Saved by the bell? or the other side of day trading

Nasty outcome with ZOLT verdict (Am I glad I put a "mental note" to myself in "Attention late shoppers..." post "High risk, no more than 1/3 regular position size or daytrade.

Did just that today; at 2:50 went long @22.81 exited 3:30 @23.95, got slightly upset that did not catch that spike to almost $25 10 minutes after. Glad that decided just do day trade before even opened position. This IS a dark side of trading on technicals alone - close to impossible to follow hundreds of potential trade candidates.
Like they say: "that" happens.

Have to admit - everybody was right painting ZOLT as a short,
BUT - I want to be right LESS than I want to MAKE MONEY - I think I did it - 5% in 1.5 hours is a nice payoff.

Second roundtrip was in AVGN: opened long position at 1PM @6.04 closed 3:30 @6.22.
eased up on few profitable long positions ( might re-enter next Tuesday)
Will be continuing to ease tomorrow as well - into any strength

That said, long candidates (no tactic / price - since I figured that more then 300 daily visitors don't care about details or anything else on this site - I don't need to post price/tactic for myself - I do know it, so this site is a 100% private publicly available journal):
(DVSA) (ENER) (ENCY) (HOLX) (MFW) (TINY) (TWW)

short: (BRLI)

Good night Dave - thank you Dave

ZOLT possible short squeeze alert

Nov 29th Afternoon update - "BULLTRAP"???

There will be update on the market direction at about 2-2:30PM EST
So far I dislike what I see ( from bull prospective )

"Attention late shoppers..."

For those of you who missed a chance to add to positions today here some fresh and few "refreshed" long ideas (ordered by significance IMHO) - when you'll look at the industries they belong to you might raze eyebrows - that's OK.

(PKOH) - it is trying to penetrate weak resistance at 16.35 area
(PRKR) - 9.55-9.90 would be acceptable entry price
(OMNI) - 10:05AM tomorrow morning ( yes, this is time - what is wrong with that?)
(VDSI) - 10.90-11.10 buy price, sell if falls under 10.75
(AVGN) - on BREAKOUT above 6 and ONLY then. Sell if fails to hold $6 on close.
(FIZ) - on breakout above 13.12 (stop loss at 12.83 )
(BLTI) - buy around 8.5, sell if it'll fail to penetrate 9.05 (stop loss @8.25 )
(SGEN) - 5.3+/-
(TIV) - on breakout above 8.53 (stop loss 8.22)
(REDF) - 17.2 limit order
(COLY) - close to 12
(DVSA) - today was excellent entry price close to 10, I would not chase this stock - it prone to false breakouts, but keep an eye on it.
(NLN) - on breakout above 2.64 - have your sell order ready if it'll fail to follow through

So many stocks, so little money
How about going short on (TAM)?
DavidDT

P.S. Hope (NHWK) WILL breakout tomorrow
and
INERESTING chart we got for (ZOLT) - I would not be very surprised to see it reversing to the upside - this is soooo speculative take that I would not put in more then 1/3 of regular position size - unless it is a day trade

Afternoon update (CCC)

Looks like (CCC) is about to breakout, with its short interest it might be fun

Nov 28th morning update

Game plan for Mon/Tue proved to be the right thing to do, saved some aggravation, removed emotions out of dealing with brutal market. For today I'll extend "watch period" by adding "no trade zone" from 12:30PM till Mr. Chairman will send market on the upswing. Am I glad that Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow will not have a chance to spook the market until 4 hours later.

While you are on this site ( which is free for you, but not for me - not money wise, nor time wise), pick your Holiday Gifts out of carefully selected books and "tools of the trade" on the right side and do yourself a favor ( REALLY ) - visit AXIOM SPEAKERS site in CANADA -I have those speakers, they worth 5 times what they sell for - you'll be glad that you did.

It's time to rethink, regroup, relax...

