if he still watches CNBC.

Must see TV

Well, not really – I would never say that about CNBC, but David Rosenberg deserves to be watched.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1174022453&play=1

highly recommended for those delusional who still think that unemployment rate is 9.5%

Predictable action

So far market behaves the way chart is laying it out, this week has to be very interesting – I am anxious to find out where bounce will take place 875 or it will proceed to 847

Too bad we have not been entertained with CONgress/Senate sounds and visions, so as a substitute for every single event – you might want to watch this.

/ES S&P500 Index Futures Roadblocks

[AKA Support/Resistance levels]

I would expect overnight/day session low of 877 with following move up to 903.25 level.

Worth noting that as of right now /ES is right at 23.8% Fib Ret.

Chart is crowded, but does what it suppose to do – provides guidance on possible reversal points.

PPH (and biotech in few days) - short on weekly (and a lot of big pharma names look prime for substantial downside.

Longer term:
SPX - I think this is what is going to happen
it will close few days in the rows in the area of 890.35
or just proceeds directly to one of two possible scenarios:
1. down to 875.2
OR
2. down to 847.2 (most likely)
where (and it has to be watched WHEN) - it will proceed to 1020 area and this is where the next big shorting opportunity will present itself.

Latest trade signals

With Goldman Sachs allegedly having one hell of a ride with Quant Trading Code disappearance market action might just get a little more organized.

Good riddance of Queen’s Taxes!

I’d like to use this opportunity to stress out one more time that: “People have to be careful what they wish for”.

May be Queen’s taxes were better…who knows…we will yet to see to what extent we’ll be taxed for generations to come.

Are you ready? Are you? Nuh, not for taxes – you’ve been ready and agreed for a long time now..and already got use to “Bend over” command..from managers, government, everyone…and you are happy to show the middle finger when none is looking proudly whispering “I am an American! It is free country!”

Are you ready for another leg down on the market?  Are you listening to what Dollar is telling you? Two trading days? Right after 4th of July weekend?

$DXY - confirming move up within 2 trading days with max downside of 78.88

 

 

No matter on what timeframe I look I don't see any short term bearishness in $.
Here is an hourly chart - perfect retrace to 76% and I think it will take UUP as high as 25+

 

 

P.S. Nice that people catching up on identifying market idiots…the question is – when idiots will have some decency to run and hide?  And… people who are so smart now, Faber for one, where were they when it started and we tried to warn and were thrown rotten eggs at?  Now Faber is SMART?  Reminds me of Blodget who wrote the book in jail “How I f..d American Investors AKA bagholders while doing what Merrill wanted me to do”. Come on – bring up Gasparino – I want to hear: “Fuld is a stand up guy.  I know him.. I trust him…Grease anyone?” (Above statements are NOT exact and were “translated” for ease of reading)

Faber – why did not you speak up like I and a lot of us did BACK in August 2008?

Or 2007? 2006? Would not make you money, huh?  You ARE smart…

 

http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1158038818/code/cnbcplayershare

What if EVERYONE will stop watching CNBC for just 3 days? Will it be enough to put it out of business? What - no more DITECH commercials??? 

The answer I’d REALLY like to know: “Who is worse – CNBC or people who watch it?”

Time to get to “vacation cave” (it is about 43 feet long and weather is beeeeaaaauuutiful)