I don't want to think about market tonight...
Moonlight sonata
Of course, since I'm listening it on AXIOM SPEAKERS listening impression will differ SLIGHTLY :)

Afternoon update and FREE IBD OFFER

Just went long on (VRGY) and (AXTI)
Blood is on the Street - I'm glad there was no surprise for me
(I was talking about "uneasy feeling" for few days now, hope it saved everybody few $$$ )

IBD offers DAILY GRAPHS free access for a week - must see

Game plan for Mon/Tue ( Treo 700P post )

As you probably noticed most of the latest "trade ideas" are on the long side breakout play. It has its advantage in overextended market rally (is it overextended? For how long will it stay in the "rally mode"? ) - and the advantage for trading breakouts IMHO is that you can setup "trade triggers" ( TDAmeritrade which has been my broker since DATEK times gives you that opportunity ) and if "activation price" is reached limit order will be activated.
But for some reason I have uneasy feeling about post Thanksgiving market mood and I'm going to slightly modify "trade triggers" tactics for the next 2 days - I will totally suspend ALL ORDERS for the first 2 hours until I get a better feel of market direction.

Plus, as post's title implies - I'm on the road now, have not had a chance to look at the latest charts, and to tell you the truth - I did not have any desire to do so, since light Holiday trading confuses my view on the "science part" on the left of the chart and leaves me totally blank on the "art part" ( right side of the chart, of course ).
As a matter of fact I closed few long positions on Friday ( with mediocre volume it was quite a torture ) and 2 day trades I did on Friday (ENCY) and (SNDA) left me totally exhausted.
DavidDT
P.S.
Treo 700P ( and 650 before ) is a life saver, I don't have to carry laptop all the time and be tied up to my "trading office". Sprint services improved greatly and EV-DO speed is amazing. I never disconnected from email and my broker. "Total freedom and confidence" and as an added bonus - if for some reason my cable moded is down - I use Treo as modem, speed is as good as DSL.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Hope everybody had a very good family sized Thanksgiving!
When I said at the table that "I'm working tomorrow" none could get it - they know I'm not. Well, I AM - tomorrow is a trading day, short one, till 1PM, but still - market open.

long ideas, but first - beware of low trading volume tomorrow - could be a lot of false breakouts fueled by retail traders. I will have very tight stops - no more then 2-3%

(AVGN) - too bad - I missed the move off 5.3-5.5 - now I'll be watching for breakout above 6.10 tomorrow.
(CHNR) - breakout above 12.5 OR pullback to 10.60
(COLY) - on breakout above 13.5 OR pullback to 12.25
(EVVV) - 17.96
(NLN) - on breakout above 2.65 OR pullback 2.15
(PANL) - on breakout above 13.15
(SGEN) on pullback to 5.35 ( I don't think it is ready to breakout yet )
(BRLI) - on breakout above 25 only, careful - I'm afraid it might be false breakout.
(RGC) - looks like it is ready to rock - on breakout above 25.18
(SNDA) - on breakout above 17.14

(CLEC) - GOES OFF LONG LIST

short:
(VAR) is still on a short list, behaves nicely so far.

Now, for those who can WAIT - 3 long "bonus numbers": (DXCM) (ATRC) (CERS)

Few VERY QUICK and HIGHLY UNTESTED

long ideas:
(ANAD) (FIZ) (TSEM) (WSTL) (DIL) (AMSWA) (PAL) (SIFY) (WRES) (MIKR) (MNTA) (UEPS) (TSS)

None of above, I think never appeared on this blog, all are "on breakout" ideas, if lagging the market - should be discarded.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

I'm in the mood for...not trading

Will just observe market action on Thanksgiving week, will keep an eye on some longs:
BUF DGII REDF GMTC CMN COGO EPIQ PKTR ASTSF TWW RGC SGEN

Hot trends, hot stocks... time to quit your job?

Every month the number of "Investment blogs" doubles, a lot of "cubicle prisoners" instead of doing they job, wondering around the floor, bothering co-workers with stories of "how they doubled their accounts in the last 4 months and they are about to quit this stinking job to become full time trade for living guy".

Is having a desire to quit day job with asshole manager good, bad, ingenious or just plain stupid? Tricky question, lets break it down.

Hate your job and manager? Time to move on to another place, but you better be damn certain that it is your manager who is an asshole and not you.

Next, speaking of becoming full time trader as oppose to making few dollars when market is good. This IS a tough decision to make. Think of not having "guaranteed" paycheck, benefits, pension (if you got one), having to pay toward Social un-Security, long term disabilities insurance .. list goes on, and the only source of income would be trading, Geez - takes all fun out of idea, isn't it?

Don't forget that in order to MAKE money you have to HAVE money -do you have $200,000.00USD hard cash ready for that? Think 2001-2002 - that is what you needed to make money in trendless markets.

Not to overlook money for at least 6-9 months to maintain your lifestyle - market sometimes does not pay on the regular basis even to the very best of traders.

I found compromise for myself, even knowing that I can survive in the stock market on the long run, I still work a little over 20 hours a week to retain corporate "goodies". Do I care about place I work for? Way less then before I found out and PROVED to myself that I can make living trading stocks, surprisingly "my place I work for" seems to care more about ME knowing that I'm not a corporate slave anymore and I HAVE A CHOICE.

Why am I saying all of that? Because I want to remind to everyone, including myself,
that HUMILITY and MODESTY are one of the most important qualities for good trader.

BE A TRADER, DON'T SAY YOU ARE.

DavidDT
P.S. I'm a sinner too, I started trading blog myself 4 months ago, but publicity or vanity was not the reason for that, I hope I'm not a "show off" type, I still drive G35 ( slightly non-cosmetically modified for better performance ).
Main reasons for starting this blog
1. Became bored with my "paper journal", plus publicly posted ideas would imply better self-discipline as well.
2. The smell of 1999 is in the air, I thought that I might benefit to all of us trying to preach awareness at all times - there is NO free lunch in the market, when we get blessed to MAKE money we need to learn to KEEP money.

Tax related activities ( answering Tagboard questions )

1. Tax related
First and foremost the good news: Institution are mostly done with tax and fiscal year end related selling, since institutions take "30 days wash sale rule" in more serious and organized way than individual investors.
The bad news: if you stuck holding underperforming, beaten down stock - do not expect it to sky rocket all in a sudden, I'd say 4 out of 5 such stocks will stay where they are for a while.

Don't be lured by market action next week, don't get excited when laggards and losers will go up - watch the volume! It will mostly be attributed to retail trading and, what is way worse, to institutional traders ( who have not left for long "weekend" ) marking up "laggards and losers" to finish exiting loosing positions or just make a "quick buck".
It is possible that the week after Thanksgiving market will see some institutional tax related sell activity, but not on the large scale, then two last trading days of November will be good for longs - tuts will be buying back stocks with good potential.
In December, especially last few trading days, retail will wake up and "cut a brunch they are sitting on" - will dump most of losers at once, good and bad and by doing so will totally miss and opportunity to capitalize on January effect ( if any ).

2. FORD - stay away, dead money, the only way I would trade this stock is if it'll breakout above $6 with good follow up day and I'd sell it right under $8 - what is so special about FORD anyways? ( In FORD case I totally ignore most of technical indicators, stock has such a small float that it can be really deceiving )

3. MRVL - I think it is in the process of establishing bottom at $17-18 area, Friday's low range was "safe" price for opening 1/2 of longer term position ( 2 to 4 months ). MRVL does not give clear signal yet, but volume close to $17+ looks interesting, it is not as high as I'd like to see, but close.
Why am I taking about MRVL which totally is "NOT THE STOCK I TRADE" - huge float, splits and so on? A lot of institutional investors will (?) be buying back into MRVL in January 2007, they can fill big orders on that type of stock, we'll see.
It is quite possible that MRVL will undergo another shake off during the last week of November - I'd use it to open or add to position - as long as it will not go far below $17.75 on close.

4. NXG - oh my... It is in the descending triangle (DT) from May, but to my surprise I've seen quite a few DTs breaking to the upside, if gold&silver will crowl higher - I would use it as a sell chance, not a buy opp.

5. CAAS - unless it is going to be able to consolidate at current level ( which I doubt even with this short interest ) I would not play Russian Roulette. Then again - the week before Thanksgiving is notoriously famous for quick money made in stocks like CAAS, me, personally - - I'd stay away and never feel sorry "that I could make easy double and did not". The most CAAS can do IMHO is to get to about $12 which does not worth the risk.

6. ZOLT - this IS high risk idea, I did state in the original post "no rush to run out and borrow $$$ to buy - UNLESS these are going to start moving on the upside - as of now they both are better shorts than longs", I hope ZOLT was not bought based on this post. It is still a "better short". My perception of becoming long on this stock is based on the same observation that some hated and fallen stock in descending triangles all in a sudden break on the upside with ferocious force.
Despite last 2 down days I do like volume - close to lowest volume for the last 6 months. What I think is going to happen on Monday - market will collapse on the open an huge volume and then reverse by 11 AM, if this is what will happen and ZOLT will follow on the upside - I'd buy 1/2 position in ZOLT ( but will keep my fingers crossed )

I'm having bad dreams

I wake up sweating and shaking, I see the same dream over and over again, it does not go away - I've been chased by "will never retire", "enough is not enough", bold old man, he is a Madman, he is a MadMoneyman, Lord have mercy on my soul, Jimmy - stop reading my blog, stop jinxing my stocks, you've done enough trying to jinx ID and NHWK, please - go away!

Marvell is written on the wall, MRVL - I asked you to buy in an afternoon post, why would not you just buy it and by happy if you make money? Nooo, some lunatic, one of the regular callers or Jimmy himself had to discover it on my blog and now the legion of r..., hmm.. - I think you know how those MadMoney fans are called by real traders, will jump in MRVL AH and spoil the trade!
That is it, from now on - this site is "MEMBERS ONLY"!

DavidDT

P.S. just kidding - not yet, but if you would not ask questions - it will be, so there will be no more lurking around.
Have a good weekend, will post on Sunday night - password will be required.
( Kidding ... or may be NOT )

Market is wrong - market is right

Someone from TradeGuild's Tagboard called today's selloff "brutal" - I respectfully disagree.

Market is a living organism and the parts are many ( and many of traders are really gifted, ingenious players - this is who we, retail traders, competing against )
Respect market, the moment you disrespect - you lose.

Housing start down - THIS IS GOOD!
Depends for who, me who was beginning to be bulling on homebuilders and such, this is a good news, inventory WILL go down, prices will stabilize.

Now - market dislikes this number - tell me something else.
We cannot really expect rally to go on for 365 days ( well, about 200 trading days )
This is healthy, orderly rebalancing/profit taking (it is - I normally sarcastic when I hear it ) going on right as I type, market will go up at the end of the day or Tuesday morning. Stay the course - long for now.

Now, question on ID - load it up,as much as I don't care for Cramer, his technicians are right - $20 is a target.

Next, use market weakness - NHWK is going up ( Is Cramer following my stocks or something? First IBD jumped all over SMSI after I post, screwing it up big time, so I had to do bunch of trades instead of 5 days trade for better profits, now - Cramer?

Good luck

AND - GET MRVL - WILL YOU?

Some ideas...

long: RGC ( short squeeze play ON BREAKOUT ) BRLI CLEC SNDA CRXL CCC VRGY CRY(6.2) FLDR NINE (4.76?)
above longs should be played using DIFFERENT BUY STRATEGIES! Questions welcome

and one short: VAR ( if it goes and stays under $51 ! )

A lot of latest ideas worked out splendidly, lets keep it going

If you think information on this blog is benefiting you - spread the word about it!

UPDATED NOV 17TH 8:43AM
NINE COLLAPSED IN PRE-MARKET TRADING, OFF THE LIST IT GOES AND PROVES THE POINT IN CASE
NEVER TRADE AH ON LONG SIDE

NHWK is ready for liftoff?

Even knowing that healthcare is kind of in the dog house I still love this stock

"Pair of Aces"

Was going over "past crowd favorites" and here are 2 deserving very close look.
"Look" it is - no rush to run out and borrow $$$ to buy - UNLESS these are going to start moving on the upside - as of now they both are better shorts than longs, can breakdown badly and suddenly, but since it is a bull market after all - all I am interested in is TURNAROUND STORY ( in PPS - not "funnymentals" )

We'll see: ZOLT and AVCI
both hated by value and any normal investor, both overpriced, both...
and then again
ZOLT and AVCI

"Messing with your mind"

Since I am a huge fan of George Carlin, find him very smart, cynical, funny and on and on... that is why I often use his phrases without any logical reason to do so.

We are in a bull market, but here comes the time when pessimists are raising eyebrows and getting ready to say: "We told you so..." Is bull run about to end? Not likely, not yet, not now... BUT market, the main purpose of which is to take our money away by using the most deceitful tactic possible, is starting to send mixed signals - starting to fly without any obvious reason ( like yesterday at about 1PM ) or fall like a rock after FOMC minutes and comes right back - bad news is a good news.

"Irrational exuberance?" Even if it is so it took 4 years since old Chairman said it.
( Was he the first who said it? I don't think so ).
So we'll stay our course (mostly long), but will stay in check and keep some spare cash on accounts.

These are long candidates ( best to worst, hmm.. or if it will not work out I will later say - worst to best )

First group of long are breakout play - that is - if they WILL breakout on good volume - get in!
AIRM HYTM OVEN SYGR VSTH ZZ SGEN

Next are "just good longs" - better price would not do much damage:
ASIA ASTSF AXTI BRLI FLDR HGSI (unusual for me long - float is big ) JSDA NTZ VICL

I'LL WAIT AND SEE HOW MARKET WILL REACT ON CPI NUMBERS

Will post at 11PM EST

While you waiting: "Are you trading for the right reason?"

ID is on target

ID completed a "circle" - to provide complete solution package, made another acquisition today - we are getting a WINNER!

The rise and fall of SMDI or "When to SELL"

Tony_r from TagBoard asked for my opinion on SMDI I wish I had a good answer...
Lets look at history of SMDI - I'm not going to bore you with my mumbling, just take a look at www.booyahboyaudit.com scroll down and read very nicely put together historical Cramer's comments and price action for SMDI.

That's history.
Since we know how it all happened by now it is easy for me to pretend that I would be able to determine time to sell and keep profits ( or at least not to sit on the dead money for long time ). But I'll do just that - will tell why I would sell at the certain point - not based on Cramer's or anyone comments, but just by "listening to the tape".
It was all fine and dandy until the week of 4/28, then from 4/28 to 7/7 SMDI started to form, lets pretend "BASE" ( market was bad so stagnant action of SMDI looked really good compared to it - no worries ).
Of course not me nor anyone else would not be able to call exact date of the beginning of the end, but still - there were IMHO reasons to worry. During above period of "base forming" volume was substantially higher on what was quite flat base, it has never decreased, was much higher on down weeks, lower on up weeks. Higher volume on a flat top tells me that A LOT of traders were getting out. And then the day of 7-3-2006 came - SMDI broke out to new high - THERE WAS NO VOLUME, next day - no follow through and it ended down. This was not the way how highly anticipated breakout of, what was still thought out of as "momentum" stock, should have occurred.
For me it was a signal: "SELL SELL SELL" - if I would be wrong - I could always buy in later on. Tax considerations would not bother me - as my accountant was saying: "Too bad that you have to pay taxes, but it is OK to make money"

What do I think of SMDI now? It is November and a lot of traders from the "top" time are at a loss, not a good incentive for any stock to go up. SIRI and XMSR left category of "momentum/crowd favorites" stocks, I might be wrong, but even in spite of growing subscribers base - SMDI potential is limited - how many chips SMDI made that yet to be used? ( Hopefully FCC regulations might add to sales -but would it be enough to push the price up?) My take would be - it will ( will it? Today's sell volume was low - leaves room for hope, hmm... let me rephrase - ease up fear of going further down ) go up in December, but it will stumble at resistance at $11 - 11.3 area.

Biotech Buyout Craze

Let see -
first RNAI - courtesy of CHELOBES from Trade Guild's TagBoard made "easy double" 96% - never mind waiting and rough ride for few weeks,
next - TNOX which yours truly discovered on Nov 5th delivered 40% never failing 8% sell rule,
today - SLXA - Sep 20th BullTrapper's find - brought good things to those who wait - 47%!
This is the past now, what about the future?

DVSA? Last few days action has something in common with TNOX behavior ( price/volume wise ). Is it still reasonably priced? It never IS - only when it goes up AFTER we buy :)
I opened position on Nov 8th at 9.21 ( correction: Nov 8th was a day trade, my position is from Nov 9th at 9.63 ), depending on tomorrows action I might try to get it at 9.07 ( I suspect it'll be shaken by MMs ) if not - I'll stay with what I have - so many biotechs so little money and most importantly NOT OVEREXTENDING IN ONE SECTOR is the name of survival game.

BullTrapper vs. SLXA

On quiet night of September 20th 2006 "ugly duckling" stock SLXA ( not to be mixed with the company!) was discovered and befriended by BullTrapper from TradeGuild investment blog. Time went by and SLXA stock came to maturity, not without "growing pain" and slight disappointments, but BT believed in it - and today SLXA became a "beautiful swan " - tender offer was made at 40% premiums, making total gain from Sep 20th 47% ( not bad for 6 weeks of "sitting and waiting" and, most importantly - BELIEVING. Congratulations to BullTrapper and great crowd from TradeGuild's TagBoard!

Few long ideas

( Monday Nov 13th evening update - if ELOS will close below 23.75 - it'll should be taken off long list )

ELOS FXEN NHWK TRX TVL

Having technical problems with blogger, post either does not go through or all in the sudden getting posted 6 times in a row. Will try one more time - if it would not work will add target prices/stops tomorrow.
Quick take on QQQQs - seems to be back on track ( based on a weekly chart ), BUT if we'll get one more "distribution day" during this week - I would begin to worry and go on cash as much as possible.

Time off...

After I hit one like TNOX futured on Sunday Nov 5th ( I did not hit it "BIG" - I respect risk control and position sizing, so it was "just" regular position ) - I have a rule NOT to trade at least on the next day, big winnings just like big losses cloud trader's judgment - enjoy your weekend - for me it starts now

Few long ideas

all long:
IFSIA HRAY HOLL DVSA FLDR WEDC MTMD FALC SYGR PGNX

Answering the comment question:
As I tried to explain in the article on the left side of the blog "My trading style" stocks I list night before (in this case - Tuesday night) are prospective candidates for the next trading day, today ( Wednesday morning) I opened positions in DVSA at 9.21 and VOCS at 16.65.

The joy and pain of been a father of teenager

Only had limited time tonight to look at the charts - I'm a proud father of beautiful, smart, stubborn, rebellious, lazy teenage girl Diana - having time of my life trying to grow up with her.

So here is a quick list in addition to the latest candidates ( some are repeated due to me thinking those are very close to potential breakout ), the truth is - it is difficult to find not overly extended stocks after such bullish day as today, at least we got that move right, I hope you benefited from today's stampede.

CERS, CRNT, VOCS, ZZ, LQDT, AXTI

PLEASE, read and re-read two posts from the left column in order to understand my approach to my "trade candidates"
1. Trading Rules
2. My Trading Style

"Market will do what we expect it to do"

"Only not when we expect it to"

Have not had a lot of time do do homework today, took my dog to the vet into emergency room, so we both are in the very unhappy mood - dog, because she hates that place, I - because for 3 minutes visit charge was $147 - may be I'll stop trading and apply for vet position.

Anyhow, after looking at the chart and analyzing stars alignment with corresponding ETFs, I think:
oil has bottomed (USO)
oil services about to breakout ( OIH )
commodities, confined to tight ascending triangle for the last month most likely will breakout on within next few days (DBC)
mining stock will follow ( XME )
biothech, underperforming last week, is about to start next leg up ( BBH, IBB)
gold will start consolidating after impressive move up last week, unless
semis is a very sad story, dead money for the last few weeks, still is (IGW)
And on and on and on...

candidates
longs, each with corresponding GTC/DAY stop limit order:
TNOX - GTC stop 14.3 limit 14.55 - something is going on
CERS - GTC stop 7.65 limit 7.72
KFI - GTC stop 19.83 limit 19.93
NL - GTC stop 11.53 limit 11.65

short,
FMCN - DAY stop 55.5 limit 55.2

Answering comment question: "

Anonymous said...

Is the limit price the price you are looking to buy above and the gtc your stop if it goes against you?"

Stop in this case is an "activation price" - I don't want ( in many cases ) to buy a stock which will be sitting at the same level or will pullback, I want to buy it after breakout

And the limit price is the MAX price I willing to pay after "stop" is activated ( in order not to pay top price and then sit on it forever )

Better place to ask questions is on the tagboard on the left side - I'll see it right away

Java script must be enabled for: neoworx-blog-tools.net in order to use tagboard

No new post till Sunday night

I think Monday/Tuesday we'll be out of the bushes with this correction on NASDAQ
Have a great weekend everybody.

Short post

Just saw that STEL profiled as long on Sep 25th was bought by Oracle for about $13.5.
Of course, it is hard to imagine that we would hold it, but on another hand - it never fluctuated more the 4% on downside, today it would be 15% - not much, but some make it in a year sitting in mutual funds ( In GOOD year )
Is it just my imagination or we see pickup in M&As?
Night all

Quick take on QQQQs direction

Since everyone has the same question on their mind...where from now?
Looking at 9 months daily chart all I can see now is that QQQQs is sill in uptrending price channel, which started in mid August, I'm not going to post chart - you can see it by just using trendlines over the tops and bottoms since mid Aug. Since 10/13/2006 QQQQs begun consolidation ( before that it was on the upper part of channel with slams to work off overbought conditions ) never violating old (Apr/May) support of about 41.5. Tomorrow or within next few day I think QQQQs are going to touch lower band of the price channel and bounce right up. Why I believe it'll bounce and not fall through on the downside? I have argument for UP as much as for DOWN - we'll have correct answer by Nov 7th. I believe the answer is "UP"

I thought I still have to give you at least one of the reasons why "UP" - today's sell off in this year big winners ( SMSI is a case ) could be attributed to mutual fund fiscal year end, MF must provide shareholders report in 60 days after fiscal year eds, most convenient time for report is beginning of calendar year - we are right at the beginning of this 60 window, so sell off might continue for a day or two and then we are clear for take off

And yet another SMSI post

Rough day, scary close, but after seen ER with 70% yearly grows rate, estimates exceeding by 3c ( 17 versus 14 projected by analysts ) and listening CC - I bought after hours at 15.1 using all available margin ( I DON'T DO THAT VERY OFTEN and I'm NOT recommending you to do THAT). I think we longs will get eagerly awaited short squeeze tomorrow and it started TONIGHT!

P.S. I was not going to do that, but then desire to pat myself on the back won the modesty battle, so I'm saying it:
"By the way - second stock from Thursday "double take ( SMSI and IIG ) added 10.6% in the very very very bad market, hitting 52WH last two days many-many-many times"

Bloody ... pardon me...

So, we do have first distribution day with indexes down more then 1% on heavy volume, we've been talking a lot about it, we tried to line up new short positions, still it always happens just like today - out of clear sky. Don't try to be a hero - lighten up and wait it out.

Morning update

ID is down on light volume - good buy opportunity
SUF is going up